Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Putin Says New Sanctions Would Be Catastrophic for Global Energy Markets.
• Mexico Credit Rating Cut by Moody’s as Fiscal Picture Worsens.  
• Fitch Cuts Turkey’s Credit Rating Deeper Into Junk Territory.
  
• Who Assassinated Shinzo Abe and Why? Everything We Know So Far.
• Treasuries Exodus Extends in Japan on Record Selling Streak.
• Stocks Score Weekly Gain as Jobs Fuel Rate Bets: Markets Wrap
• Oil Posts Weekly Decline as Recession Fears Muddle the Outlook.
• Amazon Prime Growth Stalls in US After Price Increase.
• California Exodus Accelerated During Pandemic, Study Shows.  
• California Throws 70,000 Truckers in Gig-Work Legal Limbo.
• Baby Formula Shortages Still Bad in Alaska, Utah and Colorado.  
• Footwear Industry Pulls Back on Hiring as Weaker US Sales Expected.

Wall Street Journal:

• Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Former Premier, Is Assassinated.
• Google Offers Concessions to Fend Off Antitrust Suit.
• Investors Bet Euro’s Woes Are Far From Over.
• Housing-Affordability Index At Lowest Level Since 2006.
• What Smart Investors Do in Bear Markets.
• Wisconsin Supreme Court Bans Ballot Drop Boxes.

Fox News:  

• FBI director issues stern warning about biggest long-term threat to US.

CNBC:

• Elon Musk notifies Twitter he is terminating deal.
• Fed’s Brainard says crypto needs regulation before its size threatens financial system.
• Biden says Supreme Court is ‘out of control,’ orders HHS to protect abortion access.
• Why tensions between China and Taiwan are on the rise.

Zero Hedge:

• NPR Denigrates Slain Shinzo Abe As "Divisive Arch Conservative".
• Elon Musk Terminates Deal To Buy Twitter; Board To Pursue Legal Action.
• "Shockingly Naive": Bloomberg's Tom Keene Wrecks Biden Official Over Absurd Gas-Price Blame-Game.
• Blinken Tells Lavrov "Let The Grain Out" Of Ukraine As China, India & Brazil Refuse Condemnation.
• Gaslighting: The Psychology Of Shaping Another's Reality.
• DHS Agents Spied For China? Charged With Attempts To Suppress Critics Of CCP.
• Biden Comms Staffer Lies About Extremely 'Senior Moment' With Teleprompter - Then White House Lies Too.
• Something Snaps In The US Labor Market: Full, Part-Time Workers Plunge As Multiple Jobholders Soar.
• Republican Lawmaker Requests TikTok To Testify Over US Data Accessed From China.
• White House Unveils $400M More In Military Aid To Ukraine, Marking 15th Package.
• Gingrich: Lenin's Show Trials & The January 6 Committee.
• Today's America: An Economy Of Shortages.
• Why Goldman Is Buying Every Barrel Of Oil It Can Find.
• Consumer Credit Hits A Brick Wall With Credit Cards Maxed Out.
• Bonds take a hit but stocks look through NFP beat - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Commodities Crushed & Bonds Battered As Stocks & The Dollar Soar.

MarketWatch.com:         

• Every rose has its thorn: Strong U.S. jobs report contains a few troubling signs.
  
• These are the dividend stocks most recommended by top-performing newsletters — and 6 yield above 4%.

NewsMax:

