Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Jitters, "Growth into Value" Rotation, Technical Selling, Healthcare/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

  Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .51 -33.9%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.0 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.47 -.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.2 +.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 -19.6%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$102.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.3 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 282.5 +2.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 191 -6
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.7 -.5%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 147.9 -1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.8 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.3 +.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 91.9 -3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 4.0 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 612.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 44.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.4 +8.4 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.7 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(33 of 500 reporting) +23.9% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.28 +.16:  Growth Rate +14.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% -22.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 395.84 +.16: Growth Rate +26.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.64 +13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 36.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.96% +23.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.0% +2.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 68.1% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 52.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -23 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +122 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long