Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.48 +.25%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.7 -3.5 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.5 +.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.1% -.1 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.35 +.04: Growth Rate +12.6% unch., P/E 20.3 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.13 +.20: Growth Rate +18.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.6
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .02 -10.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.21 -4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.8% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 70.5% (+6.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 57.3%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +382 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +125 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/tech/utility/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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