Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.86 unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 96.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.56 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +2.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.9 -15.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .5 +1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.94 +.14: Growth Rate +14.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.45 +.18: Growth Rate +25.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 40.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.68% +23.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -.3 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 60.9% (-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 49.7%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector long, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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