• US Sending $400 Million in Military Aid to Ukraine.
• Rep. Meuser: Media Calling Japan’s Slain Abe ‘Extreme’ Spreading Propaganda.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• REVEALED: Chatter on Chinese Twitter on Shinzo Abe and “Completing the Task” Was Posted 17 Hours Before His Assassination.
• Karine Jean-Pierre Struggles to Explain Whether Biden “Was Aware” That Millions of Barrels of Oil Would Be Sent Overseas (VIDEO).
• HERE WE GO: NYC Indoor Mask Advisory is Back! Health Officials Tell New Yorkers to Wear N95 Masks Indoors and Around Crowds Outside.
• China Restaurants and Shops Celebrate Shinzo Abe’s Assassination with Weekend Specials on Food, Milk Tea, Clothing and Lottery Tickets.
• FOREIGN MEDDLING: Mexican President Tells Mexicans in Texas Not to Vote for ‘Anti-Immigrant’ and ‘Immoral’ Gov. Abbott.
• Canada to Destroy 13.6 Million Doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Because No One Wants it Domestically or Abroad.
• Pro-Abortion Protest Mob Forces Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh to Leave DC Restaurant Morton’s Steakhouse by Back Door: Reports.

The Epoch Times:

• DHS Officer Indicted for Helping China to Harass Chinese Dissidents in US.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Stocks Slightly Lower into Close on Rising Long-Term Rates, Increasing Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.7 -5.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .95% unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,644.0 +238.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.47 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 -3.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +14.8%

• NYSE Arms .85 +80.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.4 -3.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 506.94 -2.76%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 494.0 -2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 128.22 -.47%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 194.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.58 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 344.44 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.22%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 13,737.6 +21.0%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 55.75 basis points +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  140.75 -.25 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.75 -.02%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.0 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -2.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.80 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.7 +7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.3 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 66.9%(-12.7 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 49.1%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 231 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 14.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.8%(+.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +308 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my in my tech/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 55.8% of Issues Advancing, 39.5% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 15.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,522.0 +114.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,513.0 -.02%
  
• Vix 24.9 -4.3%
• Total Put/Call .93 +14.8%
• TRIN/Arms .76 +61.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Five Indicted in Bid to Quiet China Critics Include DHS Officer.
• Biden Set to Meet With Advisers to Discuss Cutting China Tariffs.
• Historic Cascade of Defaults Is Coming for Emerging Markets.
• ‘Very Likely’ ECB Rate Hikes to Come as Growth Slows, Knot Says.
• Peru Lifts Key Rate to 6% as Inflation Hits 25-Year High.
• Stocks Gain as Fed Hawks Downplay Recession Fears: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises in Volatile Week as Tight Market Vies With Slowdown.  
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Fed Hawks Back 75 Basis-Point July Hike, Still See Soft Landing.
  
• US Recession Is Already Here, According to Wells Fargo Investment Group.
• VIX Traders Are Piling Into Bets That Fresh Stock Pain Is Ahead.
  
• Bulls Place Market Bets on Economic Path Needing So Much to Go Right.
• ‘I’m Done With Crypto’: Voyager Bankruptcy Rocks True Believers.
• Embattled Crypto Lender Celsius Accused of Fraud by Ex-Employee in Suit.  
• Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco.

Wall Street Journal:     

• Boris Johnson Resignation Caps Stunning Fall From Grace.
• Big Cities Can’t Get Workers Back to the Office. 
  
• The Global Search for Energy Security. As inflation soars, the West is finally getting serious about a goal it abandoned years ago.
• The Fed Ignored the Money Supply, and a Recession Is Coming. Jerome Powell said M2 doesn’t have ‘important implications’ as inflation hit a 40-year high. 
• FDIC Scrutinizing Voyager’s Marketing on Safety of Customer Deposit Accounts.
• ‘Black Swans’ and ‘Perfect Storms’: Wall Street Reaches for Clichés to Excuse Your Withered 401(k).
• Europe Scoops Up LNG, Choking Off Power Supplies in Poorer Nations.

Fox News:

• Mom doesn't hold back on teachers union's 'radical agenda' as 'birthing parent' controversy boils over.
• Biden admin sends emergency oil reserves to China as US prices surge.

CNBC.com:

• Fed officials Waller and Bullard back another big interest rate increase in July.
• Levi Strauss hikes dividend as second-quarter earnings exceed expectations.    
  

MarketWatch:          

• These 10 stocks from a sector that is a bear-market bulwark have upside potential of up to 30%.
  
