Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CTAS)/1.0

After the Close: 

• (CNXC)/2.93
• (FUL)/1.23
• (JEF)/.78
• (MU)/1.11
• (WS)/.55
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 700K versus 739K in July.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -937,860 barrels versus a -1,630,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to fall by -118,140 barrels versus a +69,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories is estimated to fall by -1,217,430 barrels versus a +125,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.24% versus a -.7% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Krugler speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (META) Connect 2024, (KFY) annual meeting, RBC Communications Infra Conference and the BofA Financials CEO Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -1.5
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 41.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .80 -15.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$3.3M
  
• 182 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 59.8% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.5 -.05%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.9 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,805.3 +.47%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.2 -8.5%
  
• Vix 15.6 -1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Pretty sure I saw this scene in The Joker. Philadelphia, PA. (video)
• Wow. Democrats dominate academia. (graph)
  

• @JackPosobiec

• Wild how Oprah is doing hour-long infomercials for Kamala right after the FBI seized the Diddy tapes. (pic)

• @kylenabecker

• FLASHBACK: This was the 2020 moment when Americans knew something was *TERRIBLY WRONG* with their elections. You can see it in their eyes they had no doubt that Biden would win. (video)

• @ScottPresler

• I’ve been to a lot of Trump rallies. This line is INCREDIBLY long. The amount of young people is shocking Indiana County, PA. (video)
  

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Mark Robinson has been activated. He just said he's "Coming After CNN Full Throttle" for creating a hoax to lynch his historic campaign for governor. He's reacting by going on offense instead of letting the lies flourish. "Everything is up to legal counsel to take CNN to task for what they have done to us. We are going to go after them." (video)

• @charliekirk11

• A newly resurfaced 2018 video obtained by DailyMail shows Kamala Harris chanting alongside protesters and Jussie Smollet: “Down down with deportation.” “Up up with agitation.” “Down down with deportation.” I’m sure she’ll say she’s since changed her position… (video)
• So the NFL has rolled out what it calls a “non-partisan” NFL Votes initiative. The only problem? All the orgs it partners with are Democrat, leftwing GOTV groups!

• @libsoftiktok

• Nine former national security and military officials who signed a letter Sunday endorsing Kamala Harris also signed a letter nearly four years ago dismissing Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop as Russian disinformation. (pic)
• Chicago is about to go up in flames like an active warzone. The Chicago gangs are furious that Venezuelanan gang Tren de Aragua are coming and trying to take over. Tensions are rising… (video)

• @stillgray
  

• AOC along with several other members of Congress are “looking into” ways of “reining in the media environment.” She says that censorship is necessary “so that you can’t just spew disinformation.” Who made her the arbiter of the truth? They’re coming for X. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW! Entire Hotel Full Of Illegal Migrants & Hotel Security Confirms Their Stay Is Only Through November 15th. Just long enough to vote and rig our Presidential Election. “100% occupied by illegals from Honduras — Their stay is until November 15th. So you do the math. I wonder why they're here until November 15th….”

• @EndWokeness

• 16 pet cats have suddenly disappeared in Bangor, Maine. No remains were found. Experts don't believe an animal did this. Bangor just had an influx of Haitians. (video)

• @BillAckman
  

• Let’s not forget that @POTUS Biden was the Democratic presidential candidate 63 days ago. We were told by the administration and the media that Biden was in perfect health and that videos of him exhibiting serious deterioration were ‘right wing propaganda.’ Then, threatened with the 25th amendment, on July 21st, he stepped aside to be replaced by @KamalaHarris who was complicit in the lie. She knew, and she told the American people otherwise. Her reward for keeping quiet was to become the presidential candidate without a primary or other transparent process for her selection. The Biden lie is perhaps the greatest lie ever told to the American people by our government. And this lie was also told to us repeatedly with a bold face by the current Democratic nominee for president.
  

• @MrAndyNgo
  

• The U.S. State Department has issued a Level 4 dire warning to not travel to Haiti due to violent crime and kidnappings. The same administration has overseen the importing of hundreds of thousands of Haitians into the U.S. interior. Read:

• @wideawake_media

• Award-winning journalist, Alex Newman: "What they're doing with the WHO is one of the most breathtaking global power grabs we have seen in all of recorded human history." "They are... seeking the power to turn the WHO into... a global Ministry of Health." "When you look at how they define health emergencies... which is that everything essentially [including climate change, racism and gun violence] is a public health emergency... every area of your life would then fall under the purview of this entity, if it was able to usurp this power that it is seeking." "They intend to slam through [the WHO Pandemic Treaty]... and they promise they're going to do that either by the end of this year, or—at the very latest—May of 2025." "They will not give up unless and until humanity says no." (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.25 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.9 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.6 +.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Defense Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 90.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour +5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.6 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.2 -28.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) +5.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.87 +.21:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 351.08 +.45: Growth Rate +23.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -1.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve 16.0 basis point (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.3% -1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.27% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.0%(unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 40.2%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +542 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZO)/53.60
• (THO)/1.30
  

After the Close: 

• (KBH)/2.06
• (PRGS)/1.14
• (SFIX)/-.21
• (WOR)/.73
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to -9.3 versus -25.1 in Aug.

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in June.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.42% gain in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 104.0 versus 103.3 in Aug.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to -12 versus -19 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, M2 money supply report for Aug., API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, RBC Industrials Conference and the RBC Communications/Infra Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.9 +5.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 55.5% of Issues Advancing, 42.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 -2.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$205.8M
  
• 195 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 60.5% (+.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.1 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 225.3 -.35%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,744.3 -.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -20.2%
  
• Vix 16.2 unch.
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -9.1%