Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 +.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .70 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 -.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.3 +1.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 195.0 +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 -18.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$110.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.5 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.7 -.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 175 -13
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 +1.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.7 +.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 123.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.8 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.3 -.14%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 108.7 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.05%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.5 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -9.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 45.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour +.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -7.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.5 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 -2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(28 of 500 reporting) +23.6% +3.4 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.12 +.04:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.7 +.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 395.68 +.15: Growth Rate +26.2% unch., P/E 33.2 +.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 39.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.7% +1.6 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% -4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.82% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 70.1% (-6.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 53.4%(-10.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +450 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long