Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.9 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.5 -1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Technical Selling, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +4.9% -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 256.04 -.17:  Growth Rate +12.4% -2.5 percentage points, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.38 +.11: Growth Rate +36.7% +.1%, P/E 32.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .93 -19.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .93 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -44.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.8% -1.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 80.1%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.7%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -47 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BJ)/.83
• (MDT)/1.45
• (MNRO)/.30
• (NTES)/12.59
• (RL)/1.67
• (SCVL)/.60
• (TITN)/.61
• (WB)/.36
  

After the Close: 

• (INTU)/9.38
• (LGF/A)/.11
• (ROST)/1.35
• (WDAY)/1.58
• (AMWD)/1.78
• (ADSK)/1.75
• (DECK)/2.97
• (DLTR)/1.43
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to .13 versus .15 in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 222K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1793K versus 1794K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May is estimated to fall to 49.9 versus 50.0 in April.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for May is estimated to fall to 51.2 versus 51.3 in April.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for May is estimated to fall to 51.2 versus 51.3 in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 678K versus 693K in March.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for May is estimated to rise to -7 versus -8 in April.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DD) annual meeting, (MHK) annual meeting, (RJF) investor day, (JXN) annual meeting, (ONON) annual meeting, (NOW) annual meeting, (VNO) annual meeting, (RMAX) annual meeting and the American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.6 +1.5
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 36.3% of Issues Advancing, 61.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .75 -33.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$259.5M
  
• 102 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
• 63.1% (-.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.3 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.6 -.12%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,309.6 -.13%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (Greed) -2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 +79.0%
  
• Vix 12.1 +2.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -4.9%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• End of China's Boom Years Risks Political Peril for Xi.
• China May Raise Tariffs on Some US, EU Cars, Lobby Group Says.
• Short Positions Show Waning Confidence in China Stocks Rally.
• Asian Stocks Struggle After US Hits Fresh Record.
• Oil Declines as Industry Report Points to Swelling US Stockpiles.
• Morgan Stanley’s Slimmon Sees Stocks Soaring Beyond Record Highs.
• Waller Says Fed Could Cut Rates at ‘End of This Year’ If Data Softens.
• Barclays Managers Warn Some Staff to Prepare for Five Days a Week in Office.
• ‘I Don’t Want to Save Penn’: Alumni Break Over University’s Future.

Zerohedge:  

• Biden Drains Entire Northeast Gasoline Reserve In Bid To Lower Gas Prices As He Trails Trump By Double Digits.
• Trump Defense Rests Without Former President Taking The Stand.
• Aluminum Jumps To 23-Month High Amid Ongoing Aussie Production Issues.
• Watch: First X Call Using Starlink Direct-To-Cell Tech With An Unmodified Smartphone.
• Microplastics Found In Human Testicles.
• ELFs Are The Single Greatest Threat To Our Enduring Liberties.
• "The End Of Everything": Victor Davis Hanson On The Gravest Threats To America.
• Neocon Queen Of Darkness Calls For US To Bomb Russian Targets Within Russia.
• Salman Rushdie Says Free Palestinian State Would Be 'Taliban-Like'.
• US stocks edged higher in catalyst-light trade as markets await FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• These Cars Have The Highest And Lowest Depreciation One Year Off The Lot.
• Quiet Mania.
• EPA's Clean Power Plan Rule Prioritizes Net-Zero Over Grid Reliability.
• 'Deadly Force' An Option: New Docs Show FBI Agents Were Prepared For Secret Service Resistance At Mar-a-Lago.
• WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Unexpected Crude Build.
• Jack Smith's Appointment Violated The Constitution, Some Legal Experts Argue.
• Stocks Inch Higher As Fearless Vol-Sellers Continue To Push Ahead Of NVDA/FOMC Mins.

Wall Street Journal:

• Western Officials Brace for Volatile Iran After Raisi Death.
• What Entry-Level Jobs Really Look Like Today.
• The Highest Paid CEOs of 2023.
• Festival Features Dartmouth President, Ray Dalio, Lina Khan, Awkwafina.
• Angry Airport Encounter Pushes Hurricane-Relief Bill Forward.
• How Wall Street Lenders Are Betting Big on the AI Boom.
• Blackstone to Grant Equity to Most Employees in Future U.S. Buyouts.
• Chinese Activist Who Posted Videos From Covid-Hit Wuhan Has Left Prison.
• How China Is Beating the West in the Minerals War.

CNBC.com:

• Trump campaign starts taking cryptocurrency donations, vows to build a ‘crypto army’.
• Here’s where rents are rising — and where they’re falling.
• One dead, 30 injured as Singapore Airlines flight encounters severe turbulence.
• ‘Big Short’ investor Steve Eisman: Apple is the ‘hidden AI play’.
• Pixar is laying off 14% of its workforce as Disney scales back content.
  

MarketWatch.com: 

• This chart shows why Biden is struggling with a key demographic.

Fox News:

• New documents reveal Biden DOJ authorized 'use of deadly force' in Mar-a-Lago raid.
• Boeing whistleblower John Barnett's final words revealed in explosive suicide note.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• NEW: Trump Lawyer Christina Bobb Arraigned on Junk Charges Related to 2020 Alternate Electors.
• Can’t Make This Up… James Comey Warns MSNBC Cranks that Trump Will “Target His Enemies” Like Comey Did to Trump with Completely Fraudulent Russian Collusion Hoax.
• “BIDEN’S DOJ WAS AUTHORIZED TO SHOOT ME!”: President Trump Responds to Reports Deadly Force Authorized in Mar-a-Lago Raid.
• ‘From the River to the Sea’ Is a Criminally Punishable ‘Call to Violence’ – Dutch Lower House of Parliament Approves Geert Wilders’ Party Bill.
• EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Kari Lake DOMINATING in GOP U.S. Senate Primary but Will Arizona’s Rigged Elections Favor Mark Lamb Who Has “Seen Zero Evidence” of Election Fraud? (VIDEO).
• ‘Commander Creep’: Joe Biden Advises Young Men To ‘Marry Into A Family With Five Or More Daughters…One of Them Will Always Love You’.
• JUST IN: Giuliani Arraigned on Junk Charges Related to Arizona Alternate Electors, Pleads Not Guilty, Posts $10,000 Bond.
• Dr Peter McCullough: “Bird Flu is the Next Disease X”.
• Benny Johnson Exposes Democrats’ Ghettoization Of America In The ‘Most Dangerous’ TARGET Store *This Is Absurd* (VIDEO).
• ‘Pure Fiction’: Trump Will Sue Filmmakers Who Depicted Him Raping Wife Ivana.
• Biden’s Economic Policies, Not Corporate Profits, Are Driving Inflation.

The Epoch Times:

• China’s Overcapacity Ignites Trade Tensions With US, Europe.
• The CCP’s Hidden Role in Pro-Hamas Protests.
• China Launches Anti-Dumping Probe Into EU, US, Japan, Taiwan Plastics as Trade Tensions Intensify.

Around X:

• @libsoftiktok
  

• WOW! Insanely powerful speech by Superintendent of @CobbSchools speaking against p**nogr*phic books in schools. “Anyone working in education who knowingly provides students with access to s*xually explicit material, should not be in a position of educating other parents' children." (video)
  

• @amuse

• LAWFARE: Do you know how many Republican lawyers and activists are under attack by Democrat prosecutors and lawyers? Over 400. They're facing indictments, civil suits, and disbarment in an effort to keep them from ensuring election integrity in November.

• @TheKevinDalton

• Bidenomics!!!! (table)

•  @MidwesternDoc

• A CDC director just admitted: •Federal officials who warned the COVID vaccines weren't safe were "cancelled" by the officials who didn't want to make the public hesitant to vaccinate. •He knows numerous people with vax injuries. •Most Americans didn't need the vax. (video)

• @Cernovich

• The FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago was designed to provoke a response. This was an assassination attempt on President Trump. (pic)

• @VigilantFox

• NEW: Joe Rogan says he would be “IN JAIL” if podcasters called people plague rats and pushed dangerous medical products while the mainstream urged people to be wary of potential side effects. This is how you know you are on the right side of history: (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• Every American Needs To Hear This. Congress Rep Jodey Arrington “I want everybody to listen to this stat”. “$9,000 roughly per illegal immigrant that taxpayers are are fronting. - That's more than we spend per Medicaid beneficiary. - That's more than we spend on the most vulnerable American citizen for their health care. - That's more than we spend for our heroes, our veterans, in the way of military, retirement benefits. (video)
• Corporations Are Buying More American Homes. Tricon CEO Says Them Buying Homes Is Good For Society & You Don’t Want To Own A Home. Tricon Rental Housing is expanding “To buy 800 houses a month” They say Americans “Don't necessarily desire to own a home or to own a car.” (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• German Parliament vote to decriminalise possession of child pornography. The decision was celebrated by ‘rights for pedophiles’ activists. We keep warning you - the insane far radical left are coming for your kids. They want to normalise MAPS (Minor attracted persons) & it starts by doing so in law. Absolutely sick.
• New World Order & Agenda 2030. “An obliteration of our basic liberties”. “A new world order that decides what we eat & where we travel”. “Basically control over every aspect of our lives”. This really isn’t a conspiracy, it’s openly talked about & you will notice many State Targets are for this particular year 2030 as part of the Agenda which amounts to Technocratic Communism. (video)

• @Mick_O_Keeffe
  

• It's difficult to describe the Irish anti-immigration movement in words, so here's 35 minutes of footage from all over the country. (video)

• @newstart_2024

• Tucker Carlson: "Let's say you believed every piece of science or scientific claim bout global climate change. You would not reach the same policy conclusions. You'd be like, well the first thing we need to do is ban private air travel 'cause obviously that doesn't make any sense...You go through every "climate demand", not one of them disempowers large organizations whether it's NGOs or the government of the US. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• They get these children to fall in love with these characters… and then they do things like this.. Imagine what this does to a child’s psychology… They’re coming for our children in every way. Keep an eye on what they consume. (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• ALERT: US federal budget crosses grim milestone as interest payments overtake defense spending. This is very BAD ... 
• Locals are destroying equipment being used to build houses for illegal fake refugees near Clonmel Ireland. The equipment rental company is refusing to provide any more. The government is at war versus the local population. (video)
• The new Prime Minister of Italy has been such a disappointment. Giorgia Meloni was elected on promises that she would stop this. Even deploy the Italian navy and start sinking ships. She has done nothing. (video)
• They're Going To Make Sure You Don't Eat Real Meat. I will avoid it if possible, will never trust this. "Soon, the entire world will start eating meat printed on a printer" "We won't even be able to tell if it's real meat or not" "This isn't a plot from Black Mirror; it's our reality unfolding" "Scientists claim that by using this technology, the 'environmental impact' of livestock farming will be reduced". (video)

• @JDunLap1974

• Georgia Election Board member apologizes to the people for not taking election fraud claims seriously after overwhelming evidence. (video)

•  @CartlandDavid

• U.S. Court Rules University's Covid Vaccine Mandate Was Illegal, Opening Door to Massive Lawsuits - 21st Century Wire. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 122.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +4.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.4 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.13%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Pharma Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) +5.1% -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 256.21 +.30:  Growth Rate +14.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.27 +.51: Growth Rate +36.6% +.2%, P/E 32.0 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -42.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.1% -.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 76.4%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 51.8%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -81 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +92 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long