Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.02%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.85% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 92.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.54 euros/megawatt-hour +4.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.1 +3.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -33.6 -2.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.6 -.3 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +15.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.69 -.22: Growth Rate +14.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 350.09 +.34: Growth Rate +23.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -9.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.99% +52.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 70.4% -.5 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% -2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 50.7%(unch.) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 42.2%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +270 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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