Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video) 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on global growth optimism, technical buying, diminished global trade tensions, less Brexit uncertainty, oil gains and seasonal strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• The World Is Days Away From Booking the Best Asset Returns in a Decade.

• GOP Raises More Than Twice as Much as Democrats: Campaign Update.

• Online Retailers Ready to Tap Rising Demand for Booze Delivery.

• Rural America Turning to Grocers, High-Fee ATMs as Banks Leave.  

• Chill, It Might Not Be That Bad: The Optimist's Guide to 2020.  

• House Votes to Impeach, Brexit Mandate in Action: Weekend Reads.  

• Charting the Economy: World Limps on After 2019’s Trade Bruising.  

• The Great Decoupling of Energy Stocks From Oil Creates Carnage.  

• Bitcoin Extends Tumble, Falls Below $7,000 to Lowest Since May.   

• Investors Back Oil’s Jump Above $60 With Surge in Bullish Bets.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia, Ukraine Agree to Gas Flows to EU, as U.S. Sanctions Hit Pipeline Project.

• SEC Probes Listings of Slack, Other Unicorns on NYSE.

• Misstep in Space Caps Bad Week for Boeing.

• A $900 Bottle of Hypocrisy.

• The New War Against Africa’s Christians.

• Walmart’s Secret Weapon to Fight Off Amazon: The Supercenter.

• Inheriting IRAs Just Got Complicated, Thanks to New Retirement Overhaul.

CNBC:

• Trump signs bills to avoid shutdown, scrap Obamacare taxes and raise tobacco buying age.

• Trump signs $738 billion defense bill. Here’s what the Pentagon is poised to get.

• Trump and Xi sparked a year-end rally that should continue into new year.

• Here are six reasons to be optimistic about 2020.

• Wall Street analysts say these stocks are ‘undervalued’ heading into 2020.

• 2020 could be the year that sports gambling takes off, to the benefit of these stocks.

• Analysts say Alphabet, UPS have early edge in delivery’s next frontier: drones.

• These will be the hottest markets for jobs in 2020—here’s what workers earn there.

• Rising market set to get another lift from official ‘Santa Claus rally’ period beginning next week.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (XLE), (OIH), (BDX) and (CHL).

MarketWatch.com:

• These 10 S&P 500 stocks were lousy in 2019, but they could return 40% or more in 2020.

• Here’s when markets will be closed for Christmas and the New Year.

• Here’s how the Dow and S&P 500 perform in years after they ring up gains of 20%.  

• The stock market could surge another 20% if the head of Merrill Lynch’s wealth management is right.

Fox News:

• Pelosi's stalling means impeachment comes with 'asterisk', Starr warns: 'It's wrong constitutionally'.

Zero Hedge:

• Sorry Dems, US Employees Are The World's Happiest.

• China Faces "Systemic Risk" From Debt Cross-Default "Chain Reaction", Top Central Bank Advisor Warns.

• 'Global Mega Trends To 2030' Forecasts Matrix-Like Automated Future.

• Russia's "Sovereign Internet" Test Will Cut Off Entire Country From Web On Monday.

• German Green Party Urges Allowing 140 Million "Climate Refugees" To Migrate To West.

• Wall Street Analyst Jobs Vanish As Banks Take An Axe To Research With Market At Record Highs.

• Kunstler: Pelosi Has Engineered A Hanging-Chad Impeachment.

• JK Rowling 'Cancelled' By Woke Outrage-Mob For Saying Biological Sex Is Real.

• Protest Pandimonium: A Look At The Most-Ridiculous Campus Demonstrations Of 2019.

• Iowa Man Gets 16 Years For Burning LGBTQ Flag; Gay Rights Group Says Excessive.

• US Equity Markets Just Reached 'Record Euphoria'.

Business Insider: 

• Half of the 10 highest paid YouTubers are gamers, and its proof of the video game industry's influence on pop culture.

• Dollar General is selling CBD products at select stores — but experts say to be cautious about buying the unregulated products.

• Stock-market worrywarts think the record-setting rally is all smoke and mirrors. They're wrong.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,223.29 +1.71%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 28,499.13 +1.28%

• NASDAQ 8,925.55 +2.2%

• Russell 2000 1,671.13 +2.09%

• S&P 500 High Beta 46.58 +2.74%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 155.66 +1.51%

• Wilshire 5000 32,973.38 +1.75%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,764.0 +1.94%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,347.38 +1.53%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 651.11 +1.38%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,118.51 -.24%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,151.44 +3.21%

• Transports 10,880.16 +.97%

• Utilities 879.80 +2.25%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.22 +1.64%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 44.53 +.35%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,269.72 -.1%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 967.15 +.08%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 391,821 +1.17%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 630 -412

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 32.3 -24.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 495,539 +15.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,229,813 +3.1%

• Total Put/Call .76 -31.48%

• OEX Put/Call .34 -12.82%

• ISE Sentiment 82.0 -14.0 points

• NYSE Arms .71 -53.99%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.4 -1.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.94 +.12%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.27 -2.04%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.47 -.92%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,969,53 -.81%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.600 Trillion -.54%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$9.628 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 44.1 +17.2%

• AAII % Bears 20.5 -21.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 185.04 +.57%

• Crude Oil 60.34 +.70%

• Reformulated Gasoline 170.40 +2.86%

• Natural Gas 2.33 +.74%

• Heating Oil 202.18 +2.03%

• Gold 1,481.70 +.07%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 176.66 +.31%

• Copper 280.10 +.59%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 295.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%

• Lumber 413.90 +2.69%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 882.68 +.98%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.34% +39.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.2% unch.
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2374 -1.49%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 437.38 +265.76%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 176.63 +.06%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 +1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.3 +25.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.20 +6.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 95.7% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate cut on 1/29

• US Dollar Index 97.75 +.59%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,653.56 +.25%

• Bitcoin/USD 7,184.27 -.56%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.79 -.4%

• Yield Curve 29.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.92% +10.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.098 Trillion +1.03%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.96 +8.96%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 162.09 +2.11%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 +11.25 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.49 -9.68%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 103.31 +2.42%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.19 -6.34%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.97 -11.4%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.08 +5.86%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.20 +.37%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.78% +6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 36.75 +2.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 +4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 45.13 -5.54%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 541.0 -12.13%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 52.45 -1.33%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 181.90 -2.13%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $4.003 Trillion +.77%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,128.8 -.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 225,500 +11,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.73% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 505.30 -5.04%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.1 -1.0 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.8% -20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.55/gallon -.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,151 -15.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 854.37 +2.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 65.0 +8.33%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,299 +3.1%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Alt Energy +4.2%

• Social Media +3.5%

• Semis +3.3%

• Oil Service +3.3%

• Healthcare Providers +3.2%

Lagging Sectors

• Defense -.1% 

• Restaurants -.1%

• Industrials -.4%

• Gold & Silver -2.0%

• Homebuilding -2.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• RAD, TXG, DTIL, CRCM, KRTX, RVLV, CLI, MAXR, CYRX, AERI, PING, CRNC, PRMW, XENT, EPZM, AXDX, CPS, RCL, TRHC, SILK, TGNA, IOVA, WDC, TPTX, TAP, IQV, BG and FRTA

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• WNC, ABMD, KMX, DRNA and X

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change