Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on profit-taking, rising sovereign debt angst, mounting US housing concerns, increasing financial sector pessimism and China worries. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,148.67 +2.05%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,148.67 +2.05%
  
• DJIA 10,860.26 +2.38%
  
• NASDAQ 2,381.22 +2.83%
  
• Russell 2000 671.01 +3.0%
  
• Wilshire 5000 11,860.84 +2.13%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 517.62 +2.59%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 585.42 +1.53%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 704.42 +2.10%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 885.03 +1.92%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 586.89 +2.63%
  
• Transports 4,515.01 +1.84%
  
• Utilities 399.93 +2.25%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.80 +1.69%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 982.20 +.66%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 854.30 +.34%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 817.86 -1.30%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +99,365 +1.11%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +424 +155
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 13.0 +18.2%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +43,900 -9.18%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,324,114 -.92%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -7.87%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.18 -1.67%
  
• ISE Sentiment 144.0 +60.0%
  
• NYSE Arms .52 -72.04%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 21.71 -1.36%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.95 +4.35%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 9,310.43 +1.09%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.803 Trillion -.4%
  
• AAII % Bulls 44.97 -11.63%
  
• AAII % Bears 25.40 +4.70%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 283.63 +1.42%
  
• Crude Oil 76.49 +2.27%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 194.71 +1.47%
  
• Natural Gas 3.88 -3.10%
  
• Heating Oil 213.06 +1.43%
  
• Gold 1,298.10 +1.72%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 225.45 +2.31%
  
• Copper 361.80 +2.92%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 329.67 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,326 Yuan/Ton -2.35%
• S&P GSCI Agriculture 416.76 +1.09%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 122.20 -.33%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.70 +5.0 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 74.3% chance of no change, 25.7% chance of 25 basis point cut on 11/3
• US Dollar Index 79.39 -2.46%
  
• Yield Curve 217.0 -10 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.60% -14 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.290 Trillion +.49%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.48 +4.48%
• U.S. Municipal CDS Index 213.50 -6.85%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 155.42 -.54%
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84% +6 basis points
  
• TED Spread 15.0 +1 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 109.63 +5.64%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 128.76 +11.62%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 230.84 -4.27%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 259.0 +10 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.757 Trillion -.77%
• Business Loans 604.10 -.10%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 463,300 -.7%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.5% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.37% unch.
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 790.60 -1.36%
  
• ABC Consumer Confidence -46 -3 points
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.7% -20 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $2.71/gallon -.03/gallon
  
• U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 30.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 2,461 -10.08%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 unch.
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 240,013 +16.03%
  
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 85.65 -.09%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.36%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.53%

Leading Sectors

• Education +5.02%
• Coal +4.62%
• Semis +4.35%
• Alt Energy +4.32%
• Internet +4.22%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks -.04%
• REITs -.10%
• Papers -.26%
  
• Oil Tankers -.31%
• Software -1.04%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.0 +3.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 112.50 unch.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (KBH)/-.17

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for August are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• Durables Ex Transports for August are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -3.8% decline in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for August are estimated to rise to 295K versus 276K in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Duke speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Plosser speaking and the Fed's Bernanke speaking could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-.27%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers -1.34% 2) Gold -1.18% 3) Road & Rail -.83%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CPRT, TIF, CSIQ, MBLX, VRTX, FST, STD, OXY, USB, GSK, SU, SI, MICC, ZUMZ, BMR and O
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BBBY 2) PNC 3) ATHR 4) NE 5) TXT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TXI 2) GS 3) CUZ 4) GRB 5) LZ
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth (+.56%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.27% 2) Education +1.12% 3) Retail +.49%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ASYS, NVDA, BBBY, PBR, SCHL, SVNT, BSI and EW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) EW 3) RHT 4) HUM 5) VPRT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MCD 2) AAPL 3) SBUX 4) RHT 5) BA