Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Trade War Angst, Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sector Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.9 +9.9%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.1 +140.3%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 76.1 -1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.4 +.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.1 +11.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 -14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 +26.9%

• NYSE Arms .90 -26.2%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$155.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.3 +2.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 355.7 +3.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 205.0 -8.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 +2.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 142.9 +.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points unch.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.3 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.9 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 87.9 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.0 basis points +.75 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.0 basis points +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 601.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.6 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.8 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% +.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.08 +.10:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.35 +.17: Growth Rate +20.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.1 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 unch.
• US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.81% -5.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 60.9% (+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 48.6%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -517 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +74 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long