Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Small-cap Value (-.90%)

Sector Underperformers:
Semis (-2.98%), Steel (-2.94%) and Hospitals (-2.65%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
CNMD, ISIL, NUE, IVC, XLNX, STLD, OMTR, ASIA, EPIQ, LOGI, JAKK, ALXN, WIRE, KNDL, FFIV, TSCO, HUBG, ALTR, PKY, TRH, TMO, BCR and BG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) NOV 2) RF 3) EBAY 4) BG 5) PALM

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Value (-.24%)

Sector Outperformers:
Gaming (+2.0%), Road & Rail (+1.94%) and Restaurants (+1.60%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
CS, CXG, BRY, GOLD, RTP, TOT, NUVA, ATMI, SNN, CETV, MWE, DO, NTGR, JJSF, ACOR, EBAY, TCBI, SHOO, WGOV, MICC, EQIX, AAPL, PENN, COLM, WPPGY, TRLG, TRMB, AIRM, INFY, PNRA, KNM, CMG, RCL, RSH and KNX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) ABC 2) COH 3) BRCD 4) RCL 5) LMT

Links of Interest

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Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.(CMG), the burrito chain spun off from McDonald’s Corp. in 2006, said first-quarter profit rose 47 percent, topping analysts’ estimates, as it increased prices and opened new restaurants. Denver-based Chipotle rose $4.30, or 5 percent, to $89.80 at 4:39 p.m. New York time after the earnings were announced. The shares rose 5.6 percent in regular trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

- EBay Inc.(EBAY), the most-visited U.S. e-commerce site, reported sales and profit that beat estimates, a sign that efforts to overhaul its auction and fixed-price retail site are working. The shares rose 5.4 percent.

- Qualcomm Inc.(QCOM), the world’s biggest maker of mobile-phone chips, is in “advanced” talks to settle legal disputes with Broadcom Corp. and said second-quarter sales and earnings met or beat its forecasts. Qualcomm rose as much as 6.2 percent to $42.60 in extended trading after closing at $40.12 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Broadcom shares jumped as much as 12 percent to $25.25 after closing at $22.61.

- General Motors Corp.(GM), contending with a 49 percent decline in U.S. sales this year, will idle 15 North American assembly plants for at least a week from mid-May through July, a person familiar with the plans said. The shutdown, similar to its shuttering of factories in December, January and February, is meant to control excess inventory of unsold models on dealer lots and doesn’t reflect permanent closings, said the person, who didn’t want to be identified because the plans weren’t yet public.

- The cost of protecting investors in Japanese and Australian corporate bonds declined, according to traders of credit-default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Japan index fell 10 basis points to 330 as of 9:27 am in Tokyo, according to Barclays Plc, while the Markit iTraxx Australia index was down 2.5 basis points at 332.5 as of 8:48 in Hong Kong, Citigroup Inc. prices show.

- Plan B, the emergency contraceptive pill, will be available over the counter to 17-year-old women, changing previous U.S. policy, regulators said. The Food and Drug Administration announced the expanded approval of Plan B, also known as the “morning-after pill,” in a statement today. U.S. District Judge Edward Korman ruled last month that the limit on sales without a prescription to women 18 and older should be lowered by one year.

- Short sellers are increasing bets against developing-nation stocks by the most since March 2007, a signal the biggest rally in 16 years may fizzle as profits plunge from Brazil to Taiwan. Short interest in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund, which tracks equities in 23 developing nations, climbed 51% in March, the biggest jump in two years, according to NYSE data compiled by Bloomberg. Wagers against Rio De Janeiro-based oil company Petrobras(PBR) were the highest since August 2005. The MSCI gauge, up 32% from its 2009 low on March 2, may drop 10% in coming weeks as falling earnings damp investor optimism, ING Investment Management SA’s Eric Conrads said.

