Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Cooling AI Stock Frenzy, Global Growth Worries, Energy/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .65%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.0 -5.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.0 -.91%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +9.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.6 +2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -37.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 +8.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.58 +28.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.9 +.63%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.24 +2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376.0 -23.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.0 +2.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 316.7 +1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.1 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 245.36 -.09%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.7 +.24%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 7.25 basis points -13.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 -.64%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +12.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour  +6.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.9 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +2.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) -3.6% -.6 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.74 +.07:  Growth Rate +2.8% unch., P/E 18.2 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 205.35 +.02: Growth Rate +34.9% unch., P/E 34.9 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.85 -14.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -76.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.90% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 49.8%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 40.1%(+11.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +62 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -3.5% 2) Oil Service -3.2% 3) Regional Banks -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AA, GLNG, BP, TOST, ABG, NVDA, KSS, ASAI, TPX, VIPS, AMD, E, MOD, STRL, ANET, BKE, PDD, M, F, DELL, TIMB, NVST, EL, MU, DAVA, HPQ, VRT, BWA, UPST, SMCI, WB, GPC, VSCO, BILI, IRTC, JWN, FRO, CVNA, MRVL, PUK, FRPT, HPE, HIBB, YY, LGF/A, DCI, VICR, HPK, AI, CPRI, HRZN, ASLE, SYM, UHAL, AMBA and AAP
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) AAP 3) VGK 4) AMBA 5) OKTA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AAP 2) AI 3) UHAL 4) HPE 5) KEY  
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Gold & Silver +1.9% 2) Utilities +1.0% 3) Cyber Security +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TWLO, INTC, PATH, EXTR, CAR and DRVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARMK 2) AAP 3) PEP 4) CRDO 5) TIP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SOFI 2) LL 3) TWLO 4) SCTH 5) PLMR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CONN)/-1.33
• (DG)/2.38
• (HRL)/.39
• (M)/.45
• (SPTN)/.59
  

After the Close: 

• (AVGO)/10.12
• (CHPT)/-.19
• (COO)/3.03
• (DELL)/.86
• (FIVE)/.63
• (LULU)/1.96
• (MDB)/.18
• (PD)/.09
• (S)/-.17
• (VMW)/1.55
• (ZS)/.42
• (ZUMZ)/-.86
  

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for May.

8:15 am EST

• ADP Employment Change for May is estimated to fall to 170K versus 296K in April.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 235K versus 229K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1800K versus 1794K the prior week.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in March.
• ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to 47.0 versus 47.1 in April.
• ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 52.3 versus 53.2 in April.

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,349,570 barrels versus a -12,456,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -832,710 barrels versus a -2,053,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +705,140 barrels versus a -561,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.64% versus a -.3% decline prior.

Afternoon 

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to fall to 15.3M versus 15.91M in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, Eurozone Retail Sales report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +1.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.3 +.3
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sector Rising
• 30.4% of Issues Advancing, 66.7% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
• 37.5%(-5.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.8 -5.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,394.7 +.07%
• 1-Day Vix 11.6 -14.7%
  
• Vix 18.2 +4.2% 
  
• Total Put/Call .99 +12.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.56 +26.8%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Accuses China of Risky Encounter Over the South China Sea,
• Sky High Hedge Costs Push Big Japan Insurers to Riskier Avenues.
• Brazil’s Credit Card Rates Climb to 450%, a Six-Year High.
• Why an Upgrade to ‘Developed’ Market Risks Backfiring on South Korea.
• Asian Shares Set to Fall as Congress Mulls Accord: Markets Wrap.
• McCarthy Confident on Debt Vote Despite Hard-Line Ouster Threat.
• HP Sales Decline Worse Than Expected as PC Slump Continues.
• Stock Traders Turn to Options for Desperate Chase to Catch the Tech Rally.
• Fed’s Barkin Says He’s Seeking Evidence Demand Is Coming Down.

Zero Hedge:

• Groom And Doom: Target Shares Mark Longest Losing Streak In Almost 5 Years.
• Target's Marketing VP Also Works For Organization Pushing Transgender Agenda In Schools.
• The Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To Collapse.
• US Flexes With Low B-1 Bomber Flyover As Balkan Tensions Boil.
• Watch: Chinese Fighter In 'Aggressive' Intercept Of US Spy Plane Over South China Sea.
• Faced With New Round Of Demonetization Indians Turn To Gold.
• Chicago Sees Deadliest Memorial Day Weekend In 8 Years Despite Hundreds Of Yellow-Vested 'Peacekeepers' In Streets.  
• Retail Sector Is The "Soft Underbelly" Of The Economy.
• Leftists Make Accusations Of 'Economic Terrorism' As Conservative Boycotts Succeed.
• "Safe Harbor": New Evidence Offers Insight Into Hunter Biden & His Collapsing World Of Corruption.
• "We Have A Captive Audience": Boston University To Require Students Take Social Justice Writing Courses.
• Beyond parabolic: NYFANG mimics August 2020 tech fever.
• Three Years Later, No Justice For BLM Insurrection In D.C.
• US stocks were cautious amid mixed data and after hardliners voiced opposition to the debt ceiling deal - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The Bankruptcy Caravan Is Now Arriving: Time To Pay For The Easy Money.
• Nvidia Joins The Trillion Dollar Club - Will It Last?
• Stocks mixed on debt ceiling deal but NVDA helps NDX outperform - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• AI-Mania Melt-Up Accelerates But Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Jump.

