Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.87 -.02%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 97.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.47 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.7 +5.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +.1 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.5 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.80 +.13: Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 394.27 +.30: Growth Rate +25.7% unch., P/E 33.8 -.8
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -7.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 38.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.5% -.2 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 60.9% (+4.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 51.4%(+5.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +95 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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