- China’s stock market is “overvalued” and could tumble another 18 percent as earnings decline and loan growth slows after a record first quarter, Morgan Stanley said. “The market has rallied ahead of fundamentals,” said Morgan Stanley’s Hong Kong-based strategist Jerry Lou in a note today. Lou cut his view on China’s stocks to “cautious” from “neutral.” His target of 36.3 points for the MSCI China Index is 18 percent below the gauge’s close yesterday. Loan growth is set to fall in coming quarters, causing deterioration in macroeconomic indicators such as the purchasing manager’s index and corporate earnings, Lou said. MSCI China companies may see profits tumble 15.4 percent this year, while those on the CSI 300 Index, measuring yuan-denominated stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen, may drop 8.8 percent. Regulators are growing more concerned at credit risks and the possibility that the boom will be followed by a collapse in lending, Deutsche Bank AG said last week. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ended its recommendation last week to be “long” on China’s local-currency shares after the rally pushed the Shanghai Composite near its target. Fund manager Wang Yawei of China Asset Management Co. pared equities and raised cash holdings in his flagship fund, saying valuations are too high and the market runs the risk of an asset “bubble.”

Wall Street Journal:

- Mark down the date. Tuesday, April 21, 2009, is the moment that any chance of a new era of bipartisan respect in Washington ended. By inviting the prosecution of Bush officials for their antiterror legal advice, President Obama has injected a poison into our politics that he and the country will live to regret. Policy disputes, often bitter, are the stuff of democratic politics. Elections settle those battles, at least for a time, and Mr. Obama's victory in November has given him the right to change policies on interrogations, Guantanamo, or anything on which he can muster enough support. But at least until now, the U.S. political system has avoided the spectacle of a new Administration prosecuting its predecessor for policy disagreements. This is what happens in Argentina, Malaysia or Peru, countries where the law is treated merely as an extension of political power. If this analogy seems excessive, consider how Mr. Obama has framed the issue. He has absolved CIA operatives of any legal jeopardy, no doubt because his intelligence advisers told him how damaging that would be to CIA morale when Mr. Obama needs the agency to protect the country. But he has pointedly invited investigations against Republican legal advisers who offered their best advice at the request of CIA officials.

- Europe's economy faces a deeper recession and a slower recovery than the U.S. or other parts of the world, making it the region that is most hurting prospects for an early end to the global economic slump.The EU's economy is set to contract 4% this year, even worse than the 2.8% drop projected for the U.S., according to new forecasts published Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund. Those figures came as the U.K. released a budget that includes its biggest jump in the national debt since World War II. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, shrank by 3.3% in the first quarter -- a steep slide from a 2.1% contraction in the last quarter of 2008. Leading German economics institutes said Wednesday that the country's economy is set to contract 6% this year, which would be its worst recorded performance since 1931. European banks' losses from the global financial crisis are now projected to overtake U.S. banks' losses, according to IMF figures, which could hurt the banks' ability to lend liberally to help the bloc out of its crisis. More than half of the losses on continental Europe are homemade, the IMF said, reflecting bad loans to European firms and households rather than toxic U.S. securities. The worsening outlook for the 27-nation EU is a blow for many of the region's governments, who have argued that the U.S. is the center of the global economic storm and that Europe's problems are smaller.

- Retired dictator Fidel Castro slapped down his younger brother, Cuba's President Raúl Castro, six days after he suggested Cuba was ready to negotiate fundamental differences with the U.S. The brusque rebuke sent a clear, two-part message to the U.S.: Despite Raúl Castro having assumed Cuba's presidency last year, it's the elder Castro who continues to be in charge, especially on relations with the U.S. And the U.S. shouldn't expect Cuba to reciprocate any conciliatory actions taken by Washington.

- Top Obama administration officials went to Capitol Hill Wednesday to call for legislation curbing U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions but steered clear of specifics on how lawmakers should design such legislation. The heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Energy Department and the Transportation Department repeatedly sidestepped lawmakers' questions about how climate legislation should work, such as how to distribute the money raised by a system that effectively taxes carbon emissions; whether the bill should include provisions to encourage the development of nuclear power; and how the administration will respond if countries such as China refuse to follow the U.S. in restricting their emissions. Underscoring the concern that many lawmakers have about damaging U.S. competitiveness, another administration official—Todd Stern, the top U.S. negotiator of climate change agreements with other countries—told a Senate panel Wednesday that the administration will demand "significant, robust" reductions of emissions from China.

- The Texas state legislature is expected to soon approve one of the largest subsidy programs for solar-power in the U.S. Long a leader in oil and natural gas-based energy, Texas embraced wind power years ago and generates more electricity from wind than any other state. Building on that, the state senate on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved $500 million over five years for a rebate program to encourage solar-power installations, while a senate committee advanced a bill that would mandate a roughly 60% increase in electricity derived from renewable sources other than wind.

CNBC.com:
- Shareholders were tough on GE(GE) CEO Jeff Immelt and CFO Keith Sherin inside GE’s shareholder meeting. Shareholders accused GE, CNBC and NBC of embracing or promoting President Obama’s agenda. (video)

- Aren’t we close to Jim Cramer’s predicted bottom in housing: June 30 of this year? He put the question to Toll Brothers(TOL) CEO Robert Toll once again on Wednesday during his Back to School Tour stop at The Ohio State University in Columbus. “I don’t want to overstate it,” Toll said, Cramer hanging on his every word, “but I told you I’d give you a call when I saw things differently. And I definitely see them as different now.” Toll cited the increase over the past five weeks in “expressions of interest,” which are refundable deposits that start the home-buying process, as proof that the sector was finding its footing. The number of these deposits was better than any other time over the past year. “Now last year stunk,” Toll admitted. “But then again it sure feels good to be doing better rather than worse.” Even more positive: That strength isn’t limited to just a few areas of the country. Toll said the trend was “pretty much nationwide, except for a couple of markets that are still deader than doornails and probably will be for another year or two.” About 80% of the U.S. “seems to be on the way back.”
- The economy is not “out of the woods yet, but there are encouraging signs,” Howard Atkins, CFO of Wells Fargo(WFC), said in an interview with CNBC. We have signs that we are getting close to the bottom,” Atkins told CNBC. “We’ve got very low interest rates that’s stimulating a lot of refinancing activity, but it’s also stimulating some home purchases. About 20 to 25 percent of our mortgage originations in the first quarter were for new homes.”

- Apple(AAPL) blew past Wall Street expectations, reporting $1.33 a share against the $1.09 anticipated, on better-than-expected sales of $8.12 billion. The Street anticipated about $7.95 billion in sales.

- The US government is increasingly likely to convert a $13.4 billion loan to General Motors into common stock, sharply reducing the company's debt burden and giving taxpayers a major stake in the struggling auto maker, sources tell CNBC.

NY Times:

- A Company Plans to Market Illiquid Assets.

AOL Political Machine:

- President Barack Obama's approval ratings have declined steadily since he took office three months ago. A new poll out today shows that as the president approaches his 100th day in office, the percentage of Americans that disapprove of his job performance has reached a new high. Rasmussen Reports' Daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Obama with a 54-46 percent approval rating. The approval and disapproval numbers represent record low approval and record high disapproval for the president, respectively. Moreover, the spread between respondents that strongly approve or disapprove of Obama's job performance stands at just 34-32.

Business Week:
- Cisco’s(CSCO) Latest Consumer Play: The Smart Grid.

CNNMoney:

- As many big companies are announcing mass layoffs, these Fortune 100 employers have at least 150 openings as of mid-April.

Investors.com:

- It's not easy to navigate a business along a steady course when your customers have been rocked by severe turbulence. But that's what Advent Software (ADVS) Chief Executive Stephanie DiMarco has done as the stormy economic climate has ravaged the financial services community.

