Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBWI)/.47
• (DSX)/-.01
  

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.41
• (CENT)/-.22
• (LESL)/.11
• (SMTC)/.23
• (ZM)/1.31
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Oct.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to -1.8 versus -3.0 in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2Y T-Note auction, Needham Consumer Tech/Ecommerce conference and the (PAR) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.1 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.7 -2.9 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.8 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.7 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(473 of 500 reporting) +8.2% +1.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.29 +.10:  Growth Rate +12.9% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 22.0 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% +7.6 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.04 +.46: Growth Rate +33.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.3% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.0%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +254 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.0% 2) Social Media -.6% 3) Video Gaming -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NMM, CLSK, ASC, RBLX, ZETA, GOOG, COIN, BIDU, LOMA, WMG, XPOF, MMS, TRMD, PDD, MSTR, ZIM, CPA, EH, KLC and KURA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XME 2) ARCC 3) SNOW 4) EH 5) ROST
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIDU 2) PDD 3) CATO 4) TCS 5) ACHC
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLV 3) IGV 4) VDC 5) KWEB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +4.1% 2) Alt Energy +3.3% 3) Computer Services +3.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SNOW, AOSL, NNE, SAVA, UTI, OKLO, SMCI, LUNR, KD, TDOC, AS, IONQ, MDB, VSTS, RDDT, RSI, TGTX, DFH, LMND, MARA, RKLB, POWL, AI, DE, AMSC, ALAB, BKSY, NET, AAOI, FOUR, SUM, DDOG, CLS, INOD, MEG, DESP, DTM, TAC, ESTC, CFLT, DY, OMCL, AVPT, SPIR, MRUS, GTLB, ICLR, OKTA, GTLB, GLBE, MRUS, BAH, KBR, MANU, ALGM, ET, ICLR, FLEX, WIX, TWLO, ATKR, SAIA, NTAP, NVMI and CE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MSTZ 2) NTAP 3) SNOW 4) JNPR 5) DE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNOW 2) WKSP 3) KD 4) SMCI 5) DFH
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLY 3) XLK 4) XLE 5) GDX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKE)/.89

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 48.9 versus 48.5 in Oct.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Nov. is estimated at 55.0 versus 55.0 in Oct.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 54.3 versus 54.1 in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

•  Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Services Activity for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Bloomberg Nov. US Economic Survey, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, (AVT) annual meeting and the (DCI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST