Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (ORCL)/1.58
  

Economic Releases    

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for May is estimated at -$236.0B versus $176.2B in April.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Money Supply report, 2Y/10Y T-Note auctions, Goldman Healthcare Conference, Morgan Stanley Financials/CRE Conference, Oppenheimer Consumer/E-Commerce Conference and the (NVS) capital markets day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +5.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.2 +1.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 45.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.0% Declining
• 47 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 51.4%(-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.0 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,253.8 +.89%
• 1-Day Vix 9.1 -17.8%
  
• Vix 13.6 -.6% 
  
• Total Put/Call .69 -20.7%
• TRIN/Arms .49 -59.8%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• UK Likely to Dodge Recession With ‘Anemic’ Growth, BCC Says.
• Chip Titan TSMC's First Factory in Japan Has to Contend With Horrible Traffic.
• Asia Stocks Advance on Heels of S&P 500’s Bull Run: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Second Weekly Drop as Demand Concerns Return to Fore.
• Google Union Pushes Back on Three-Day Return-to-Office Mandate.
• US Homeowners Saw First Equity Loss Since 2012 Last Quarter.
• ‘Old Economy’ Stocks Poised to Pick Up Slack When AI Mania Eases.
• Fed Pause Hopes Put Beaten-Down Dividend-Paying Stocks Back in Play. 
• US Jobless Claims Surge to 261,000, Highest Since October 2021.
• Lithium Shortages Could Hand Salt a Starring Role in EV Shift.
• World’s Biggest Banks Pull Back From Odey After New Allegations.
• Carvana Short Sellers Lose $1 Billion After Record Rally.
• Leaving New York for Miami Can Save Nearly $200,000.
• Humans Are Biased. Generative AI Is Even Worse.
• How Buybacks Came to Drive the Stock Market.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump: "I Have Been Indicted".
• Tucker Talks Taboos After MSM Ignores Instagram Kiddie-Porn Bombshell.
• Jaw Dropping Stats - Reports Of Bud Light Memorial Day Sales Dropping -60% As Brand Boycott Continues.
• Revealed: Bombshell FBI Document Alleges $5 Million Bribe Paid To Joe Biden By Burisma Exec.
• Rickards: The Coming Shock To The Global Monetary System.
• Inflation & Biden Regulations Are Making Life Hard; Small Business Owners Say.
• "Chaos": McCarthy Throws Tantrum, Cancels Votes For Rest Of Week After Freedom Caucus Fracas.
• CEO: "I Talked To 48 Lenders About Debt For A New Apartment Project. Zero Came Back With A Bid".
• China's Persistent Gold Accumulation: A Seven-Month Surge In Holdings.
• Happy days.
• Goldman: Everyone Is Looking At The Most Shorted Consumer Discretionary Stocks.
• "Worse Than Yesterday": Dense Wildfire Smoke Moving Over Nation's Capital.
• S&P 500 entered a bull market and tech outperformed as yields declined due to a spike in initial jobless claims - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Japan Begins Secretly Releasing Irradiated Water From Fukushima Disaster Into The Ocean.
• West Coast Dockworkers Making $200K Demand Higher Pay.
• Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Usage Tops $100 Billion For First Time As Money-Market Inflows Soared Again.
• Tech leads SPX into bull market as yields and Dollar tumble on spike in jobless claims - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Is AI The Beginning Of The End, Or Just A Beginning?
• VIX Dumps, Gold Pumps, Jobless Jump As Trillion-Dollar Bill-Bomb Looms.

Wall Street Journal:

• White House Prepares Plan B on Student Loans.
• S&P Enters Bull Market as Big Tech Lifts Indexes
• Smoky Conditions to Last for Days as Wildfires Persist
• Ukraine Targets Russian Lines as Counteroffensive Gathers Pace
• Home Insurers Curb New Policies in Risky Areas Nationally.
• As U.S. Shifts Focus to Russia and China, Islamic State Continues Killing.

CNBC.com:

• GM to use Tesla charging network, joining Ford in leveraging the EV leader’s tech.
• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg touts to employees ‘incredible breakthroughs’ the company has seen in A.I.
• Carvana shares surge after the company boosts second-quarter guidance.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DocuSign, General Motors, Vail Resorts and more.
• FDA advisors recommend AstraZeneca, Sanofi antibody to protect babies from RSV.

MarketWatch:

• Here’s the Air-Quality Index of cities in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest as Canadian wildfires put many under air quality advisories.
• ‘Like unfiltered cigarettes’: Why is wildfire smoke so dangerous for the lungs?
• Odds of U.S. ‘hard landing’ rising after Fed’s refusal to pause rate hikes earlier this year, warns Cam Harvey.
• The curious case of a regional bank’s insider stock sales.

 Newsmax:

• FBI Doc: Burisma Exec Paid Biden $5M in Alleged Bribe Scheme.
• Dershowitz: Trump Indictment Worrying.
• Alina Habba: Trump Indictment Would Be DOJ Abuse.

