Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Options Expiration, Short-Covering, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.0 -.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 51.9 +2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.0 -1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 53.7 +4.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -9.5%

• NYSE Arms .60 -13.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.9 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 391.97 +.78%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 426.0 -7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 135.90 -.14% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 355.34 -.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 217.06 +3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 314.01 -3.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 -.65%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 38.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 39.0 basis points +12.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -62.75 basis points -3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  172.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 44.91 +.19%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .91 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -28.0 basis points (2s/10s) +10.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 113.6 euros/megawatt-hour -10.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.5 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 +1.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.4 -.7 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.26 -.18:  Growth Rate +15.1% unch., P/E 15.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.19 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.85% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +8.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 51.7%(+27.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 46.8%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 126 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(+2.8 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +38/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.3%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +139 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 50.7% of Issues Advancing, 46.1% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 425 New Lows
• 24.2%(+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 51.1 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,142.8 -.35%
  
• Vix 29.7 -.8%
• Total Put/Call .88 -16.2%
• TRIN/Arms .74 +7.3% 

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

• US Eyes Expanding China Tech Ban to Quantum Computing and AI.
• Japan Inflation Hits 3% for First Time Since 1991 Excluding Tax Hike Impacts.  
• Fall of 150 Has Yen Watchers Wondering When Japan Will Act.
• US Ban on Xinjiang Imports Is Off to ‘Remarkably Good Start’.  
• Deutsche Bank Trims Investment Banking Staff Amid Slowdown.
• UK Tories Seek Quick Fix to Truss Chaos as Party Faces Wipeout.
  
• Runners and Riders: Who Could Replace Liz Truss as UK Leader? 
• Asian Stocks Face Headwinds as Bond Yields Climb: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Pares Gains as Equity Weakness Counters China Covid Optimism.
  
• There’s No US Crude Going to France for the First Time in Four Years.  
• Surge in Commodity Prices Brings Drilling Boom to Alberta.  
• Nouriel Roubini Foresees an ‘Ugly’ Mix of the 1970s and the Global Financial Crisis.
• Pinterest Leads Drop in Social Media Stocks as Snap Disappoints.
  
• Supreme Court’s Barrett Refuses to Block Biden Student-Debt Plan.  
• Starbucks Corporate Workers Doubt Company Values in Internal Poll.   
• Is College Worth It? Undergraduate Enrollment Slips in US.  
• Wall Street Is Taking a ‘YOLO’ Page Out of Retail’s Playbook.
  
• Whirlpool Cuts Earnings Outlook After Consumer Demand Drops ‘Massively’.

Wall Street Journal:

• In Arizona, Kari Lake Makes Waves. She’s winning by following Reagan’s admonition to lift ‘a banner of bold colors, no pale pastels.’
• U.K.’s Liz Truss Resigns After Igniting Financial Turmoil.
• Who Will Be the Next Prime Minister?
• U.K. Government Is a Casualty in World of Higher Borrowing Costs.
• Toxic Workplaces Are Bad for Your Health, Surgeon General Says.
• China’s Military Is Catching Up to the U.S. Is It Ready for Battle?
• Microsoft in Advanced Talks to Increase Investment in OpenAI.
• Pfizer Targets Covid Vaccine Price of at Least $110 a Dose.

Fox News:

• Doctor rips White House for shielding key COVID vaccine data.

CNBC.com:

• An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead.
• Fed’s Harker sees ‘lack of progress’ on inflation, expects aggressive hikes.
• Here’s why it’s so hard to find cheap airfare this year — and why 2023 isn’t looking much better. 
  

MarketWatch:              

• ‘Mass layoffs’ of Meta bus drivers lead to pleas for Facebook to bring workers back to the office.  
• Mortgage rates surge to 6.94%, a 20-year high, Freddie Mac says, leading to steep decline in home sales.  
• These housing-bubble markets are the most overvalued in the world, UBS report finds.  
• Why the housing market should brace for double-digit mortgage rates in 2023.  
• Opinion: Tech earnings are about to dive, and there’s no life preserver in sight.
  
• CSX rallies on earnings beat, while Union Pacific stock lags. 
• ‘Fragile’ Treasury market is at risk of ‘large-scale forced selling’ or surprise that leads to breakdown, B. of A. says.

Zero Hedge:

• TikTok Parent Planned To Track Specific Americans' Physical Location.
• Musk Planning To Fire 75% Of Twitter Staff: WaPo.
• CDC Votes To Add COVID-19 Vaccines To Childhood Immunization Schedule.
• Pelosi Dismisses Call For New Democrat Leadership: "There's No Substitute For Experience".
• 'Very Difficult': Electric Vehicle Owner Took 15 Hours To Drive 175 Miles.
• Jill Biden Predicts Wave Of Cancer Diagnoses After COVID-19.
• Aide To New York Mayor Admits That Migrant Crisis Is Destroying The City.
• US Health Officials Dumped Stocks In Jan 2020 (Before Declaring COVID An Emergency).
• Three Places To Retire On The Beach And Cut Your Cost Of Living.
• US Says Iranian Troops "Directly Engaged" In Crimea; EU Sanctions Tehran For Drone Deliveries.
• US stocks ended a choppy session lower on further upside in yields - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Latest Polls Show 90% Of Voters Worried About Inflation - Pessimistic About Economy.
• Supreme Court Refuses To Block Biden’s Billion-Dollar Student Loan Forgiveness Scheme.
• Parents Erupt Over 'Queerest' Halloween Party And Drag Show Promoted By Schools.
• SNAP Craters 25% After Reporting Weakest-Ever Growth, Removes Q4 Guidance, Drags Down All "Socials".
• 5 Signs That The Housing Crash Is Escalating A Lot Faster Than Many Experts Anticipated.
• Stocks hit after mixed earnings & rising yields - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks & Bonds FUBAR Amid FedSpeak BOHICA, Housing SNAFU, & Truss TARFU.

Newsmax:    

• Most Major Polls Skewed To Dems By 4 to 5 Percentage Points.
  
• Rep. Garbarino: Crime Worse Under Dems' Policies.
• Former FERC Chairman: Biden's Playing Politics on Oil.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• DeSantis: “As Long as I am Governor, in Florida There Will Not be a Covid-19 Vaccine Mandate For Children in Our Schools” (VIDEO).
• Democrat Lawmaker Proposes ‘Boston Hijab Day’ to Honor Mahsa Amini Who Was Murdered by Iranian Regime for Not Wearing Hijab in Public.
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Michigan AG Dana Nessel Forced Security Team to Sign Non-Disclosure Statements After She Was Passed-Out Drunk and HAD TO BE REMOVED FROM MICHIGAN FOOTBALL GAME IN WHEELCHAIR.
• Biden Visit to Pittsburgh with John Fetterman a Total Disaster – Old Joe Struggles to Speak, Gets Lost Again (VIDEO).
• North Carolina School Board Votes to Forfeit All Volleyball Games Against School With Transgender Player After Girl Was Injured.
• BREAKING: CDC Votes to Recommend COVID-19 Shots for Children and Adolescents Annual Immunization Schedule in 15 Unanimous Votes.
• Never Forget: Kevin McCarthy Refused to Whip Votes on Trump’s Bogus Jan. 6 Impeachment – Leaked Audio Revealed He Was Going to Push Trump to Resign.
• Switzerland to Destroy 10 Million Doses of Expired Moderna’s COVID-19 Shot Worth $285 Million.
• 18 Questions for Ronna McDaniel and the RNC as the 2022 Midterm Quickly Approaches.
  

The Epoch Times:

• 7 Indicted in Alleged CCP Plot to Force US Resident to China.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 880,882 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through October 7th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 212.0 +15.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 117.0 +5.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.29 -.03%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.1 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.13 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.3 +1.0%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.95%.

• S&P 500 futures -.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.83%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AXP)/2.42
• (ALV)/1.24
• (HCA)/3.86
• (IPG)/.59
• (RF)/.59
• (SLB)/.55
• (VZ)/1.29
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report and the (GSK) investor event could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.6 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.3 +3.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.4 +.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.6 +1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +2.0%

• NYSE Arms .65 -30.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.68 +1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 387.86 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 433.0 -8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 136.09 -1.3% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 354.43 +.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 235.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 210.17 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.08 +.42%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.69 -.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 38.75 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 26.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -59.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  174.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 44.90 -.46%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .91 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.97% unch.
  

• Yield Curve -38.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 128.3 euros/megawatt-hour +14.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.5 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.0 +3.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.7 +1.6 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.44 -.15:  Growth Rate +15.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 15.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.10 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.85% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 76.2%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 49.2%(-3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.3%(-.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -100 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral