Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Trump Policy Initiatives, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Construction Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.12 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.7 euros/megawatt-hour -2.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.8 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.6 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.1 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(60 of 500 reporting) +18.5% -1.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.21 -.07:  Growth Rate +15.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.27% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 397.19 +.24: Growth Rate +26.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.9 +1.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.75 -48.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 30.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.99% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.4% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 75.6% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 58.2%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

No comments: