Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.23%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +2.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +7.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.6 +.5 basis point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +1.1 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +28.4% +23.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.70 +.08: Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.05 +.32: Growth Rate +27.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.3 -.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .76 +11.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 16.75 basis point (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.9 -.5 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.5%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +536 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +490 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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