Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Telecom/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.6 +1.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.1 -2.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 76.1 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.7 +.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.2 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +57.4%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$202.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.0 +1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.0 +1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 213.0 +8.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.8 +3.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 146.9 +2.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points unch.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.7 +.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 87.9 -.02%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points +.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -4.75 basis points -2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 -.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 602.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.7 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.7 +1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.5 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.11 +.03:  Growth Rate +13.0% unch., P/E 20.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.56 +.21: Growth Rate +20.7% unch., P/E 28.8 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 36.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.81% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.8% +1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 55.7% (-5.2 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 47.5%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -280 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +211 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long