Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (AVGO)/10.85
• (PLAY)/1.73
• (OXM)/2.68

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in April.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for May.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -886,000 barrels versus a +1,233,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise +867,860 barrels versus a +2,102,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,561,000 barrels versus a +3,197,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.2% versus a +1.1% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for May is estimated at -$275.0B versus -$240.3B in April.
• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 5.25-5.5%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, WASDE report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for June, IEA Monthly report, (ZS) investor meeting, (TGT) annual meeting, (DKS) annual meeting, (SHAK) annual meeting, (CAT) annual meeting, (BBY) annual meeting, (ANF) annual meeting, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce conference, Evercore ISE Consumer/Retail conference, Morgan Stanley Financial Payments/CRE conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare conference, RBC Mining/Materials Conference and the Wells Fargo Industrials conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.9 +1.4
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 29.0% of Issues Advancing, 68.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.18 +28.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$377.4M
  
• 36 New 52-Week Highs, 55 New Lows
• 52.7% (-3.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.9 -4.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.6 -.43%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,302.4 +1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.6 +40.5%
  
• Vix 13.1 +2.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 -3.3%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• BOJ Expected to Weigh Bond Buying Cuts as Rate Hike Timing Nears
• Emerging Currencies Drop as EU Elections Add to Political Risks.
• Asian Stocks Cautious Ahead of Key US Indicators.
• Oil Extends Advance as Traders Wait for OPEC Outlook on Market.
• NYC Landlord to Sell Office Building at Roughly 67% Discount.
• The AI Chip Behind Nvidia’s Supersonic Stock Rally.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:  

• Elon Slams Apple's Farcical "AI" Launch, Says Will Ban Tim Cook's "Creepy Spyware" Devices If They Integrate OpenAI.
• "This Is Insane": US-Linked Ukrainian NGO Unveils 'Enemies List' Including ZeroHedge, Tucker, Elon And Trump.
• Pro-Palestinian Protests Invade Wall Street.
• The Tension Between The 'Centralized Manager Class' & Reality Is "Explosive".
• Federal Court Revives Lawsuit Against Los Angeles COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate.
• Here Are The 5 Supreme Court Issues Set To Reshape America's Political Landscape.
• Speed Cameras In Atlanta Improperly Issued $300,000 To $500,000 Worth Of Tickets.
• "It's Trump Vs World War III" - Martin Armstrong Warns "The Swamp Is Now An Ocean".
• US stocks eked mild gains in quiet trade ahead of Wednesday's US CPI and FOMC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Russia's Oil & Gas Revenues Surged By 73.5% In January-May.
• What Exec Order? Biden Memo Instructs SoCal Border Patrol To Release Most Single Adults
• VDH: The Left Knows Leftism Doesn't Work.
• Lime Scooters Geofences 'No Go Zone' Over Pride Flag On Spokane City Street.
• Biden To Offer Saudi Arabia Defense Treaty In Exchange For Official Ties With Israel.
• Stocks post marginal gains in pre Fed/CPI trade - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Here Are The Key Takeaways From The EU Elections.
• Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold Bid As Stocks & Bonds Shrug Off EU Elections.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Fall of Germany’s Greens. European voters are souring on the costs of net-zero climate policies.
• Apple Intelligence: A Guide to Apple’s AI-In-Everything Strategy.
• White House Prepares to Tap Derivatives Regulator to Oversee FDIC.
• Climate Change Is Coming for the Finer Things in Life.

CNBC.com:

• Here’s everything Apple announced at WWDC24: Apple Intelligence, Siri with ChatGPT, iOS 18 and more.
• Elon Musk threatens to ban Apple devices from his companies over OpenAI partnership.
• Taiwan’s energy crunch could ‘throw a wrench’ into the global chip industry.
• UAW president under investigation by federal monitor.
• What to expect from the housing market in the second half of 2024, according to real estate experts.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Opinion: What investors may be getting wrong about Apple’s AI strategy.
• GameStop’s stock slides as investors await next moves for meme stocks.
• Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug gets backing from FDA advisers.
• Stocks on the road (again) to record highs, says UBS.

Fox News:

• FDA issues dire warning over 'microdosing' chocolate bars: 'Do not eat, sell or serve'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• THE PELOSI INSURRECTION: New Video Reveals Pelosi Taking Responsibility for Unprotected US Capitol on Jan. 6 – After She Called Off National Guard.
• Victor Reacts: Society is the Joke, Cervix is Now Called “Front Hole” (VIDEO).
• Mike Cernovich: Ben Carson As Trump’s VP Offers “Assassination Insurance”.
• Chancellor Scholz HUMILIATED in German European Elections – His Social Democrats Come in Third Place – AfD Surges To Second Spot – Opposition Calls for Early Elections.
• Idaho Farmers Issue Stark Warning About Nationwide Consequences After State Government Issues Order to Shut Off Their Water Supply: “Farms and banks will fail!” [VIDEO].
• Inside J6 With Larry Stackhouse in First Interview by Recently Released J6er – Incredible Insight Into Hopelessness and Despair Many J6er’s Suffer.
• Mob of Looters Ransack AutoZone Store in Lawless California (VIDEO).
• Participation Trophy Alert: Actor John Leguizamo Runs Full Page Ad in NY Times Urging Emmy Voters to Pick Non-White Candidates.
• SHOCK POLL: Reality Bites! – 84% of Americans Believe They Will Be Worse Off Under a Second Joe Biden Term.
• U.S. Government PSYOP Needs to be Zeroed Out and Re-started Under Constitutional Principles.
• Reality Check for ‘Queers for Palestine’ Delivered Directly From Palestinian Leaders-“Homosexuals Should Be Thrown Head First From The Rooftop Of The Tallest Building:”.
• Spain Is Realizing It Made a Huge Mistake Backing Palestinians.

The Epoch Times:

• The Hollowing of China.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 unch. basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.4 +.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.2 -3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US Growth Prospects, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +4.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .48 -47.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.5 +2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.9 -.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.7 +1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.1 +1.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 -15.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 +7.1%

• NYSE Arms .83 -15.3%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$209.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 264.0 -.35%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 298 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.7 +3.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 167.6 +3.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.4 +.01%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.6 -.64%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 121.8 -1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 725.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.6 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.2 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.9 -3.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.51 +.26:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 330.91 +.48: Growth Rate +23.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -41.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% +50.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.1% -.2 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 91.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 51.0%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +277 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Modestly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -1.5% 2) Regional Banks -1.2% 3) Video Gaming -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RGP, SNOW, MCS, ILMN, HBAN, CORT, CELH, MEI and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CLOVE 2) KEY 3) IMVT 4) NTAP 5) ASO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) PERI 3) NARI 4) VFS 5) CMP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IXC 2) XLE 3) XBI 4) XRT 5) VOX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.4% 2) Alt Energy +1.9% 3) Semis +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IE, TDW, WHD, SMHI, KKR, VIRT, DO, OPRA, INOD, ALTR, RBA, VAL, ALTR, KRYS, STEP, CLBT, LUV, PAR, CEG, CRDO, NE, DNUT, NXT, RPAY, SDRL, BROS, OSCR, WMG, FSLR, ERO, PLNT, SMTC, APO, ANF, TRML, NICE, SOC, BMRN, SMTC, IMNM, NOAH, MTN, GM, OWL, GLNG, QRVO, SYM, CYBR and SYM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XPOF 2) DXC 3) CRK 4) INCY 5) SMG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ICCH 2) KKR 3) CRWD 4) TPL 5) SMLR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) XLY 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume