BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Financial longs, Biotech longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I added to my (ASEI) long this morning and took profits in another long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is slightly above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -2.43% and is above average at 18.88. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 146.0 and the total put/call is below average at .68. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.47 at its intraday peak, and is currently .76. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -4.67% to 58.98 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.54% to 78.70 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is up +1 basis point to 20 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th, 2008. The 2-year swap spread is falling -2.23% to 27.38 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 10 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +4 basis points to 2.41%, which is down -24 basis points since July 7th, 2008. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is down -1 basis point today. There are an unusual number of stocks rising on above-average volume again today for a flat broad market. The MS Cyclical Index is rising +1.04%. Education, Homebuilding, Construction, Bank, Steel, Gold, Ag, Energy, Oil Tanker and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. (XLF) is trading well again today as the euro financial sector cds index drops to the lowest level since May 2008, which is a large positive.The Western European Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index is dropping another -3.13% to 64.47 basis points, which is also a large positive. On the negative side, select tech leaders are relatively weak again and oil continues to grind higher.Despite the major averages consolidating recent gains, I continue to see a number of small/mid-cap stocks stage technical breakouts on volume.This is a healthy development.Nikkei futures indicate an +140 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +2 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, technical buying, buyout speculation and less financial sector pessimism.
- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain 8 percent after it jumped to a 15-month high, said Mary Ann Bartels, a Bank of America Corp.(BAC) technical analyst. The advance in the first two days of this year lifted the S&P 500 out of a 3 percent range where trading was confined for most of November and December. The “breakout,” with more stocks rising than falling, suggests the index will climb to as much as 1,230, Bartels said. New York-based Bartels, ranked second among analysts who study price charts in Institutional Investor magazine’s most recent survey, predicted three months ago that the market might slump as much as 20 percent from its September peak before resuming its gains. Since then, the S&P 500 lost as much as 5.6 percent from an Oct. 19 high, then rallied to complete a 23 percent increase for the year.
- Orange-juice futures surged to a two- year high on speculation that freezing weather will reduce citrus crops in Florida, the world’s biggest producer of the fruit after Brazil. Last night’s freeze may have damaged less than 1 percent of the crop, said Dale Mohler, an AccuWeather Inc. meteorologist. Colder weather forecast for the early hours of Jan. 10 and Jan. 11 may harm 2 percent to 5 percent of the crop, he said. Oranges can be ruined when exposed for too long to temperatures below 28 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 2.2 degrees Celsius). Prices are up on “concern over cold, freezing weather conditions possibly adversely affecting the orange crop, and the size, by what could be a significant amount,” said Carlos Sanchez, a CPM Group associate research director in New York.
- As Congress moves to reform U.S. financial regulation, key senators are nearing bipartisan agreement on stripping the Federal Reserve of its authority to supervise banks, two people familiar with the matter said. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, in charge of shepherding reform legislation through the Senate, has introduced a bill aimed at preventing a recurrence of the 2008 financial crisis that shook economies worldwide. The outlook for that legislation and Dodd's handling of it shifted suddenly on Wednesday, however, with news that he has decided not to seek re-election in November. "Dodd is freed up to do what he thinks is good policy not good politics," said a financial services industry executive.
- Citigroup's(C) credit default swap (CDS) spreads point to likely upside for the stock, according to an analyst report published Wednesday. Kelly argues the market's perception of diminished credit risk for Citigroup is not reflected in the stock. "With CDS implying that Citi will continue as a going concern we have to believe that if any of this confidence is reflected in the stock then we will see it move higher," he writes.