Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Tariff Uncertainties, Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 +5.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.4 -20.6%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.2 -2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.6 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.0 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.5 +1.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 -28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +4.4%

• NYSE Arms .74 -33.9%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$340.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.1 +2.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.0 +5.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 226.0 -1.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.9 +4.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 140.5 +2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.2 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.4 +1.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 81.8 -.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.27 -.20%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points +.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -.5 basis point +3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.5 -.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 593.0 +5.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 51.0 +2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.2 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.1 +1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.0 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +13.2% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.31 +.76:  Growth Rate +12.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.94 +.20: Growth Rate +18.8% unch., P/E 28.6 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +19.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.8% -.6 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 64.5% (-7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 55.9%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +68 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my financial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long