Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth fears, China-Japan/Mideast tensions, rising Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, technical selling and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,513.17 +.68%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,513.17 +.68%

• DJIA 14,009.79 +.82%

• NASDAQ 3,179.10 +.93%

• Russell 2000 911.20 +.66%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 395.12 +.58%

• Russell 1000 Growth 693.07 +.63%

• Russell 1000 Value 768.98 +.65%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 901.94 +1.34%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,123.23 -.25%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 728.41 -.59%

• Transports 5,857.23 -.22%

• Utilities 474.53 +.95%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 97.06 -.90%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.34 +.53%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,117.21 +.38%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 828.93 +.56%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 172,132 +.51%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 416 -657

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 41.9 -16.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 267,989 +8.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,553,636 +4.1%

• Total Put/Call .90 +3.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.20 +66.6%

• ISE Sentiment 108.0 -32.1%

• NYSE Arms .85 +41.7%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.90 +.08%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.42 -1.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.82 -.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,2989.41 -.17%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.695 Trillion unch.

• AAII % Bulls 48.0 -8.2%

• AAII % Bears 24.3 unch.

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 305.07 +1.92%

• Crude Oil 97.77 +1.75%

• Reformulated Gasoline 305.36 +5.79%

• Natural Gas 3.30 -4.18%

• Heating Oil 316.06 +3.1%

• Gold 1,670.60 +.77%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 219.66 +1.57%

• Copper 378.45 +3.41%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 153.20 USD/Ton +3.10%

• Lumber 362.70 +1.23%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,600.13 +1.80%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 8.3% +110 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4991 -9.73%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.85 +.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.1 -26.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/20

• US Dollar Index 79.12 -.77%

• Yield Curve 175.0 +8 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.01% +6 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.991 Trillion -.09%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.50 +.24%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 161.0 -.79%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 102.37 +3.75%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 171.86 +8.73%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.76 +6.18%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 506.25 +7.57%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 389.0 +10 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57% +5 basis points

• TED Spread 23.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.82 +2.14%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 145.40 +6.82%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 227.10 +6.62%
  

• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.471 Trillion +.61%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,124.90 -.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 352,000 +200

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.53% +11 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 822.10 -8.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.5 -1.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.9% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.46/gallon +.13/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 750.0 -6.01%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,142.40 +.89%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 238,789 -4.25%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.16%

Leading Sectors

• I-Banks +3.8%
• Energy +2.9%
• Steel +2.5%
• Oil Service +2.3%
• Telecom +1.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Networking -2.1% 
• Coal -2.5%
• Computer Hardware -2.7%
• Defense -2.7%
• Disk Drives -5.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (30)

• FURX, WMS, MGAM, FSL, ADNC, UIS, HES, CIA, PFMT, GK, FTNT, VCBI, ALGN, IIIN, ABAX, ENDP, JDSU, MAN, EVR, CPRT, TSCO, FIVE, AVY, DHI, CRR, MANH, CXS, NLNK, RHI and STAN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (30)

• LMT, PII, AMZN, INGR, BCO, KLIC, CBF, CNQR, ASH, PETM, AVB, WBSN, NOW, NEU, HAR, NTGR, TWC, CODE, CPSI, JOSB, EXPO, MW, CEVA, CBT, STZ, LXK, RDEN, VMW, LQDT and LTM

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Financial/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 12.74 -10.78%
  

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -3.62%

• Total Put/Call .86 -5.49%

• NYSE Arms .94 -14.17%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.42 -2.72%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 145.57 -.62%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 102.0 -.79%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 225.42 -2.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 -.75 bp

• TED Spread 23.5 +.25 bp

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -2.25 bps

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp

• Yield Curve 173.0 +1 bp

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $153.2/Metric Tonne +.46%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.1 -.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +104 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.83%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -1.20% 2) Disk Drives -1.15% 3) Retail +.13%
  

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• HA, RL, COH, FIO, BCS, CVI, SD, CTCM, TWC, LTM, NMM, SDR, ALKS, VPRT, HTSI, BCO, DWRE, CPSI, SIMO, BCR, OPLK, NOV, GNC, PKI, MRK, MW, WYNN, PER, MCK, SDT, CHTR, AON, AT, CAB, BRLI and BCO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RL 2) GDI 3) NOV 4) IYT 5) HOG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HTSI 2) BA 3) RBN 4) POT 5) VALE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.79%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Insurance +1.59% 2) Banks +1.27% 3) Software +1.23%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DELL, ADNC, CTRP, PRGO, MTW, CAVM, CB, CRR, MTW, RDEN, PRGO, DELL and RGA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RAD 2) ALL 3) MAT 4) UUP 5) CAVM
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) T 2) CB 3) CVX 4) MSFT 5) BEN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume