Thursday, March 20, 2025

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Diminishing China Optimism, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.1 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +2.6% -1.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.54 +.02:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.5 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.17 +.12: Growth Rate +19.2% unch., P/E 29.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 27.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.6% +1.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 62.6% (+7.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 48.7%(+.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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