Monday, May 19, 2014

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukraine Forces Fight Rebels as Separatists Prepare Vote. Ukrainian forces fought insurgents in the country’s east, killing one rebel and losing a police station, as separatists prepared for a fall election after declaring independence and saying they want to join Russia. Masked men set fire to a candidate’s regional campaign office before a May 25 presidential ballot as government troops and insurgents skirmished in Ukraine’s Donbass regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The separatists, who hold buildings and radio and television towers in about 15 cities, said they’d hold a vote, possibly around Sept. 14, to elect new officials for their self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic.” 
  • Carney Says Rising House Prices Are Biggest Risk to U.K. Economy. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney identified surging housing prices as the biggest risk to the U.K. economy in his strongest warning about the property market. In a sign policy makers soon may respond to the price gain, Carney said housing in the U.K. has “deep, deep structural problems,” according to excerpts of an interview that will be televised tomorrow on Sky News’s “Murnaghan” show. Home prices jumped almost 11 percent in April, the biggest annual gain since 2007, according to Nationwide Building Society. While Carney has downplayed raising interest rates to cool off the housing market, he highlighted its economic threat. “The biggest risk to financial stability, and therefore to the durability of the expansion, those risks center in the housing market and that’s why we are focused on that,” he said.
  • Nigeria Attack Kills 29 People as Boko Haram Plan Agreed. Suspected Boko Haram militants attacked a market in northeastern Nigeria, killing 29 people, as African nations and France agreed on a joint plan to fight the Islamist group. The deaths occurred in northeast Ngurosoye village in the Bama region this morning, said Senator Ahmed Zanna, who represents the area. Boko Haram, which means “western education is a sin” in the Hausa language, has conducted a violent campaign since 2009 to impose Islamic law in Africa’s top oil producer. 
  • Toasts Turn to Water Cannons as China, Vietnam Spar on High Seas. The crews from the Vietnamese and Chinese coast guards shook hands and took photos as they met last month, sharing platters of fruit and raising their glasses for a toast. Now, they are in a tense standoff in the South China Sea.
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Ringgit, Nickel Climb; Wheat Slides. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index slipping a second trading day, while Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened after the economy grew faster than economists estimated. Nickel extended its advance amid a reinvigoration of concerns over supply, as wheat led grain futures lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent by 9:58 am. in Tokyo, with the S&P/ASX 200 Index in Sydney and Seoul’s Kospi gauge down at least 0.3 percent.
  • Euro Drops for Second Week as Growth Concern Sparks Bond Selloff. The euro had the biggest two-week decline against the dollar since November as increased concern that the area’s economy is struggling to accelerate sparked selloffs in bonds issued by Greece and Portugal. The yen rallied the most versus the dollar among the 16 major currencies as Japan’s economy grew at the faster pace since 2011, while the Swiss franc lost the most on speculation the central bank may raise its adjust its currency cap in response to any unconventional easing from the European Central Bank. India’s rupee topped gains in emerging-market currencies as Sonia Gandhi conceded an election to Narendra Modi’s opposition bloc before final results next week. 
  • Clinton Bears Responsibility Over Benghazi, Cheney Says. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton bears responsibility for the attacks on a U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya, and will be held accountable should she run for president in 2016, former Vice President Dick Cheney said. “It’s a major issue,” Cheney, who served under President George W. Bush, said in an interview on the “Fox News Sunday” TV program. “I don’t think we’ve heard the last of it yet.”
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Our Top 100 Hedge Funds. Equity funds came roaring back into style in 2013, particularly those with a tight focus on a short list of stocks. But what are the fund plays for 2014?
MarketWatch.com: 
  • Blackstone(BX) to sell Boston towers for $2.1 billion. Blackstone Group LP has agreed to sell five Boston-area high-rise office towers to a venture led by Canadian real estate investor Oxford Properties Group for about $2.1 billion, according to multiple people familiar with the deal.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Hedge fund manager Chanos wary of Japan PM's plans to rearm. Prominent hedge fund manager Jim Chanos on Friday called Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe the most dangerous figure in Asia, citing his plans to rearm his country. Abe could destabilize the region more than what any Chinese leaders are doing, said Chanos, who heads Kynikos Associates, at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference here. He was responding when asked to name the most dangerous person in Asia.
  • AT&T(T) to buy DirecTV for $48.5 billion as cellular growth eases. AT&T plans to pay $48.5 billion to buy DirecTV, the top U.S. satellite TV operator, in a bid for growth beyond an increasingly competitive cellular market.
Financial Times:
  • Bundled debt demand reaching levels of height of crisis. Sales of bundled US corporate debt known as collateralised loan obligations are on course to surpass levels reached at the height of the credit bubble, as the relentless search for yield leads investors to abandon caution. The sales illustrate the rise in risk-taking by investors recently burnt in the financial crisis. In addition to renewed appetite for CLOs, private equity firms are buying out companies at record highs and investors are snapping up repackaged subprime UK mortgages that lenders are eager to get off their books.
Telegraph:
Yomiuri:
  • Japan May Send Defense Force Units to Southwest Islands. Japan considers deployed troops in southwestern islands Amami Oshima, Miyako and Ishigaki to step up defense in the regions. Japan may send 350 self-defense force personnel to each of the three islands.
China Securities Journal:
  • China Researcher Sees 2Q Export Growth at About 5%. China's export and import growth will maintain a low to medium speed in 2Q, State Information Center writes. 2Q import growth expected at around 4.5%. Chinese economy faces downward pressure.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Bullish commentary on (WAG), (OIS), (TGI), (AMTD), (AVP), (PBI) and (EQIX).
  • Bearish commentary on (WWE).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 +1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.50 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CPB)/.59
  • (VAL)/1.04
  • (URBN)/.27
  • (HTZ)/.09
Economic Releases 
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • (BHB) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Eurzone construction data, RBA minutes, UBS Oil/Gas Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference and the (SGY) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (audio)
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as Russia/Ukraine tensions, global growth fears and rising emerging markets/European debt angst offset technical buying, central bank hopes and short-covering. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,877.86 -.03%*
 photo laq_zps66897319.png


 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,877.86 -.03%
  • DJIA 16,491.30 -.56%
  • NASDAQ 4,090.58 +.46%
  • Russell 2000 1,102.91 -.39%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 30.72 -.49%
  • Wilshire 5000 19,610.30 -.05%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 870.26 +.23%
  • Russell 1000 Value 950.83 -.29%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 454.22 -.57%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,517.10 -.02%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 904.34 +1.14%
  • Transports 7,719.30 +.27%
  • Utilities 537.78 -.33%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.20 -.70%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.71 +2.45%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,154.38 -.24%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 963.37 -.64%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 218,170 +.23%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -145 -250
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 34.48 -24.96%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 387,739 +1.21%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,627,403 -.67%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -2.13%
  • OEX Put/Call .60 -65.32%
  • ISE Sentiment 98.0 +2.08%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 -14.08%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.44 -3.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.62 -1.61%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.27 +2.96%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.20 -1.64%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 10,971.31 -.47%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.588 Trillion -.12%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.963 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 33.1 +16.9%
  • AAII % Bears 22.6 -21.1%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 305.92 +.45%
  • Crude Oil 101.02 +1.99%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 297.35 +2.60%
  • Natural Gas 4.41 -2.65%
  • Heating Oil 295.36 +1.53%
  • Gold 1,293.40 +.27%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.70 +1.14%
  • Copper 314.70 +1.94%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 371.80 USD/Ton -.85%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.70 USD/Ton -1.95%
  • Lumber 324.20 -5.48%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,527.43 -1.13%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.9% +40 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0748 +20.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.49 +.28%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.30 +6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.20 +.2 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/18
  • US Dollar Index 80.04 +.22%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.0 -.86%
  • Yield Curve 216.0 -8 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.52% -10 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.294 Trillion +.79%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.27 +3.13%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 156.0 +9.10%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 35.64 +9.95%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 84.65 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 231.57 +.34%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.50 -5.65%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 232.10 -12.69%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.70 -.02%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% unch.
  • TED Spread 21.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 -2.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.91 +1.03%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.03 +4.53%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 269.32 unch.
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 89.0 +5.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $2.808 Trillion +1.14%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,038.20 -.40%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 323,250 -1,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.20% -1 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 363,400 +3.56%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 34.9 -2.2 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% +60 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.65/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1021.0 +2.41%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,086.19 unch.
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 267,283 -.03%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Road & Rail +2.5%
  • Computer Hardware +2.2%
  • Steel +2.2%
  • Internet +1.6%
  • Telecom +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Construction -1.7% 
  • Alt Energy -2.0%
  • I-Banking -2.2%
  • Oil Service -2.9%
  • 3D Printing -4.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (13)
  • GTIV, PPO, OSIR, RAX, PF, MYRG, IRM, BBOX, BLT, EVDY, ORA, TUES and CSC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)
  • CECE, URS, SIR, TUMI, DRQ, FOSL, PGEM, TTI, TRAK, POST, TTWO, CBPX, AIRM, EXAM, ACAT, PRO, UBNT, UVE, ACXM, FF, JGW, FUEL, RDEN, DXPE and INSY
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Retail/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.43 -5.62%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.07 -.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.20 -2.17%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.0 -4.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -1.08%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -7.92%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 -40.63% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.72 -.49%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.03 -1.57%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.64 -.28%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 85.25 +.95%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 269.99 -.25%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.70 +.65%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 216.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $100.70/Metric Tonne -2.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.30 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -25.20 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +59 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Crisis Echoes 1914, German Ex-Leader Schmidt Says. The Ukraine crisis reverberating across Europe recalls 1914 before the outbreak of World War I as Russia, the U.S. and European governments risk sleepwalking into conflict, said former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. “I don’t want to encourage a third world war and especially not calls for more money for arms for NATO,” Schmidt, 95, was cited as saying in an interview with Germany’s best-selling Bild newspaper today. “But the danger that the situation intensifies as in 1914 is growing day by day.” 
  • China Orders Interbank Lending Curbs to Quell Shadow Debt. The Chinese government ordered lenders to curb interbank borrowing in the latest effort to check growth in the informal shadow-banking industry that threatens to undermine the nation’s financial system. A commercial bank should limit its interbank borrowing to less than a third of its liabilities, while its lending to another financial firm shouldn’t exceed 50 percent of its Tier 1 capital, according to a statement on the People’s Bank of China’s website yesterday. Financial institutions need to better manage the maturity of interbank funding and control liquidity risks, the PBOC said. “Given that interbank financing has been important in funding the business of some lenders, the rules will limit overall lending in the economy, not just in the market,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole, wrote in an e-mail. “While much needed to control the risk in the banking system, they are a medium-term negative for the growth outlook.”
  • China’s Small-Cap Stocks Enter Bear Market on Slowdown. China’s small-company stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index down more than 20 percent from its February peak, on concern valuations are too high as the economy slows and new share offerings divert funds. The ChiNext index dropped 2.2 percent to 1,226.47 at the close in Shenzhen, entering a bear market after tumbling 21 percent from a record high of 1,558.62 on Feb. 17. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 5.5 percent during the period. Bocom International Holdings Co. and UBS AG predict further losses for the ChiNext as a housing slump adds risks to an economy that analysts predict will grow at the slowest pace in 24 years. 
  • Hong Kong Growth Cools to Slowest Pace Since 2012 on Exports. Hong Kong’s economy grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace since a contraction in 2012 because of weakness in exports. Gross domestic product expanded 0.2 percent from the previous three months, the government said in a statement on its website today. That was less than the 0.4 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 11 economists.
  • Most European Stocks Decline as Travel Companies Retreat. Most European stocks dropped, following the Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s largest decline in a month yesterday, as travel-and-leisure companies slid after TUI AG reported a wider loss and auto-related shares slipped. TUI AG fell 2.5 percent after the tour operator’s loss before interest, taxes and amortization widened. Renault SA and Daimler AG each retreated more than 1 percent as a report showed European car sales slowed. Banco Espirito Santo SA decreased 5.5 percent as it announced a capital increase. Bouygues SA (EN) climbed 4.4 percent after a report that Orange SA has studied buying Bouygues Telecom. The Stoxx 600 added 0.1 percent to 338.99 at the close of trading as more than three stocks retreated for every two that advanced
  • Euro Drops as Peripheral Bonds’ Fall Boosts Economic Concern. The euro fell against most of its major peers as investors sold peripheral government bonds amid speculation the region’s economy remains sluggish. “The story is a bearish one for the euro,” Vassili Serebriakov, a New York-based foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA, said by phone. “There’s scope to build up euro shorts. We see the market starting to position that way starting last week.”
  • Bullard Says Fed Closer to Goals Than Any Time in Five Years. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed is closer to its goals for employment and inflation than at any time in five years, helping to warrant its tapering of record stimulus. “Fed goals are within sight,” Bullard, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, said today in Little Rock, Arkansas. “This helps to justify the FOMC’s tapering of asset purchases,” he said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. 
  • Blankfein Sees Concern in Guilty Plea by Any Global Bank. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein said he understands the concern over the potential impact to the financial markets of any global bank pleading guilty to a crime. “There’s concern being shown, and I don’t magnify it, but I don’t minimize it either,” Blankfein said today in an interview after the New York-based firm’s annual shareholder meeting in Irving, Texas. “You hope it’s not existential, and you hope there’s not a knock-on effect to that.”
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Exclusive: Iran pursues ballistic missile work, complicating nuclear talks. Despite apparently reducing illicit purchases that breach U.N. sanctions, Iran is pursuing development of ballistic missiles, a confidential U.N. report says, posing an acute challenge to six powers negotiating with Tehran to rein in its nuclear program. On Sunday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described as "stupid and idiotic" Western expectations for his country to curb its missile program. He decreed mass production of ballistic weapons, striking a defiant tone just before nuclear talks resumed on Wednesday in Vienna. The high-stakes negotiations aim for a deal by a July 20 deadline to end a long stand-off that has raised the risk of a wider Middle East war.
  • Exclusive: German industry sees 'irreparable damage' from Russia sanctions. Europe's showdown with Moscow over Ukraine is already having a major impact on German business in Russia and imposing economic sanctions would cause lasting damage to industry, a confidential paper sent to the German government by a business lobby warns. The paper from the German-Russian chamber of foreign trade, a group representing 800 companies that provides support to German firms operating in Russia, underscores the extent of concern among German businesses over the Ukraine crisis. It also suggests industry is stepping up efforts to dissuade Chancellor Angela Merkel's government from pressing ahead with tougher sanctions.
Telegraph: