Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.8 +8.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.9 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +3.7 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(42 of 500 reporting) +21.9% -2.0 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.74 +.46: Growth Rate +14.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% -2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 396.33 +.49: Growth Rate +26.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.63 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve 34.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.99% +3.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.8% +1.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 71.6% (+5.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 55.6%(+5.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +409 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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