Fox News:

• Specific criminal allegations against President Biden in FBI document revealed.
• Garth Brooks makes his new bar's stance on Bud Light crystal clear.
• Woman goes viral for saying it's hard to find 'masculine' man who's not conservative.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Satellite Imagery from College of DuPage Meteorology Department Shows Over a Dozen Fires in Quebec Start Up at Almost the Exact Same Time.
• Reporter Asks Joe Biden About “Evidence in an FBI File” Showing He “Sold Out the Country” – Biden Blurts Out Damning Response! (VIDEO).
• Weaponization Committee Uncovers New Information Suggesting FTC is Targeting Elon Musk’s Twitter.
• Breaking: Tucker Carlson Releases Episode 2 of His Twitter Series – Questions Obama’s “Highly Creepy Personal Life” and the Epidemic of Child Sex Abuse.
• Here We Go… NASA Warns of Internet Apocalypse that Will Disable Internet for Months.
• Marine Vet Daniel Penny Shares Why He Stepped In to Subdue Jordan Neely-“He Would Have Killed Somebody”.
• Unbelievable! Salute to the LBGTQ?? San Francisco Police Record Viral Video Saluting the Pride Flag (Video).
• Georgia’s WEF Puppet Governor Brian Kemp Rolls Out Digital IDs for All Citizens.
• Poll: Large Percentage Of Republicans Turning Away From Target – Where Else Can We Shop?
• NEW BOMBSHELL: OKI Ballot Printer Company Sends DAMNING “Response to Factual Errors in Maricopa County Elections Report” Debunking Maricopa County’s Lies About Ballot Printer Failures – LEFTWING MEDIA SILENT.
  

 The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Navy Cuts Off US Ship, Intending to Test US Bottom Line in Taiwan Strait: Military Expert.
• Lawmakers Warn of New Cold War as China Reportedly Seeks Spy Base in Cuba.
• IN-DEPTH: War in South China Sea Would Devastate Global Economy, Especially China’s: Experts.

Twitter: 

• @songpinganq - It's happening in China now. Once you are blacklisted by social credit system, you can no longer use China's CBDC digital wallet-Alipay or Wechat pay. Which means you can't order food, book hotel room, buy train/plane tickets...etc online. (video) Total Control: Chinese citizens' every move is being watched, scored, and sanctioned by the Social Credit System. China's SKYNET is spying on all of its 1.4 billion citizens in real-time, to give them a personal social credit score, based how they behave. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - Instagram Promotes Disturbing Network of Pedophiles. The Meta-owned platform hosts underage-sex content and builds a network of pedophiles with similar interests in illegal content, suggesting them to sellers of child-sex material. SALUTE THE FLAG — POSTED ON OFFICIAL US AIRFORCE ACCOUNT. Feelings towards the FBI (poll).
  
• @MattWalshBlog - 1/ BREAKING: The largest “trans healthcare” providers in the U.S. are rubber-stamping letters approving gruesome, life-altering surgeries. It’s such a racket that my producer was approved for testicle removal in #22minutes. The tape is disturbing.
• @AsiansLiberty - Imagine a society where everything you do, everything you say, and everything you buy is 'controlled and evaluated' by the authorities... this is a reality known as China's Communist Party's social credit system. Resist this pressure-filled draconian system from becoming a norm. (video)
• @EthicalSkeptic - More kids dying NOW than died during DELTA. 26.4% to the excess. (graph)
• @wesyang - Martine Rothblatt, the transhumanist trans-ID male centi-millionaire who wrote a book on how transgenderism is a bridge to transhumanism, was recently added to the board of the Mayo Clinic.
• @carolmswain - Why do we have a shortage of cancer drugs? Why would intelligent leaders trust hostile nations to supply unpolluted medical and food supplies? How about drugs to their troops.
• @scarlett4kids - Wisconsin Dept of Instruction PROMOTES GENDER IDEOLOGY and benefits of early experimentation with a myriad of new "gender identities" to 3-4 YEAR OLDS! "Call me Tree" is a book recommended to pre-k children as young as 3 years old.
• @DrLoupis -  BILL GATES - This is Bill’s mosquito factory in Colombia. It’s the largest in the world. 30 million genetically modified mosquitoes are released every week into 11 countries. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 963,283 Reports(+1,415 from prior week) Through May 26th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.0 -3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 110.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.1 -.5%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +1.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 +.12%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .65%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.5 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.37 -.09%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.62 -.52%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.2 -3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 -15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -8.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +44.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.9 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 389.22 +.89%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 432.0 +23.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.87 +.36% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 297.19 +.21%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.9 -.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.56 +.79%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.16 +.31%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 730.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 87.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.4 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.24% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.87%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour  +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.2 -5.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -90.5 -2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.4 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) -2.7% +.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.31 +.11:  Growth Rate +2.9% unch., P/E 18.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.06 +.49: Growth Rate +35.7% unch., P/E 35.7 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.28 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -81.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% -2.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.0%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 48.3%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/industrial/tech/medical sector longs a
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 575% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NIO)/-2.80

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report and the (DASTY) capital markets day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -5.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.1 -.3
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 43.6% of Issues Advancing, 53.8% Declining
• 71 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 51.2%(-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.7 -1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,071.8 +.64%
• 1-Day Vix 10.1 -8.3%
  
• Vix 13.6 -2.2% 
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -8.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 +53.6%