Stocks Reversing Lower into Close on Terrorism Fears, Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Oil Decline, Transport/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.17 +10.09%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.73 +.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.71 +.28%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.07 +2.96%

• ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -52.54%

• Total Put/Call 1.03 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +76.41% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.13 +.73%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,275.0 -2.69%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.50 -1.63%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.27 +1.38%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 67.95 +.99%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.05 +1.10%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.04 -.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 20.25 -1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -51.75 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.25 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .21% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 124.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $41.13/Metric Tonne -2.63%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.70 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.20 -7.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.5 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 -1.0 basis point
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 1.81 +.21

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -130 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -65 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Fitch Warns Emerging Markets of Brazil-Like Mess on Debt. As if political turmoil, commodity-price meltdown and growth hiccups aren’t enough, emerging markets face a threat to their creditworthiness from an entirely different area -- the burgeoning debt of households and companies. Private-sector borrowing as a proportion of gross domestic product will reach 77 percent by the end of this year in seven large developing nations, Fitch Ratings said in a report Wednesday. Such liabilities have exceeded government debt levels, exposing their economies and financial systems to “downside risks,” London-based analysts Ed Parker and James McCormack said. The countries -- Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Mexico -- are seeing an increase in their private-debt burden in 2015 because of currency depreciation, according to the report. That may weigh on their governments’ credit ratings through weaker GDP growth, worsening budget deficits, pressure on foreign-currency reserves or further exchange-rate fluctuations, Fitch said. “Private-sector debt has often migrated to sovereign balance sheets in past financial crises,” the analysts wrote. “A stress situation could feed through to pressure on sovereign creditworthiness.”
• China Said to Peg Local Debt Swap Program at 15 Trillion Yuan. China plans to expand the size of its program for addressing high-cost local government debt to about 15 trillion yuan, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told a closed-door meeting last month, according to a person who attended the gathering. The initiative to swap high-yielding local debt into cheaper municipal bonds is set to run through the end of 2017, Lou said, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because the remarks weren’t public. Officials were previously reported to have approved about 4 trillion yuan for this year. Expanding the effort would help buttress the finances of local governments that are key to implementing infrastructure projects needed to fulfill the leadership’s goals for economic growth. The total cited through 2017 would cover more than half of the 24 trillion yuan of debt local authorities had accumulated as of the end of 2014, according to state news agency Xinhua. "This is another effort to stabilize economic expansion," said Zheng Lingyi, a Beijing-based bond analyst at China Securities Co. The plan would indicate that local government finances are "under heavy pressure," Zheng also said.
• The Biggest Mexico Bond Default in 20 Years Looms. As far as bond traders are concerned, Empresas ICA SAB’s missed interest payment this week is just a prelude to what’s likely to be the biggest default in Mexico in at least two decades. On Monday, the builder said it will use a 30-day grace period to make a $31 million interest payment on $700 million of its notes. The announcement triggered a tumble in the $1.35 billion of overseas bonds issued by Mexico’s largest construction company, leaving the securities down 73 percent this year.
• VTech Falls to Lowest Since 2012 After Millions of Kids Hacked. VTech Holdings Ltd. fell to a three-year low after the Hong Kong-based company said hackers who infiltrated its online services gained access to the profiles of more than 6 million children. Almost half of the 4.9 million parent accounts that were accessed belonged to users in the U.S., the maker of children’s electronic toys, smartwatches and computer tablets said in an online post. No credit card information was stolen, the company said. About 6.4 million children’s profiles were accessed, with almost half containing information -- names, gender and birth dates -- from kids in the U.S. “Regretfully our database was not as secure as it should have been,” VTech said in the updated post. “We have appointed data security legal specialists who are in the process of liaising with local authorities.”  
• World's Top Oil Traders Don't Expect Recovery Any Time Soon. The world’s largest independent oil traders said supplies will overwhelm demand into next year and prices may not rally until 2017, painting a gloomy outlook for energy-rich nations as OPEC gathers to discuss output policy. Their market view indicates that the 12-member group -- and the oil industry as a whole -- will have to endure a much longer slump than the downturn that followed the 2008 financial crisis, when prices recovered within a year. "The stock-build will continue to weigh on the market, with prices unlikely to move beyond the current range until well into 2017," said Chris Bake, a senior executive at Vitol Group, the biggest independent oil trader. Benchmark Brent crude has traded between $43 and $65 a barrel over the past six months. That outlook is echoed by rival trading houses including Trafigura Pte Ltd. and Gunvor Group Ltd. as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia and others pump full-throttle to defend market share. 
• Is Big Oil the New Big Tobacco? A cartoon circulating on Twitter carries a warning for the oil industry. There’s Joe Camel, retired tobacco spokes-animal, suave as ever in a tuxedo, cigarette dangling from his smiling snout. In his hand, a pack of smokes with a twist -- an Exxon Mobil Corp. logo on the wrapper. “Big Oil: The New Big Tobacco,” reads the caption. Activists have been urging investors for years to pull money out of the fossil-fuel producers blamed for much of the world’s warming. Joe Camel’s new role shows the movement has an even broader target: not just the industry’s money, but its reputation. With envoys gathered in Paris this week for a United Nations summit on climate change, there are signs -- from coal-plant closures to the death of the Keystone XL pipeline -- that the effort is bearing fruit. “That pariah status is growing,” Bill McKibben, a founder of climate advocacy group 350.org, said in an interview. “The fossil-fuel industry remains incredibly strong -- they are super-rich -- but they are not so invincible as they thought they were.”
• Fed's Lockhart Says Interest-Rate Liftoff Case Is `Compelling'. (video) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said he favors raising interest rates this month, adding to signs that the central bank will proceed with its first increase since 2006. “Absent information that drastically changes the economic picture and outlook, I feel the case for liftoff is compelling,” Lockhart said Wednesday in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
• Credit Suisse Is Now the Most Cautious It's Been on Equities Since 2008. (video) A stock bull turns bear(ish). It's been just a few weeks since Credit Suisse released its 2016 forecast for the S&P 500, and already the bank is downgrading it. "We reduce our weighting in equities to a small overweight, our most bearish strategic stance on the asset class in seven years," Credit Suisse analysts, led by Andrew Garthwaite, said in their 2016 global equity strategy outlook published today. It's a change of stance for Garthwaite, who has long been bullish on stocks, predicting in mid-2013 that the S&P 500 would rise 15 percent to hit 1,900 in 2014 (it did). In fact, and as noted above, it's a tweak to Credit Suisse's most recent call for the index, too. In mid-November, the bank reiterated its previous call for the S&P 500 to reach 2,200 by the middle of next year. But the analysts seem to have since changed their minds and now expect the index to trade at 2,150 both at midyear and at the end of 2016, which would equate to a rise of just over 2 percent from the S&P's current levels. Why the change? The firm sees a few reasons, which it addressed in previous notes but has apparently become more worried about in recent days and weeks. Here are some of the key concerns:
• Few Takers for Junk Bond Plunge. Sinkholes are popping up in the credit market. Specific junk bonds are simply plummeting in value on little trading. For example, nothing all that obvious triggered a plunge in Syniverse Holdings, whose bonds fell to 39 cents on the dollar Monday, from 84.25 cents less than a month earlier. Debt of Intelsat, United States Steel, SandRidge Energy and Ultra Petroleum all lost about 30 percent last month. Yet looking broadly, there isn’t a financial crisis in developed markets. U.S. stocks are still eking out gains. Companies are still issuing bonds. So why the precipitous drops without warning?
• Hedge Funds Brace for Redemptions. (video) When BlueCrest Capital Management told investors Tuesday it would no longer oversee money for outsiders, one thing founder Michael Platt didn’t mention was that clients had already pulled billions of dollars this year. Platt, who cited client demands and pressure on fees as a reason for his decision, isn’t alone in feeling the heat from investors. Firms including Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC and Mason Capital Management have seen cash flee this year, and others such as Fortress Investment Group LLC’s macro funds business shut down after redemptions and losses.
• Online Doctor Visits Help Hospital Chain See Patients at Home. Community Health Systems Inc. figures its patients don’t always want to go to one of its almost 200 hospitals when they’re feeling ill. The hospital system has struck a deal with American Well Corp. to offer online doctor visits for patients with colds or other minor ailments. The agreement is the latest piece of Community Health’s strategy to add more ways for its customers to see a physician, in addition to urgent-care clinics and doctors’ offices. “We’ve been seeing that shift, as everyone has, from inpatient care to other points of care,” said Lynn Simon, Community Health’s president of clinical services and chief quality officer. “People are really moving towards convenience and easy access.” Initially, the companies are offering the Web visits in Oklahoma and Washington. They plan to expand them to parts of Arizona and Pennsylvania by the end of March, and to other areas later on.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Fed’s Yellen Expresses Confidence in U.S. Economy Ahead of December Meeting by Jon Hilsenrath. Fed chief says gains in labor market bolster her confidence that inflation will return to 2%. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen expressed confidence that the U.S. economy is likely to register continued modest growth, falling unemployment and a small pickup in inflation toward the central bank’s 2% target, a sign she is ready to raise short-term interest rates later this month barring a surprise in markets or the economy.

Breaking News:

• San Bernardino, California Mass Shooting Updates.

Zero Hedge:

• Mass Shooting, Active Shooter In California - San Bernardino Fire Officials Report 20 Victims.
• Russia Threatens "Retaliatory Action" After NATO Expands Alliance For First Time In Six Years.
• Charting The Fed's "Devotion To The American People". (graph)
• WTI Crude Crashes Below $40 On OPEC Delegate "No Cut" Comments. (graph)
• The Emerging Market Growth Model Is "Broken"; RIP EM. (graph)
• "Buy The Dips! What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" Axel Merk Warns "A Hell Of A Lot"
• Look Out Below: The Real Economy Just Hit Stall Speed. (graph)
• The Biggest Problem For Europe's Small Businesses: "Finding Customers". (graph)
• The Lull Before The Storm - It's Getting Narrow At The Top, Part 2. (graph)
• ADP Employment Rises, Beats By Most In 2015, Fed Confirms Job Mandate Has Been Met. (graph)

@Breaking911:

• CA. ACTIVE SHOOTING:-12 Dead-3 Gunmen in Ski Masks, Body Armor.

Reuters:

• Kinder Morgan(KMI) on hook for $171 mln judgment tied to El Paso deal. Energy Pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc is on the hook for the bulk of $171 million in damages owed to investors in an affiliate of El Paso Corp, which Kinder Morgan acquired in 2014, a Delaware judge ruled on Wednesday.

CBCnews:

• Alberta's consumer debt delinquencies spike as nation's hit record low. People in Alberta, Saskatchewan, N.L. hit by energy sector slump struggling with debt, Equifax report says. 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 

• Small-Cap Value -1.08%

Sector Underperformers: 

• 1) Oil Tankers -4.54% 2) Road & Rail -2.87% 3) Homebuilders -2.13%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• INCR, ISLE, BOBE, MPLX, AMSG, CHRW, GWRE, OPB, KMI, KYN, KANG, ANTM, PAYC, TYG, TTOO, ABY, HPQ, KMF, AM, FEI, GMLP, HTHT, WPZ, CEQP, NGL, OKS, HTLD, PAYC, CALM, KYE, MWE, JCI, WMC and INCR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 

• 1) KMI 2) VIAB 3) CMI 4) FSLR 5) FCX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 

• 1) CHRW 2) KMI 3) VIAB 4) FCX 5) SLB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.15%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Gaming +2.59% 2) Airlines +1.17% 3) Internet +.48%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• ATV, ONDK, YHOO, QCOM, GIII, CYTK, W, CLVS, OLED, SAVE and SCTY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) COG 2) THLD 3) MTG 4) AVP 5) MPLX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) W 2) WYNN 3) BMY 4) CME 5)YHOO

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 30.4% of Issues Advancing, 65.9% Declining
• 56 New 52-Week Highs, 81 New Lows
• 40.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.4
• Vix 15.1
• Total Put/Call 1.09
• TRIN/Arms 1.30

