Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.25%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.2 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +.5 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.9 +1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.9 -.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.06 +.30: Growth Rate +12.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.65% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +32.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 410.21 +1.27: Growth Rate +18.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 28.1 -.9
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +8.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -27.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.41% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.4% -1.1 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 48.9% (+12.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 49.8%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -760 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -62 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts, then covered some
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment