Saturday, June 11, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (VLO), (MPC), (PSX), (PYPL), (MAR), (LUV) and (AXP).
  • Had bearish commentary on (AFRM).

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:      
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Thursday, June 09, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge
AP News:
Reuters:
Newsmax:  
Rebel News:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
The Epoch Times:  
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.75 +1.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  70.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.47 -.25%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 5,048.0 +71.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.5 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.3% gain in April.   
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in April.
  • The CPI YoY for May is estimated at +8.2% versus +8.3% in April. 
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY  for May.
10:00 am EST
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for June is estimated to fall to 58.2 versus 58.4 in May.
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for June is estimated at +5.3% versus +5.3% in May. 
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for May is estimated at -$136.5B versus -$132.0B in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (DXCM) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China CPI report and the (PCG) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Transport/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.6 +2.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .84 +7.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 5,125.0 -6.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.85 -.83%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.0 +2.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -42.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .96 +4.35%
  • NYSE Arms 1.39 +39%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +2.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.88 +.45%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 293.0 -18.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.90 +3.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.0 basis points +15.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.32 +.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.83 +20%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.8 n/a
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,564.78 +7.0%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 35.5 basis points +2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.0 basis points +3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 basis points unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  120.0 +3.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.0 -.15%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.77 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.25% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 22.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 140.6 USD/Metric Tonne -3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -46.7 -3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.2 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.0 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 unch.
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 234 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 14.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.2%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -161 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Shipping -4.5% 2) Steel -3.2% 3) Gambling -3.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ZM, IRTC, SPTN, VIVO, KD, LNTH, AMRC, QTWO, SMCI, SHC, AGCO, AI, EXPE, OKTA, SNAP, COIN, SEMR, EGLE, X, UPLD, GNK, FIVE, LEU, MOS, LBRT, HCP, AIR, ANAB, IRTC, CRK, TWST, NGM, RCL, ROKU, NFE, UNFI, NCLH, NE, CLF, ZG, PTON, MRNA, COCO, CCL, AA, CUK, Z, CUK, Z, BYND, CVNA, ABM, BPMC, TRUP, ZEN, LOVE, NVAX and AMPH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVE 2) ZEN 3) SIG 4) HLT 5) BLNK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BILI 2) SKIL 3) PAGS 4) FRGE 5) NIO
Charts: