Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Dissipation of Overblown AI Infrastructure Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.14 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.7 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(94 of 500 reporting) +11.1% -4.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.78 -.06:  Growth Rate +15.4% unch., P/E 22.0 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 399.94 +.29: Growth Rate +27.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.3 +.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 -17.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.66 -17.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.18% +19.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.8% -1.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 69.6% (+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 49.8%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +462 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

No comments: