Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Philippines Declares Calamity as Fresh Storm Approaches. Philippine President Benigno Aquino declared a state of calamity to speed aid to areas ravaged by Super Typhoon Haiyan, which may have killed more than 10,000 people, as rain from a new storm complicated relief efforts. The government has 18.7 billion pesos ($429 million) to fund reconstruction after Haiyan unleashed storm surges and gale-force winds that caused vast destruction, Aquino said yesterday in a televised address. The devastation may harm the economy, the government said. The storm affected as many as 9.7 million people, according to authorities, and 22 countries have pledged assistance. Soldiers were dispatched to prevent looting as survivors scoured for food.
  • China to Take Iron Ore Pricing Control From Miners, Banga Says. China will take control of iron ore pricing in the next two years as rising supplies of the steelmaking commodity return bargaining power to buyers, former Noble Group Ltd. Vice Chairman Harry Banga said. Prices of the second-biggest seaborne commodity will fall to between $95 and $110 a metric ton, said Banga, who in May started The Caravel Group Ltd. The product traded at $135.90 a ton at the Chinese port of Tianjin yesterday. Mine expansions by producers including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) will push the market into a surplus next year, and the 82 million-ton glut will be the most since at least 2008, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in August. The shift in bargaining power may also spur an expansion of the iron ore securities market in Asia, Banga said. 
  • Asian Stocks Advance as Yen Declines With Crude Oil, Gold. Asian stocks rose, led by Japanese shares, as the yen weakened against all its major peers. Crude and gold declined, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched the highest level in seven weeks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo.
  • Rebar Swings as Investors Await Outcome of China’s Party Plenum. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai swung between gains and losses today as investors await the conclusion of a four-day Communist Party meeting. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, swung between a gain 0.4 percent and a loss of 0.3 percent before trading little changed at 3,663 yuan ($601) a metric ton at 10:15 a.m. local time.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Andrew Huszar: Confessions of a Quantitative Easer. We went on a bond-buying spree that was supposed to help Main Street. Instead, it was a feast for Wall Street. I can only say: I'm sorry, America. As a former Federal Reserve official, I was responsible for executing the centerpiece program of the Fed's first plunge into the bond-buying experiment known as quantitative easing. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I've come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.
Fox News: 
  • US Marines land in Philippines to aid typhoon survivors. U.S. Marines landed Monday at some of the worst-hit areas of the Philippines, bringing water, generators and other critical supplies to survivors of Friday's deadly typhoon that may have taken as many as 10,000 lives.
CNBC: 
  • Is the shoeshine boy indicator flashing red? Joseph P Kennedy is quoted as saying that he knew in 1929 that Wall Street was overly optimistic and a crash was on its way when he started to get stock tips from his shoeshine boy. Is the current rush of mom-and-pop investors back into stocks a similar signal of a correction to come? Some analysts are pointing with concern to data, such as the Yale Crash Confidence Index for individual investors which measures the likelihood of a stock market crash in the next six months as an example of a "contrarian indicator" – where increased optimism or activity in one area is sign of a forthcoming downturn. Since June, it has shown more than 30 percent of investors feel confident the stock market won't crash within six months, after mostly languishing below that level since 2007
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
  • Moody's says European telco sales to fall again next year. Europe's telecom operators will see a fifth year of revenue decline in 2014, although operating margins will stabilise, helped by cost cutting and the end of regulatory cuts to mobile call termination fees, credit rating agency Moody's said. In the absence of top-line growth, Moody's kept the negative outlook on the sector it has had since 2011 despite its view the industry was "nearing the bottom" and would soon benefit from consumers' growing appetite for surfing the web on the go.
Financial Times:
  • CICC Forecasts China to Cut Growth Target Next Near to 7%. China may lower its growth target to 7% next year as the nation implements structural reforms following the Communist party plenary meeting that started on Saturday and concludes today, citing a report by China International Capital Corp. CICC's analysts led by chief economist Peng Wensheng says the lower growth target would lead the central bank to keep a tighter monetary policy stance, a shift that seems to have started already.
Economic Information Daily:
  • China May Raise Bar for LGFV to Issue Debt. China may raise the bar for financing vehicles bond sales out of concern over local government debt risk, citing a person close to National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors. Cities that are not classified as provincial-level or central government-administered municipalities won't be able to sell debt on the interbank market, the report said. Companies also can't sell bonds if the local governments where they are located have debt-asset ratio exceeding 100%, the report says.
Evening Recommendations
 Jefferies:
  • Rated (QCOM) Outperform, target $80.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.0 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.75 -1.25 basis points. 
  • FTSE-100 futures +.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DHI)/.40
  • (DISH)/.43
  • (DF)/.14
  • (MBI)/.15
  • (YRCW)/.59
  • (PBPB)/.09
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October is estimated to fall to 93.5 versus 93.9 in September.
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for September is estimated to rise to .15 versus .14 in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, UK CPI, 3Y T-Note auction, China FDI, weekly retail sales reports, Wells Fargo Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Cowen Metals/Mining/Materials Conference, Stephens Fall Investment Conference, BofA Banking/Financial Services Conference, Jefferies Energy Conference, Barclays Automotive Conference, RBC Tech/Media/Telecom Conference and the (YUM) China same-store-sales could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, November 11, 2013

Stocks Rising Slightly into Final Hour on Less European Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst, Retail/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.47 -3.33%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.68 +.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.61 +2.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.56 -4.98%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 +4.90%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -3.61%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +74.05% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.46 -.45%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.62 -2.47%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.17 -1.99%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 299.69 -.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 19.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  • Yield Curve 244.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $135.90/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.90 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.20 +2.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +77 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headilnes

Bloomberg:
  • China New-Credit Drop Shows Shadow-Finance Curbs as Leaders Meet. China’s broadest measure of new credit fell by more than estimated in October, suggesting authorities are trying to keep shadow-finance risks in check as leaders map out a blueprint to sustain growth. Aggregate financing was 856.4 billion yuan ($140.6 billion), the People’s Bank of China said yesterday in Beijing, below all nine projections in a Bloomberg News survey. New local-currency loans of 506.1 billion yuan compared with the 580 billion yuan median estimate of analysts. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 14.3 percent from a year earlier
  • ICBC Faces Capital Surcharge as Deutsche Bank, Citigroup Fall. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. was added to a list of too-big-to-fail banks that must set aside additional capital to guard against losses as part a global regulator’s plans to protect the economy. ICBC was the only firm joining the Financial Stability Board’s annual list of too-big-to-fail banks, which it produces in preparation for capital rules scheduled to be phased in starting in 2016. Other changes include lower surcharges for Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), and Citigroup Inc. (C:US), which both drop out of the top category and Bank of New York Mellon Corp.
  • European Stocks Rise as Grifols Gains, BSkyB Sinks. European stocks advanced, extending five weeks of gains, amid takeovers by health-care companies and better-than-forecast industrial output in China. Grifols SA jumped 4.5 percent after agreeing to buy a unit from Novartis AG and Shire Plc climbed after saying it will acquire ViroPharma Inc. Lonmin Plc increased 3.9 percent as the world’s third-largest platinum producer returned to profit. British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc plunged the most in five years after BT Group Plc won the rights to broadcast UEFA Champions League and Europa League soccer games. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3 percent to 323.57 at the close of trading in London, as three shares advanced for each one that fell.
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Decline for 8th Day as Rupee Sinks. Emerging-market stocks retreated for an eighth day, poised for the longest slide since 2006, as a decline in India’s rupee to an eight-week low sank the nation’s shares and spurred concern capital inflows will slow. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased 0.3 percent to 992.41 at 11:43 a.m. in New York. The S&P BSE Sensex (SENSEX) fell for a fifth day on speculation the rupee’s slump will deter the central bank from easing liquidity curbs. The Borsa Istanbul National 100 Index dropped to the lowest level in two months, led by Akbank TAS. Philippine shares slid the most since Sept. 30 after the nation was battered by Super Typhoon Haiyan. 
  • Brent Crude Gains After Meeting Ends Without Iran Accord. Brent for December settlement climbed 74 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $105.86 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 2:02 p.m. in New York. The volume of all futures traded was 4.8 percent more than the 100-day average. The contract touched $102.98 on Nov. 8, the least since July 2.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Shire Buys ViroPharma(VPHM) for $4.2 Billion. Purchase Boosts Drug Maker's Rare-Diseases Portfolio. Shire PLC has agreed to buy ViroPharma Inc. for $4.2 billion, extending its bet on the market for medicines treating rare diseases.
MarketWatch:
CNBC: 
  • Obamacare a single-payer ploy, says ex-GOP Senator. (video) If opponents of Obamacare were to succeed and the president's health-care law collapsed, what would take its place? Former Gov. Ed Rendell predicted Monday that a system like Medicare for everyone would emerge. "If Republicans and some Democrats who are attacking Obamacare have their way and Obamacare falls off, I think we're looking at single-payer down the road," the Pennsylvania Democrat told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
  • Citing economy, pension worries, Fitch downgrades Chicago. (video) Fitch Ratings cut Chicago's bond ratings on Friday, citing the city's sluggish economy and its inability to find a solution to its union pension obligations. The credit ratings agency said it downgraded $8 billion in Chicago's unlimited tax general obligation (ULTGO) bonds to A- from AA-. It also cut $497.3 million sales tax bonds to A- from AA-, and downgraded $200 million commercial paper notes, 2002 program series A (tax exempt) and B (taxable) to BBB from A. Fitch said its rating outlook on the city's securities is "negative." 
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
  • Brevan Howard Overtakes Man Group As Europe’s Largest Hedge Fund. Brevan Howard is now the largest hedge fund manager in Europe, surpassing Man Group PLC which was last year’s biggest manager and is this year’s number two, with $40 billion total assets under management according to a report from The Hedge Fund Journal listing the 50 largest European hedge funds. The top five is rounded out by BlueCrest Capital Management, BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK), and Winton Capital Management.
USA Today:
Reuters: 
  • EBRD cuts forecasts for Central European, North African economies. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development cut its growth forecasts for central and eastern Europe and North Africa on Monday, citing weak demand for their exports and unfinished reforms. Deflationary pressures were also coming from the euro zone, but internal risks of deflation were limited, the bank's chief economist said. The EBRD's forecasts for its regions of operation included a drop of half a percentage point for the biggest economy, Russia.
Financial Times:
  • Canada’s housing market ‘teeters precariously,’ Financial Times warns. The Financial Times is warning that Canada’s housing market is “perched precariously at its peak.” The publication has taken a close look at what some observers say is among the frothiest markets in the world, citing the cranes that dot Toronto’s skyline and the record debt burden of Canadian families.
Telegraph:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.17%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -1.1% 2) Gold & Silver -.84% 3) Disk Drives -.73%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • IEP, CRUS, MRIN, DNR, WGO, AEIS, AGCO, FWLT, FE, ACET, BANC, FWM, QUAD, RVBD, SLH, TXTR, PERI, EMES, NS, DIOD, UBNT, VSAT, KOP, RALY, NUS, NCR and FE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KRE 2) RDN 3) YRCW 4) ARO 5) UTX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JPM 2) VLO 3) SCHW 4) KLAC 5) CRUS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.19%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +.97% 2) Computer Services +.95% 3) Gaming +.91%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VPHM, GOGO, GRFS, EZPW, ABFS, AEGR, DDD, JASO, FUEL, GTAT and SSYS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VPHM 2) ANR 3) AEGR 4) FE 5) ABFS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RIG 2) AMTD 3) CCL 4) BA 5) IBM
Charts:

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Iranian Nuclear Accord Prospects Clouded as French Object. Envoys from Iran and world powers may not agree to an accord today that would ease the decade-long dispute over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, an Iranian official said. Participants are likely to issue a joint statement and meet again in 14 days, said the Iranian official, who asked not to be named because of the talks’ sensitivity. At the same time, talks continued behind closed doors in Geneva, with little information emerging to help separate posturing and negotiating tactics from high-stakes bargaining among top diplomats from the seven countries involved, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 
  • Hong Kong Luxury Property Prices Choked by Tightening. Hong Kong businessman Raymond Chiu says he has perfect credit and is prepared to spend about HK$16 million ($2 million) on a 1,000-square-foot apartment in the city’s Mid-Levels residential area. There’s just one catch. The government requires a 50 percent down payment. That’s “really putting us off,” said Chiu, 45, who owns an information technology consulting company. “I run a business so cash flow is important. It’s frustrating because this is non-negotiable, though I have perfect credit history.”
