Saturday, August 08, 2020

Today's Headlines

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (EL), (DOCU), (OKT), (EVRG) and (WYNN).
MarketWatch.com:   
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:

Friday, August 07, 2020

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China Tensions, Commodity Weakness, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.6 -.18%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.40 -.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 +1.94%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.4 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103 .0 -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .70 +18.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.47 +17.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.39 -.25%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 814.83 -.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.98 -1.78%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.75 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  67.61 -.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.44 -.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 177.03 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  80.25 -1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.30 -.60%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 40.5 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 223.0 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 211.90 +3.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 +8.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -109 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -47 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

 

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -4.5% 2) Video Gaming -2.7% 3) Software -2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PINS, APPN, VCYT, DPHC, DCP, PBYI, COLD, BCEI, OLN, SPCE, ELY, HTGC, HMSY, ONEM, CHNG, PSXP, VSLR, LPSN, CDAY, CYRX, ICHR, SONO, BEAM, TWLO, GTHX, HLF, AVLR, SQ, VIRT, CCOI, SMAR, ATVI, UBER, BE, CWH, ECPG, EOG, CARG, TRUP, EPAY, AAXN, TDOC, QTRX, NGVC, LVGO, MDB, EDIT, VAPO, GKOS, EVBG, DT, KODK, FLT, LYFT, VAPO, PMT, DBX, CATM, ACMR, SSP, BL, ILMN, FSLY, CVNA, YELP, VIVO, DDOG, PETQ and AYX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IFF 2) DISH 3) EWW 4) OSTK 5) CVNA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AYX 2) YELP 3) DDOG 4) VIRT 5) UBER
Charts:

Bull Radar

 

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Telecom +2.5% 2) Retail +2.2% 3) Utilities +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GRPN, UFS, TDC, SAIL, OSTK, STMP, Z, ZG, CHRS, KURA, IRTC, FSLR, RVNC, SWI, SRG, EXPI, BIIB, APPS, OTRK, SPWR, TMUS, UPS, VSAT, NLOK, PLUG and CELH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GRPN 2) AAP 3) AYX 4) STMP 5) PBI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ZG 2) FSLR 3) GRPN 4) AAOI 5) TMUS
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

 

NYSE Composite Index:

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.5%  to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.52 -.25%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.32%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.46%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (CSIQ)/.12
  • (DISH)/.57
  • (EBIX)/.65
  • (MGA)/-1.64
  • (VIRT)/1.55
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 1480K versus 4800K in June.
  • The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 10.5% versus 11.1% in June.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -1.2% decline in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for June.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for June is estimated at $10.0B versus -$18.28B in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.