Index Universe:

- Despite warnings that speed can kill, another leading alternative exchange-traded funds sponsor is preparing to jump into the super-leveraged exchange-traded funds race. ProShares is requesting that the Securities and Exchange Commission allow it to provide up to 300% leverage and 300% inverse exposure to 37 different indexes. Rival Direxion upped the ante late last year by becoming the first to offer ETFs that aim at taking 300% leverage and inverse positions. The other major player in the leverage ETF field, Rydex, also is awaiting government approval for its 3X proposals. Meanwhile, as ProShares and Rydex sit on the sidelines, Direxion is gaining significant first-mover status in the field. Since opening the space last November, Direxion has become one of the fastest-growing ETF companies. Entering Wednesday, it had roughly $3.4 billion in assets in 16 different 3x ETFs. In fact, through March, Direxion was running neck and neck with Vanguard Group for No. 2 among ETF providers this year in terms of net inflows. You can read the latest amended ProShares filing here. The list of potential 3X benchmarks ProShares is seeking regulatory approval to consider includes:

USA Today.com:

- Some of Bernard Madoff's former investment clients have received legal requests to give back money they withdrew before his financial scam collapsed, a move that has ignited angry investor opposition. An estimated 200-plus letters seeking return of the funds were issued by Irving Picard, the court trustee appointed to recover Madoff's assets on behalf of the victimized investors, Ronnie Sue Ambrosino, coordinator of a website for Madoff victims, said Wednesday.

AP:
- Packaging Corp. of America is hardly an economic bellwether, but a boost in orders at the box maker might be among the early signs that the recession is easing. The company reported this week that orders for boxes jumped sharply in the first 10 days of April. Chief Executive Paul Stecko told analysts that it seemed as if "somebody turned the light switch on," with new orders arriving at a pace the company hadn't seen in months. But Packaging Corp.'s sales are just the kind of obscure data that economists tend to look at to gauge the economy's health. A jump in orders for boxes could mean consumer demand is finally starting to edge up, with shoppers drawing down inventories and manufacturers shipping goods to fill demand.

Reuters:

- Operator T-Mobile UK is to offer a BlackBerry phone with a year's unlimited email and Internet access and pay-as-you-go calls in exchange for a one-off fee in its bid to lure more small business and young customers.

- Political allies of the U.S. auto industry expressed serious concern on Wednesday to senior White House officials about possible carmaker bankruptcies with Chrysler LLC facing an April 30 deadline to cement an alliance to avert probable insolvency. The meeting, involving both Michigan senators and eight Democratic representatives from the industry's home state, occurred as intense alliance talks continued involving Italy's Fiat Spa, Chrysler and unions in the United States and Canada. In a joint statement, the lawmakers said they told White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and top economic adviser Larry Summers they were concerned about the risk of bankruptcies at Chrysler and General Motors Corp.
- Morgan Stanley's(MS) retail brokerage is losing advisors ahead of a planned combination with Citigroup Inc's (C) Smith Barney unit, but it is not smarting as much as Bank of America(BAC). Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley lost roughly 6 percent of their combined brokers in the first quarter. Bank of America, by comparison lost almost 12.5 percent of the advisors from both its own wealth management group and the Merrill Lynch business it acquired. The comparatively superior retention at Morgan Stanley and Smith Barney implies the joint venture is on target to surpass Merrill Lynch, once the largest brokerage in the world.

Financial Times:
- The US government wants its interventions in the banking system to be as short-lived as possible, Tim Geithner said on Wednesday. Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington ahead of the outcome of bank stress tests, the US Treasury Secretary said: ”We are designing our financial programs so we can reverse them as soon as practical and avoid the risks that come with sustained government intervention in the financial system.”

- The German economy could shrink by more than 5 per cent this year, the country’s finance minister said on Wednesday, pouring cold water on talk of an imminent return to positive growth. Speaking after a meeting of 40 business representatives, bankers, economists and trade unionists with Angela Merkel, the chancellor, and cabinet ministers, Peer Steinbrück said the country’s dismal economic performance in the past six months had made “a five before the comma not unlikely”.

China Business News:

- China’s April electricity output may fall 4%, citing Chang Jianping, deputy director of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission’s supervision department.

The Economic Times:

- Indian investors—essentially the Reserve Bank of India—have increased exposure to US government bonds by 70%—among the highest by a major Asian economy after the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. According to the data put out by the US treasury, India has increased its exposure to US government securities to $34.6 billion as on end February `09—an increase of 70% over the $20.3 billion in September 2008. During the same period, China pumped in an additional $126 billion since September to take its total exposure to $744 billion.

Business Standard:

- Office markets across the country continued to show a downward trend as most markets recorded negative growth in rental values after supply across eight major cities in India outstripped absorption by 45 per cent. Mumbai, the financial capital of India, witnessed the sharpest decline in rental values in the first quarter of 2009 while the National Capital Region witnessed significant decline in rental values in central business district in the first quarter of 2009, according to Cushman & Wakefield’s latest office market report. Micro markets of Mumbai including those of Lower Parel and Worli recorded drops of 37 per cent and 29 per cent respectively from a three per cent and 13 per cent drop respectively in the preceding three months. Rentals in central business district of Nariman Point fell by 13 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared to 20 per cent in the previous quarter. Rentals in NCR’s CBD, mainly Connaught Place dropped by 17 per cent, the highest in the last 3 years, the property consultant said in the report. The drop comes after a 14 per cent decline in the previous quarter. Bangalore rentals fell in the manageable range of three to seven per cent in key markets.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Sell on (BPT), target $47.

- Reiterated Buy on (EQIX), target $95.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.33%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (BDK)/.08

- (CME)/3.21

- (EMC)/.16

- (GR)/1.06

- (HSY)/.35

- (IGT)/.22

- (NUE)/-.57

- (STI)/-.63

- (MAR)/.13

- (LLL)/1.64

- (UNP)/.66

- (ESV)/1.51

- (ESI)/1.41

- (DO)/2.21

- (AN)/.16

- (ABC)/.88

- (ALXN)/.14

- (CNX)/.94

- (RCL)/-.33

- (FITB)/-.28

- (RTN)/1.01

- (PM)/.70

- (ZMH)/.94

- (UPS)/.56

- (COP)/.41

- (BNI)/.96

- (NFLX)/.31

- (KLAC)/-.27

- (CAKE)/.10

- (MSFT)/.39

- (CB)/1.37

- (CF)/.60

- (WDC)/.12

- (AMGN)/1.14

- (JNPR)/.17

- (WFR)/-.04

- (AMZN)/.31

- (BUCY)/.68

- (AXP)/.13

- (YRCW)/-1.86

- (DV)/.66

- (MHK)/-.85

- DECK)/.64

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 640K versus 610K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 6120K versus 6022K prior.

10:00 am EST

- Existing Home Sales for March are estimated to fall to 4.65M versus 4.72M in February.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Susquehanna Consumer Forum, (JNJ) shareholders meeting and (HUM) stockholders’ meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Mixed as Gains in Tech, Alt Energy and Steel Shares Offset Losses in Financial, REIT and Insurance Stocks

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In Play

Stocks Mostly Higher into Final Hour on Less Economic Pessimism, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Diminishing Credit Market Angst

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I haven’t traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling 1.3% and is very high at 36.65. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 114.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .74. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.54 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.27. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.71% today to 154.66 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 3.08% to 185.23 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising 1.1% to 97 basis points. The TED spread is now down 366 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling 1.95% to 63.0 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling .95% to 90 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up 9 basis points to 1.33%, which is down 131 basis points since July 7th. The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .13%, which is down 1 basis point today. Nikkei futures indicate an +230 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +20 open in Germany tomorrow. Many market-leading stocks are soaring much more than the major averages today. I continue to see many significant technical breakouts in a number of different sectors. As well, the MS Cyclical Index is jumping 6.1% today. Considering the 1.2% decline in the Bank Index, today’s broad market gains are more impressive. One of my longs, (AAPL), reports after the close. The put/call open interest ratio for the stock is .94, which is at the high-end of its 2-year range. Moreover, AAPL’s short interest ratio is .85, which is at the highest level since last September. I plan to add to my long position in the stock on any meaningful weakness from current levels ahead of new product announcements, likely p/e multiple expansion and improving consumer spending this fall. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less credit market angst, diminishing economic fear, investment manager performance anxiety and bargain-hunting.