Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Fed Rate-Cut Optimism, Short-Covering, Transport/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.6 -1.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79 n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.4 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.9 +.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.60 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.7 -2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 163.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

• NYSE Arms .81 -14.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$1.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.7 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 327.0 +.28%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 251 +18
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.2 +.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.7 -.11%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.7 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.6 -1.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 158.2 +3.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 +.22%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -20.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 125.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 709.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.4 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.8 -4.2 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.0 -1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +4.9% -.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.59 -.28:  Growth Rate +14.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.57 +12.49: Growth Rate +27.7% +4.4 percentage points, P/E 31.6 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .69 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 19.5 basis point (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.9% -1.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 48.9%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 38.9%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +355 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long