Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.14%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.2 +3.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.6 -.5 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 +1.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.16 +.17: Growth Rate +14.0% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 393.27 +.35: Growth Rate +25.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 +12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.36 +83.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.59% -50.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.8% +.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 49.7% (+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.3%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -404 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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