• ‘Inflation is going to be stickier than most people imagine’: Inside the obscure market where traders have mostly been right about price increases.  
• Opinion: The Fed is not going to stop until inflation is locked back in its cage.
  
• GameStop terminates CFO, reportedly plans layoffs; stock falls. 
  
• Costco sees 20% bump in sales for June.

Zero Hedge:

• Millions Of Barrels From US Emergency Oil Reserve Sent Abroad, Including To China.
• US Rail System Still Deteriorating.
• WSJ Op-Ed Pushes 'Rebuilding Relations' With China, Ignoring Overwhelming Threats.
• Johnstone: Information Anarchism.
• Urgent buys?  
• DB: When We Get Confirmation Of A Proper Recession, Watch Out Below.
• CNN Suggests Gun Shops Should Check Buyers' Social Media Pages Before Agreeing Sales.
• Judge Strikes Down Los Angeles School Vaccine Mandate, Siding With Parent.
• What is the squeeze case for equities?
• "Let West Try To Defeat Us On Battlefield... We Haven't Started Anything Seriously Yet": Putin In Fiercest Warning Since Invasion.
• Stocks surge and 10yr yield reclaims 3% ahead of NFP - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Twitter Stock Tumbles As WaPo Reports Musk Deal "In Serious Jeopardy".
• Georgia Guidestones Now Completely Demolished Just Hours After Explosion.
• The Deep State Is Sadistic.
• Bitcoin, Big-Tech, & Black Gold Bid As Hawkish FedSpeak Batters Bonds.

Newsmax:

• Arizona AG Brnovich: Time to Call Biden's Border Mess an 'Invasion'.
• Putin Advises Ukraine to Submit, Says Russian Military Ready for Assault on Kyiv.
• Putin to Ukraine: Russia Has Barely Started Its Action.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THEY MOCK US: Joe Biden Awards Megan Rapinoe with Nation’s Highest Honor for Trashing Her Country, Says She’s a “Champion for Essential American Truth”.
• Dutch Farmer Protest Update: 16-Year-Old Jouke Freed; Document Reveals Government Plans to Confiscate Farms for Asylum Seekers.
• WATCH: Kari Lake Responds To Biden Regime Lawsuit On Bannon’s War Room: “Obviously, He Wants To See ILLEGALS Vote. We Do Not And They Will Not In Arizona When I’m Governor”.
• JUST IN: Governor Abbott Authorizes Texas National Guard, State Troopers to Apprehend Illegal Aliens and Return Them to Ports of Entry.
• Another Blatant Lie By Biden Exposed, Americans’ Savings Are at Lowest Point in a Decade.
• Sky News Australia Host Compares Trudeau to Netherlands PM Mark Rutte – Calls them “Golden Pin-Up Boys for Klaus Schwab” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:  

• Top House Republican Presses Yellen for Records on Hunter Biden’s Foreign Business Dealings.
• Chinese Communist Party Threat Is ‘Massive’: FBI and MI5 Directors.
• NASA Administrator Accuses China of Planning to Take Over the Moon.

Twitter: 

• @Lukewearechange - They are trying to make you think he is incompetent, when in reality they know exactly what they are doing and they are just using Biden as a front man for the collapse that they are orchestrating!!!
• @backtolife_2023 - Tucker Carlson on how Pfizer spends more on ads than research. (video)
• @MDBreathe - @SenBobHall of Texas talks about how @pfizer took shortcuts at the expense of our health. (video)
• @ColumbiaBugle - Tucker Carlson's Monologue On The Highland Park 4th of July Shooting & The Media's Refusal To Discuss The Crisis In The Rise Of Antidepressants & Other Drugs Among Americans. Tucker Lists Off The Many Shooters Who Were On Psychotropic Drugs. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 837,191 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.5 +2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 81.75 -3.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.07 +.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,558.0 +141.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.0 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated to fall to 265K versus 390K.
• The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 3.6% versus 3.6% in May.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Canadian Unemployment rate report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.