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Cameron to Make Case for Striking Islamic State as Labour Splits. Prime Minister David Cameron will make the case for extending British airstrikes against Islamic State into Syria as he asks Parliament Wednesday to back military action in a vote. Lawmakers will debate for more than 10 hours, starting at 11:30 a.m. in London, with opinion split on both sides of the House of Commons. But the rift is much larger in the opposition Labour Party, whose leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will make the case against strikes before the foreign-affairs spokesman, Hilary Benn, makes the case for them. Cameron is likely to win the vote with the “clear majority” that he said last week he wanted, with the bulk of his Conservative Party backing the motion. Corbyn’s already weak authority over his lawmakers may be further dented if a large proportion of Labour members of Parliament, especially senior figures, vote against him, even though he’s agreed they can vote according to their consciences. He warned them Tuesday of the possible consequences of their actions.
• Emerging Markets Face Another `Challenging' Year, JPMorgan Says. While the worst of the emerging-market selloff may be over, a return to the golden days is unlikely, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., provider of some of the most followed indexes for developing-country fixed income securities. Local-currency bonds can rise 3.7 percent in 2016, after declining 25 percent over the past three years, the New York-based bank forecasts. Dollar-denominated debt sold by developing-nation countries is likely to return between 1 percent and 3 percent next year. “Emerging markets will continue to face fundamental challenges in 2016, leading to low single-digit returns in EM fixed income next year,” strategists led by Luis Oganes wrote in a note Tuesday. While the growth outlook is “a bit stronger” next year, it “remains below potential,” according to the report.
• BTG Pactual Cut to Junk by Moody's Following Esteves's Arrest. Banco BTG Pactual SA had its credit grade cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service on concern that the investment bank will struggle to keep enough cash on hand and maintain its franchise following last week’s arrest of its then-leader, Andre Esteves. The ratings firm lowered its baseline credit assessment for BTG two levels to Ba2 from Baa3, according to a statement Tuesday. It made the same change for the firm’s long-term global local- and foreign-currency deposit ratings. Esteves resigned his posts on Sunday and has denied wrongdoing in a corruption probe through attorneys.
• Australia's Economic Growth Accelerates as Exports Rebound. Australia’s economy expanded at a quicker pace than economists forecast in the third quarter, driven by the fastest gain in exports since 2000, and supporting the central bank’s decision Tuesday to keep interest rates steady. Gross domestic product advanced 0.9 percent in the three months through September from the previous quarter, when it rose a revised 0.3 percent, government data showed Wednesday. That compared with the median of 28 estimates for a 0.8 percent gain. The picture inside Australia was a little less rosy than the headline, as domestic demand contracted by half a percent in the three months.
• Price Cuts Herald End of Sydney Home Boom as Foreigners Retreat. Chris Carr, a real estate agent in Sydney’s northwestern suburbs, has had to convince sellers to drop prices on at least six homes in the past two months to complete transactions. Such price cuts sent Sydney dwelling values 1.4 percent lower in November, the most in five years, as Chinese demand slows, banks raise mortgage rates and buyers balk at record home values. The first open inspection of a home now attracts on average about six groups of prospective buyers, compared with as many as 30 three months earlier, Carr, an agent with Gilmour & Orley, said in an interview. “Sellers have had to accept up to 10 percent price reductions,” said Carr, who sells homes in Sydney’s Hills district about 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the central business district. “There is a lack of international buyers, particularly those with a Chinese background now, who were behind the price rise. Local demand is still there, but they are price-conscious.” 
• China's Stocks Fall in Shrinking Turnover as Developers Retreat. China’s stocks fell for the first time in three days in shrinking turnover as property developers slumped amid speculation a recent rally was overdone. The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.7 percent to 3,443.11 at 9:49 a.m. local time.
• Asian Stocks Hold Advance as U.S. Data Add to Dovish Fed Case. Asian stocks held Tuesday’s jump as an unexpected contraction in American manufacturing added to speculation that the pace of Federal Reserve rate increases will be gradual. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent to 134.25 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo, with about the same number of shares gaining and falling. 
• Metals Slump No Hitch for New Rio Mine With 60% Profit Margin. The worst commodity slump since the global recession and a collapse in aluminum prices doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made from digging up the bauxite ore used to produce the metal -- provided you have the right kind of mine. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-biggest mining company, is investing $1.9 billion on a new deposit in Australia even as the price rout has forced it to slash global capital spending by $11.5 billion since 2013. That’s because by 2019, the Amrun project will be able to unearth high-grade ore for about $20 a metric ton and sell it for around $50 a ton, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Islamic State Prevents Civilians From Fleeing Iraqi City. Iraqi forces urge people to leave Ramadi ahead of an offensive to retake it. Islamic State fighters are preventing civilians from fleeing the city of Ramadi—and threatening to kill those who try—after Iraqi forces warned people to leave ahead of an impending offensive, residents said Tuesday.
• Yahoo(YHOO) Board to Weigh Potential Sale of Internet Business, Sources Say. Board expected to discuss whether to proceed with a plan to spin off more than $30 billion in shares of Alibaba, find a buyer for core business, or both, sources said.
• ‘Climate Change’ Fish Story. You won’t believe what they’re saying in Paris. “You go down to Miami and when it’s flooding at high tide on a sunny day, the fish are swimming through the middle of the streets,” President Obama claimed at a press conference this morning. We go down to Miami with some frequency and have never seen any such thing. And believe us, we know how to troll.
• Liberalism’s Imaginary Enemies. In Paris, it’s easier to battle a climate crisis than confront jihadists on the streets. Little children have imaginary friends. Modern liberalism has imaginary enemies. Hunger in America is an imaginary enemy. Liberal advocacy groups routinely claim that one in seven Americans is hungry—in a country where the poorest counties have the highest rates of obesity. The statistic is a preposterous extrapolation from a dubious Agriculture Department measure of “food insecurity.” But the line gives those advocacy groups a...

Fox News:

• Top military officer contradicts Obama, says ISIS not 'contained'. (video) America’s top-ranking military officer found himself at odds Tuesday with the nation’s commander-in-chief over his claim that the Islamic State was “contained” – an assertion President Obama had made before the Paris terror attacks. Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a dim assessment when asked during a House Armed Services Committee hearing whether that's the case.
• ‘Saved us money’: Rubio wins conservative cred for ObamaCare change. Marco Rubio's Republican presidential bid is getting a surprisingly big boost from a little-known legislative tweak he helped tuck into last year's spending bill — one that ObamaCare critics are crediting with shielding taxpayers from jittery health insurance companies that may be eyeing shaky bottom lines.

CNBC:

• Ackman's Pershing Square off 15 percent for the year -source. Billionaire investor William Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management hedge fund lost 2 percent in November and ended the first 11 months of the year with a 17 percent loss, a person familiar with the number said.
• This could spark more oil selling. (video) 

Zero Hedge:

• Martin Armstrong Warns "QE Has Failed... Central Banks Are Simply Trapped". (graph)
• It's "All About The Dollar" For SocGen. (graph)
• The "Robin Hood" CEO Who Famously Raised His Employees' Minimum Wage To $70,000 Has A Dirty Secret.
• Greeks Told To Declare Cash "Under The Mattress", Jewelry And Precious Stones.
• Despite LeBeau-gasms, Domestic Vehicle Sales Slide For 2nd Month In A Row, Miss By Most In 5 Months. (graph)
• Millennials Increasingly Believe The American Dream "Is Not Really Alive".
• U.S. Total Debt Soars By $674 Billion In November. (graph)
• WTI Crude Slides After API Reports Another Surprise Inventory Build. (graph)
• The 'Goldilocks' Warning. (graph)
• Zuckerberg To Donate 99% Of His Facebook(FB) Shares To "Advance Human Potential".
• Fed Credibility Chart Tumbles Most Since October. (graph)
• "The Most Extreme Point Of Stock Market Overvaluation In History". (graph)
• Collapse In US Manufacturing Sparks Buying Panic In Bonds... And Stocks. (graph)

Business Insider:

• 'UNPRECEDENTED': New report paints a worrisome picture of ISIS in America.
• 11 photos that show just how bad China's recent high pollution days have been. (pics)
• BERNANKE: The inclusion of China's currency in the SDR doesn't mean much.
• Clinton's campaign promises total nearly $1 trillion of spending.

Financial Times:

• US credit tightens ahead of Federal Reserve policy shift. Signs of impending downward spiral appear even before policy move.

Telegraph:

• Mario Draghi moves centre stage in Europe's epic lurch to federalism. Successful completion of Europe's experiment with monetary union demands federalist solutions. But these could yet end up tearing it apart.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.25 -1.0 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 67.25 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.38 +.03%.
• S&P 500 futures +.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

• (BF/B)/1.00
• (GIII)/1.78
• (ISLE)/.19
• (RY)/1.64
• (ARO)/-.34
• (PVH)/2.47
• (SNPS)/.66  

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for November is estimated at 190K versus 182K in October.

8:30 am EST

• Final 3Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a +1.6% prior estimate.
• Final 3Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.4% prior estimate. 

9:45 am EST:

• The ISM New York for November is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 65.8 in October.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -679,170 barrels versus a +961,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by 900,000 barrels versus a +2,478,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +400,000 barrels versus a +1,046,000 barrel gain prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.69% versus a +1.7% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed Beige Book report.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CTRP) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Tarullo speaking, Bank of Canada rate decision, Eurozone CPI report and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.