Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 53.6% of Issues Advancing, 43.7% Declining
• 173 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 53.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.3%
• Vix 12.2 +1.7%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +19.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.37 +79.5%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Tens of Thousands of Jobs Go as China’s Biggest Banks Cut Costs. China’s four biggest banks reported that staff numbers fell by the most in at least six years in the first half, highlighting the possibility that employment has peaked at the firms that are the world’s biggest providers of banking jobs. A decline of 1.5 percent from the end of last year left 1.62 million workers at Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of China Ltd., earnings filings showed. Agricultural Bank, the No. 1 bank employer, saw its number of employees slip below half a million. While a fall in the first half is not unusual, the 25,000-job decline is the biggest since at least 2010 and analysts at firms including BOC International Holdings Ltd. and DBS Vickers Hong Kong Ltd. say changes to how banking is done will limit prospects for increases.
• Foreign Holdings of Aussie Debt Shrinks as Burden Grows: Chart. 
• Dollar Slides Versus Yen as Prospect of September Fed Hike Dims. The dollar slid to the weakest level in almost two weeks versus the yen after a report Tuesday showed that U.S. service industries expanded at the slowest pace in six years, dimming prospects the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this month. A gauge of the greenback extended its biggest slide in five weeks as the futures-implied odds of a rate increase at the Fed’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting declined to 24 percent from 32 percent on Sept. 5. A measure of expected price swings in the $5.1-trillion-a-day currency market fell to a one-month low. “Given that the dollar broke below 102.10 yen, it raises the risk of a re-test of 100.70,” said Sim Moh Siong, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore Ltd. “Because of the lower risk of a Fed-rate hike in September, volatility has come off and is likely to remain subdued.” The greenback fell 0.5 percent to 101.55 yen at 9:27 a.m. in Tokyo, after touching 101.25, the weakest level since Aug. 26. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the currency against a basket of 10 peers, fell 0.1 percent, after sliding 1 percent Tuesday. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge of currency price swings dropped to 9.7 percent in New York, the lowest level since Aug. 5, completing a five-day decline.
• Asian Stocks Outside Japan Rise on Bets Fed Will Keep Rates Low. Asian stocks excluding Japan climbed after weak data on the U.S. services industries bolstered speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates lower for longer. Shares in Tokyo fell as the yen strengthened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index rose 0.4 percent to 458.02 as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo. U.S. shares advanced, with the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing to a record, as odds the Fed will raise rates at its meeting this month fell to 24 percent from 32 last week, after a report showed a key services gauge fell to a six-year low. The prospect of U.S. rates staying lower for longer weighed on the dollar against the yen, and Japan’s Topix index sank 0.8 percent.
• Fed’s Williams Says Economy Is in Good Shape and Hike Warranted. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams painted an upbeat picture of the U.S. economy in a speech on Tuesday, despite recent disappointing data that have led investors to reduce their bets on an interest-rate increase later this month. The economy is “in good shape and headed in the right direction,” Williams said, according to a text of his remarks in Reno, Nevada. As a result, “it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later,” Williams said, repeating an argument that he made Aug. 18 in Alaska, though incoming data since then has been mixed. 
• Hedge Funds Ignore Wall Street Wisdom Buying Up S&P 500 Futures. Warnings embedded in strategist price targets and historically low U.S. stock volatility are doing nothing to dissuade hedge funds. They just spent another week adding to long positions in the equity market and building up shorts against the CBOE Volatility Index that were already at a record, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Large speculators extended bullish contracts on the S&P 500 to the most since May 2013, CFTC data show. The measure has been above zero, which delineates bullish from bearish, since mid-April. At the same time, VIX positions showed an expectation for low volatility even though the so-called fear gauge averaged 12.4 in August, the lowest monthly average in more than two years.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Transferred Two More Planeloads of Cash to Iran After Initial Payment. First $400 million coincided with Iran’s release of American prisoners and was used as leverage, officials have acknowledged.
• Immigration Source Shifts to Asia From Mexico. In most states, arrivals from China or India outpace those from the U.S.’s southern neighbor. Chinese and Indian newcomers to the U.S. are now outpacing Mexican arrivals in most regions of the country, a marked reversal from a decade ago, when immigrants from America’s southern neighbor dwarfed arrivals from the large Asian countries.