Wall Street Journal:

• AI Threat Placed on Par With Pandemics, Nuclear War.
• Once Mighty Intel Struggles to Escape ‘Mud Hole’.
• China’s Fading Recovery Reveals Deeper Economic Struggles.
• Company Insiders Made Billions Before SPAC Bust.
• U.S. Cities Thrive Again but Not Near Offices.
• Fungal Meningitis Tied to Mexico Cosmetic Surgeries.
• To Work Fewer Hours, They Put AI on the Job.
• Debt-Ceiling Bill Faces Test as Some GOP Critics Vent.

CNBC.com:

• Nvidia crosses into $1 trillion market cap before giving back gains.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Ambarella, Box, HP and more.
• Goldman Sachs is cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump.
• North Korea launches rocket likely connected to military spy satellite, South Korea says.
• Debt ceiling deal would push student loan borrowers into repayment by fall.

MarketWatch:

• Twilio shares rally after activist investor pressures company to shake up board, weigh divestitures: report
• How many working Americans need food stamps? The answer may surprise you.
• Ruling clears way for Purdue Pharma to settle opioid claims, protect Sacklers from lawsuits
• Opinion: Pausing rate hikes would saddle Americans with much higher inflation than the Fed’s 2% target.
• AI could bring ‘extinction’ and requires nuclear-war-level preparations, experts warn.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Matt Gaetz: McCarthy Can Be Ousted for Using Dem Votes.
• Comer Threatens FBI's Wray With Contempt of Congress.
• CatholicVote’s Burch: Dodgers ‘Bud Light of Baseball’.
• Rep. Rosendale Debt Deal Gives Biden a Blank Check.

Fox News:

• Bud Light suffers major sales drop-off after 'woke' controversy.
• Horrific video shows mob of teenagers allegedly assaulting group of Marines.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• House Freedom Caucus Leaves Open Possibility of Filing Motion to Vacate the Chair if McCarthy Pushes Through Debt Deal (VIDEO).
• New: FBI Refuses to Turn Over Subpoenaed Biden Bribe Document; Comer Says He Will ‘Take Steps” to Seek Contempt of Congress Vote.
• Target VP of Brand Management Is Board Member of GLSEN – A Radical LGBTQ Group That Promotes Grooming Pornography and Filth in Classrooms.
• Chicago Pride Event Will Feature ‘Drag Dress-up and Makeovers’ for Children — Sponsored By Lululemon.
• “NO”: Rep. Nancy Mace Eviscerates Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Deal, “Republicans got outsmarted by a President who can’t find his pants”.
• Another Strike on Vladimir Putin? Over Two Dozen Suspected ‘Ukrainian’ Kamikaze Drones Hit Wealthy Moscow Region Within “Earshot” of Putin’s Official Residence – Several Injuries Reported (VIDEO).
• Biden’s America: Chinese Fighter Jet Carried Out “Unnecessarily Aggressive” Maneuver Near US Air Force Plane Over South China Sea (VIDEO).
• Texas Lawmakers Pass Bill Banning Minors From ‘Sexualized Performances and Drag Shows’.
• “It is Inescapable to Me, It Has to be Done” – North Carolina Congressman Becomes First Republican to Signal Support for Ousting Kevin McCarthy Over Debt Ceiling Surrender to Joe Biden (VIDEO).
• Bill Gates’ Young Russian Lover Linked to Kremlin Spy Anna Chapman – Suspicions Arise That He May Have Been Targeted for Kompromat – Epstein Tried to Blackmail Microsoft Boss Over His Affair.
• Peer-Reviewed Study Finds Substantial “Sudden and Sustained” Increase in Excess Mortality in Early 2021.
• HUGE! Kari Lake Drops a Bomb on War Room After Video Is Released of Maricopa County Employees Reprogramming Machines to Fail: “We Have MORE Video Coming Out”.
• Disneyland Hires Man In Dress to Greet Little Girls At Bibbidy Bobbidi Boutique.

 The Epoch Times:

• China to Become Biggest Challenger to UK’s Economic Security in 2030, Defence Intelligence Chief.
• IN-DEPTH: The CCP Fears US Containment—Is This What Washington is Doing?
• Chinese Fighter Jet Intercepts US Plane Over South China Sea.

Twitter: 

• @GRDecter - Buying now costs 45% more than renting on a monthly basis. And that's BEFORE putting down 20% to buy the house. How can the average American afford to buy? (graph)
• @zerohedge - Biggest gap on record. (graph)
• @toddstarnes - Protest Anthem ‘Boycott Target’ Tops iTunes Hip Hop Chart.
• @Night_Market - The libraries’ & shops' action has spilled over to Hong Kong schools too, with some anxious educators pulling potentially sensitive books from their shelves. Some have removed George Orwell’s classics, Animal Farm and 1984.
• @USMortality - Looks like Germany is catching up to the massive US excess mortality almost 3 years after the pandemic started… (graph)
• @MarketRebels - Mortgage rates have hit over 7%. This makes the average housing payment +12.7% higher than a year ago. (graph)
• @jsolomonReports - Watch: Rep. Biggs: The debt limit deal undermines Republicans and legitimizes Democrats. Watch: Rep. Perry breaks down how the debt limit deal lets down Americans.
• @MikeASperrazza - BREAKING: 31 House Republicans will vote against debt ceiling bill..Numbers are expected to increase significantly.
• @nicksortor - #BREAKING: The new debt bill will actually INCREASE the number of SNAP (food stamp) recipients, according to a projection by the Congressional Budget Office. Approximately 78,000 new recipients will become eligible for SNAP in an average month.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 961,352 Reports(+1,715 from prior week) Through May 12th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.0 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 64.5 -2.0 basis points
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.5 -.17%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.7 -.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +15.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.