  • Euro Recovery Seen Fizzling as Growth Crawl Supports Draghi Cut. Euro-area growth data this week may show the region’s nascent recovery slowing to a crawl, supporting Mario Draghi’s case for an interest-rate cut to help the economy get back to its feet. Gross domestic product in the region rose just 0.1 percent in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. In the 3 1/2 hours before that report on Nov. 14, economists predict a series of data releases to show growth slowing in Germany and stalling in France, with Italy remaining mired in an unprecedented slump
  • Chinese Developers Decline on Tightening Fears. Chinese developer shares fell the most in two weeks amid concerns that Beijing and Shanghai will implement new measures to curb demand and rising property prices, prompting other cities to follow suit. An index tracking property companies listed in Shanghai fell as much as 3.1 percent and was 2.5 percent lower at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, heading for its biggest decline since Oct. 25. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.2 percent.
  • Asian Stocks Outside Japan Fall Before China Plenum Ends. Asian stocks outside Japan fell as investors await the conclusion tomorrow of a meeting of China’s leaders on economic reform. Japanese equities rose after better-than-expected U.S. payrolls data weakened the yen. Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc., an operator of supermarkets and department stores controlled by billionaire John Gokongwei, slumped 5.4 percent on its trading debut following the largest Philippine initial public offering. Nexon Co., a maker of online games, plunged 22 percent in Tokyo after its net-income forecast missed estimates. Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets 47 percent of its revenue in North America, added 1.7 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 0.5 percent to 467.63 as of 12:56 p.m. in Hong Kong.
  • Rebar Falls Amid Concern That Property Curbs May Reduce Demand. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell amid concern that the Chinese government is strengthening measures to rein in the property market, reducing demand for the building material. Rebar for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, fell as much as 0.8 percent to 3,633 yuan ($596) a metric ton, before trading at 3,643 yuan at 10:07 a.m. local time. Futures declined 0.3 percent last week.
  • Facebook(FB) Director Andreessen’s Firm Sells Third of Shares. Facebook Inc. (FB) Director Marc Andreessen’s venture-capital firm sold a third of its holdings in the world’s biggest social-networking service after the stock price reached a record last month. Andreessen Horowitz sold 2.28 million shares on Nov. 6, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. The shares were sold at about $49 to $50 apiece, making the divestment worth more than $111 million, the data show. The firm still holds 4.57 million shares
  • BofA(BAC) Should Pay $863 Million in Fannie Mae Case: U.S. Bank of America Corp. should pay the maximum penalty of $863 million for selling defective loans to Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), given the egregiousness of the fraud, U.S. prosecutors told a federal judge. Bank of America’s Countrywide unit was found liable by a jury in Manhattan federal court last month for selling the government-sponsored entities thousands of defective loans in the first mortgage-fraud case brought by the U.S. to go to trial.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Big Banks May Block Traders From Chat Rooms. Big banks are considering blocking employees from computer chat rooms that have become pervasive tools of the modern trading floor, but which face mounting scrutiny from regulators as potential venues for collusion and market manipulation. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group AG are discussing internally whether to disable computerized chat rooms that electronically link traders across multiple banks and are used by tens of thousands of employees globally, according to people familiar with the discussions. 
  • Stocks Regain Broad Appeal. Individual Investors Are Returning to Stocks, Which Could be Bad. Five years after the financial crisis, individual investors are piling into stocks again amid signs that the U.S. economy is slowly gaining steam. The buyers, many with investment portfolios that were scorched during the market meltdown, are climbing aboard a ride to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But the renewed optimism among retail investors is considered by many professionals to be a warning sign, thanks to a long history of Main Street arriving late to market rallies.
  • 'Long-Only' Funds Lose Their Hedge'Long-Only' Funds Lose Their Hedge. What do you call a hedge fund that doesn't hedge? The latest growth area for the industry. On the heels of a multiyear market rally, a slew of hedge-fund firms are launching "long-only" funds betting that at least some stocks have further to climb. The moves come amid a brutal stretch for short bets against companies, traditionally a key strategy for hedge funds. The new funds also represent a shift by hedge-fund managers—known for their sophisticated tactics and exclusivity—into the kind of old-fashioned stock picking more associated with Main Street mutual funds.
  • Vive La France on Iran. The French save the West from a very bad nuclear deal with Iran. We never thought we'd say this, but thank heaven for French foreign-policy exceptionalism. At least for the time being, François Hollande's Socialist government has saved the West from a deal that would all but guarantee that Iran becomes a nuclear power.
  • Healthcare.junk. Scam artists are filling the vacuum left by the Obama website failure. So the national embarrassment known as Healthcare.gov and the 36 federal ObamaCare exchanges won't be fixed by the end of November after all, notwithstanding a month of assurances from the White House.
Fox News:
  • Senate suggests even tougher sanctions on Iran until final deal reached on nuclear freezeSenate leaders showed bipartisan support Sunday for tougher sanctions on Iran following failed talks this weekend toward curtailing that country’s nuclear-development program, but also indicated they would likely wait until after talking to Secretary of State John Kerry. Kerry and other Western leaders wrapped up talks Sunday after failing to agree on a deal, which purportedly stalled when France rejected a list of demands on Iran because they were too generous to mean an easing of international sanctions.
CNBC: 
  • Foreign buyers are getting in on US energy boom. Foreign investors are emerging as the biggest beneficiaries of the unfolding U.S. energy revolution—underscoring how the landscape is being dominated by small, nimble players profiting where oil majors seemingly cannot. 
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
New York Times:
  • New China Cities: Shoddy Homes, Broken Hope. Three years ago, the Shanghai World Expo featured this newly built town as a model for how China would move from being a land of farms to a land of cities. In a dazzling pavilion visited by more than a million people, visitors learned how farmers were being given a new life through a fair-and-square deal that did not cost them anything.
Reuters: 
  • China inflation hits 8-month high amid tightening fear. China's annual inflation climbed to an eight-month high of 3.2 percent in October as food costs soared, fanning market worries about policy tightening as factory output and investment data pointed to signs of stabilisation in the economy. Inflation, which quickened slightly from 3.1 percent in September, was still lower than a median forecast of 3.3 percent in a Reuters poll and was below the official target of 3.5 percent for 2013.
  • U.S. senator to block Obama's nominations over BenghaziU.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Sunday said he will try to block White House nominations for key jobs until he gets more information on last year's attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, even after a TV network pulled back from a story on the attack that Graham had cited. Graham has threatened to block President Barack Obama's nominations of Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve and Jeh Johnson to head the Department of Homeland Security until the administration provides more information on how the attack occurred.
Financial Times:
  • ECB split stokes German backlash fears. Divisions at the heart of the European Central Bank over last week’s rate cut have revived fears in Frankfurt of a German popular backlash against the bank’s policy making, even as the ECB faces decisions critical to the eurozone’s future. People involved in the policy debates said divisions between northern and southern representatives on the ECB board have been mounting since market pressures on the eurozone relaxed, with council members freed up to revert to national interests.
Telegraph: 
Bild:
  • ECB President Draghi Abuses Euro-System, Ifo's Sinn Says. Mario Draghi "abusing" euro-system to give southern European countries cheap loans they wouldn't otherwise get on capital markets, Hans-Werner Sinn, head of German economic institute Ifo tells Bild in an interview.
CNA:
  • TSMC's Chang Says Inventories May Take Longer to Digest. TSMC Chairman and CEO Morris Chang says it will take longer than previously expected for inventories in the industry's supply chain to adjust to more normal levels.
Xinhua:
  • China Auto Industry Capacity 'Far Exceeds' Demand. Overcapacity indicates outlook for local market won't be "optimistic" in the next few years, citing He Liming, head of China Automobile Dealers Association. As new production capacity is commissioned, price wars will become more likely.
China Daily:
  • China Must Deepen Reform to Sustain Growth. Third Plenum of China's Communist Party is "sounding the horn to comprehensively deepen reform" as the country seeks to sustain growth, the party's mouthpiece, says in a commentary. China needs a new engine of growth and reduce its reliance on "crude investment," the commentary said. China's government needs to separate interests and power and use the market to spur economic vitality, it said. Ruling party needs to find a way for "self-purification" and improve its management of the country, the commentary said.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Should Aim to Start Property Tax Nationwide in 2015. China should aim to start a tax on individuals' property nationwide in 2015, citing a report from the government think tank China Center for International Economic Exchanges. The nation may revise a tax on coal and other resources in 2015 to levy based on prices, instead of volume as done currently, the report said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Bullish commentary on (GLF), (LLL), (HBI), (XRX), (DVN), (AEO) and (IP).
  • Bearish commentary on (DDD), (SSYS), (XONE) and (VJET).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.25 -1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 111.0 +3.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.41%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (WLH)/.30
  • (BID)/-.47
  • (RAX)/.16
  • (NWSA)/.02
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japanese 30Y Bond Auction, CSFB Healthcare Conference, (CG) investor day and the (NCR) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.