Fox News:

• Republicans push to re-open Clinton email case after FBI document drop. (video) Donald Trump’s campaign and congressional Republicans are pushing to re-open the Hillary Clinton email case – at the Justice Department, as well as in the court of public opinion – in the wake of newly released FBI documents which are fueling claims her team may have destroyed evidence.
  

CNBC:

• China's online chatter muted ahead of Apple iPhone 7 launch. Judging by the volume of online chatter, there's a lot less buzz in China ahead of this week's expected launch of the new Apple iPhone, and people on the street say they're more likely to "wait and see" what the latest device offers than rush out to buy.

Zero Hedge:

• Clinton Campaign Unloads On NBC For Covering Hillary's "Coughing Attack".
• From An Industrial Economy To A Paper Economy - The Stunning Decline Of Manufacturing In America. (graph)
• As Class 8 Truck Orders Continue Collapse, VW Has A "Fix" For Navistar's Diesel Emission Issues. (graph)
• USDJPY Tumbles On Sankei Article BOJ Is Struggling To Reach Policy Consensus.
• Vancouver Housing Bubble Burst Sends Local Consumer Sentiment Crashing Most In Three Years. (graph)
• "It's Probably Not Nothing". (graph)
• "Last September Yellen Decided To Stay On Hold; Three Years Ago Bernanke Chose Not To Taper QE3".
• Why The Fed Is "A Terrible Parent".
• For The First Time, Two European Non-Financial Companies Will Be Paid To Issue Debt.
• "We Wired It" - New Emails Suggest Clinton Rigged Benghazi Hearing.
• Chipotle(CMG) Soars After Bill Ackman Reveals 9.9% Stake, Goes Activist.
• 40,000 Students In Limbo, 8,000 Employees Fired As ITT Suddenly Shuts Down.
• Chicago Sees Huge Spike In Murders Over Labor Day As Cops Stay Home In "Disrespect Of Police" Protest.
• "False" Economy Wake-Up Call Sparks Safe-Haven Surge In Bonds, Silver... & FANG Stocks. (graph)

Business Insider:

• There haven't been this many 'weakest link' companies since 2009.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 -4.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 37.25 -1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.41 +.1%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

• (HDS)/.87
• (JW/A)/.60
• (HPE)/.45 

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings.

2:00 pm EST

• US Fed releases Beige Book report.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's George speaking, Australia Trade Balance report, Bank of Canada rate decision, UK Manufacturing Production report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (AAPL) special event, RBC Industrials conference, Goldman Retailing Conference, Keefe Bruyette Woods Insurance conference, Robert Baird Healthcare conference, Wells Fargo Healthcare conference, (FAST) August sales and the (BWA) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Buyout Speculation, Oil Bounce, Utility/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.21 +1.92%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.99 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.53 -2.06%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.01 -.97%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +39.51%
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -10.53%

• NYSE Arms .70 -5.93% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.60 -.79%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 681.0 -.68%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.44 -1.04%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.48 -.47%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 37.20 -.92%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.50 -2.38%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.63 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 51.5 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -34.5 +4.75 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.34 +1.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 81.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.16/Metric Tonne -.14%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.0 -7.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.6 -1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% +4.0 basis points
• 27.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 51.8% chance at Dec. 14 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -197 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) I-Banks -1.2% 2) Semis -.7% 3) Defense -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PTI, SEP, CTRP, CMI, HES, LULU, PCMI, IPHI, TNC, MTX, CNC, YY, SCOR, MON, TV, COTY, FCFS, RYAM, MSCI, ASPS, YIN, PRXL, FNBC and CRTO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CMI 2) WYN 3) HOG 4) HPE 5) MON

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SCOR 2) CNC 3) PRXL 4) PRAH 5) VWR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +4.7% 2) Social Media +2.2% 3) Utilities +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CPHD, ENB, NAV, DVAX, SE, BKS, BIDU, TTM, ACIA, EOG, SSYS, SAGE, BKS, OTIC and EOG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AVP 2) SE 3) TLRD 4) DVAX 5) PAGP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HP 2) GT 3) MEET 4) INVA 5) MCD

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 51.4% of Issues Advancing, 45.7% Declining
• 194 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 53.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.3%
• Vix 12.5 +4.4%
• Total Put/Call .82 -13.7%
• TRIN/Arms .74 +.4%