Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as rising long-term rates, Fed taper fears, profit-taking and increasing emerging markets/European debt angst offsets seasonality, investor performance angst and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,805.o9 -.04%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,805.o9 -.04%

• DJIA 16,o20.20 -.41%

• NASDAQ 4,062.52 +.07%

• Russell 2000 1,131.38 -1.0%

• S&P 500 High Beta 29.27 -.44%

• Wilshire 5000 18,930.84 -.09%

• Russell 1000 Growth 840.34 -.07%

• Russell 1000 Value 906.95 +.05%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 441.96 +.09%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,409.51 -1.61%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 874.07 +.73%

• Transports 7,200.41 -.49%

• Utilities 490.29 +.65%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 102.83 -3.79%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.62 -1.43%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,141.52 -.64%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 947.03 -.37%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 193,738 -1.21%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -169 -784

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 24.0 -8.01%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 307,539-1.79%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,636,454 +.98%

• Total Put/Call .86 +6.17%

• OEX Put/Call 2.96 +294.67%

• ISE Sentiment 148.0 -9.76%

• NYSE Arms .87 -32.56%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.79 +.66%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.08 -7.74%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.27 +.73%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.16 +3.74%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,922.53 -1.36%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.702 Trillion +.90%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.356 Billion -222.71%

• AAII % Bulls 42.6 -9.9%

• AAII % Bears 27.6 -2.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 278.66 +1.37%

• Crude Oil 97.65 +5.25%

• Reformulated Gasoline 272.69 +2.34%

• Natural Gas 4.11 +4.05%

• Heating Oil 305.65 +.69%

• Gold 1,229.0 -1.81%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.22 +1.30%

• Copper 324.85 +.56%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 360.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 139.20 USD/Ton -.22%

• Lumber 344.80 -5.48%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,377.47 -.61%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.9% +20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1818 +1.56%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.19 +.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.50 +25.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.70 +1.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/18

• US Dollar Index 80.31 -.41%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.08 +1.30%

• Yield Curve 255.0 +9 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.86% +12 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.889 Trillion +.17%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.03 -1.24%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 169.0 -9.28%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 64.0 +6.67%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 106.19 -.29%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 239.50 +2.12%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 103.0 -5.07%

• Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 622.41 -2.12%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 337.75 -12.75 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12% -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.5 +.25 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 +4.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.97 +.60%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 100.94 +3.97%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 291.88 -.44%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 110.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.619 Trillion +.31%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,049.80 -.90%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 322,300 -9,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.46% +17 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 392.10 -12.8%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.30 +2.4 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% +40 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.26/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,145 +24.78%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,055.34 -1.02%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +6.67%

• Rail Freight Carloads 207,888 -22.36%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +4.7%

• Networking +2.8%

• Coal +2.7%

• Computer Hardware +2.3%

• Disk Drives +2.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Retail -2.5% 

• Alt Energy -3.1%

• Education -3.1%

• Airlines -4.3%

• Gold & Silver -6.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• OMED, PBYI, MEI, CONN, BRE, GIII, PGI, FRX and VRNT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)

• SP, DFRG, BOBE, TAHO, ECOL, IMKTA, TAXI, OSIR, MYGN, LDOS, BIG, TITN, EXPR, KKD, CIE and SHLD

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Diminished Fed Taper Fears, Yen Weakness, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.89 -7.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.91 +1.28%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.20 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.68 -3.89%

• ISE Sentiment Index 210.0 +61.54%

• Total Put/Call .90 +16.88%

• NYSE Arms .80 -26.70% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.30 -4.31%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.84 -1.57%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.0 +6.67%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 291.25 -2.68%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 18.50 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +1 basis point

• Yield Curve 256.0 -1 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $139.20/Metric Tonne -.22%
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.50 +16.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.70 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +290 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.42%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -.91% 2) Oil Tankers -.78% 3) Coal -.45%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GMLP, ULTA, RALY, NDLS, BIG, FIVE, SEAC, COO, PFPT, BKS, OSIS, BITA, UBNT, CEQP, AEO, NOG, IDT, FLT, NGL, YOKU, GTLS, GPS, BCO, FDO, CUB and FSS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FOX 2) BKS 3) AEO 4) ISRG 5) CHRW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BKS 2) GPS 3) BG 4) LULU 5) FANG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.98%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +2.16% 2) Computer Hardware +1.55% 3) Construction +1.23%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AGX, XXIA, ROC, CONN, LL, UIS, ANAC and EA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EPI 2) JDSU 3) DAN 4) KMX 5) SWHC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SHLD 2) AAPL 3) NOC 4) INTC 5) LNKD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume