Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Diminished China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Selling, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.3 euros/megawatt-hour +5.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.0 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.7 +1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +5.4% +.5 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.62 +.03:  Growth Rate +14.1% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.68% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.73 +.16: Growth Rate +27.7% unch., P/E 31.5 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 -4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 22.5 basis point (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 63.4 +.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 49.2%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 39.9%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +85 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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