Sunday, September 14, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge    
  • @CNBC
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @NYPost
  • @MarioNawful
  • U.S. NAVY BASE IN PUERTO RICO SUDDENLY REACTIVATED. Something big is happening in Puerto Rico, and most people haven’t noticed. An old U.S. Navy base that shut down back in 2004 is suddenly coming back to life. It used to be called Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, and now, it's full of activity again. Over the past week, hundreds of U.S. service members and military equipment have been moved there.
  • PRINCE ANDREW COULD BE “DESTROYED” BY 100+ EPSTEIN EMAILS. Congress is sitting on over 100 secret emails between Andrew and Epstein - and sources say they’re “embarrassing and incriminating.” “If you thought Mandelson’s fall was bad,” one insider said, “just wait.”
  • TURNING POINT EXPLODES AFTER ERIKA’S SPEECH: 18,000 NEW CHAPTERS. After the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk, his wife Erika stepped up to the mic for the first time, and the response has been massive. Turning Point USA (TPUSA), the organization Charlie founded, said it has already received 18,000 new requests to start chapters at high schools and colleges across the country since Erika’s emotional speech. Before the speech, TPUSA had around 9,000 college chapters and 1,100 high school ones. Now, it’s nearly tripled overnight. 
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @GenFlynn
  • The Globalists Killed Charlie Kirk & they have names, see below. Charlie Kirk’s death was a result of years of globalist de-humanization of conservatives, especially conservative Christians. Globalists hate GOD! These globalist “killers” are responsible for a campaign of de-humanization. For many years now, they demonized all of us with labels like racist, fascist, Nazi, far-right, or anti-this & anti-that, all for no reason other than to cause enough people to hate with such passion they were/are willing to resort to the most heinous of actions…such as murder or other demonic acts of power.
  • @ElonMusk 
  • Multiple trans people in the area posted on September 9th that "something big will be happening to Charlie Kirk tomorrow". Terrorist cell.
  • FEMA SECTION CHIEF: Charlie Kirk "Kind of Deserved It" — O'Keefe Media Records Top Official at Federal Agency Laughing About Assassination of Conservative Commentator. FEMA execs cheered Charlie’s murder (video)
  • @I_Am_JohnCullen
  • @Anc_Aesthetics
  • @TheBritishIntel
  • @LizCrokin
  • @MalleusIg
  • @disclosetv
  • @HealthRanger
  • @TonySeruga
  • @KariLake
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @JonnyRoot_
  • @AFpost
  • @QuantumAlteredX
  • @darren_dazmav80
  • @_MLFootball
  • @StockSavvyShay
  • @MalleusIg
  • @Unusual_whales
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 38.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.7 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.06% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful
  • TUCKER CARLSON: CHARLIE KIRK BEGGED TRUMP NOT TO GO TO WAR WITH IRAN. "Charlie went to the Oval Office and said 'I understand Iran is dangerous. But a war with Iran could truly hurt our country'. That was an unpopular position. He did not need to express it. But he did. He had no hidden agenda. He was not mad at anyone. He stood for his country and for doing the right and wise thing. He took massive abuse from his own donors. It was not hostile. They simply had a different view and made it clear.
  • NETANYAHU: CLAIMS ISRAEL KILLED CHARLIE KIRK ARE ABSURD AND INSANE. "That's insane. That's insane. Israel also changes the orbit of the moon. Israel pushes the sun. I mean, the whole thing is not only insane, it's so absurd, so stupid, so ridiculous you can't believe people are saying this. They just found the perpetrator. They'll get to the bottom of this. But when you hate Jews, when you hate the Jewish state, you're willing to say anything and promote these absurd rumors." (video)
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (MP) and (TWLO).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @CNBC
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @Worldsource24
  • @realstewpeters
  • @TeaSweet11386
  • @Iansmithfitness
  • People get upset for not accepting the official government narrative of Kirk’s death - as if questioning a government that has done nothing but lie is somehow disrespectful. If anything, blindly accepting the cute gift-wrapped narrative is. Charlie was a man who encouraged questioning. Let’s walk through some of the contradictions and questions.... (list)
  • @RyanMattaMedia
  • @iAnonPatriot 
  • @SenseReceptor  
  • @Bannons_WarRoom
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @HealthRanger
  • @MJTruthUltra 
  • @cxb_doge
  • @MyLordBebo
  • @I_Am_JohnCullen 
  • @ImMeme0
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @gc22gc
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @TPV_John
  • @ScottPresler
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @wallstengine
  • @GSBG01
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, September 12, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,597.0 +1.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 45,927.0 +1.2%
  • NASDAQ 22,177.9 +2.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,407.2 +.6%
  • NYSE FANG+ 16,015.0 +1.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 228.7 +3.5%
  • Wilshire 5000 65,352.0 +1.7%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,636.4 +2.6%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,993.3 +.7%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 891.01 unch.
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 255.6 +.1%
  • NYSE Technology 6,787.5 +5.1%
  • Transports 15,696.9 -.1%
  • Utilities 1,102.6 +2.1%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 98.7 +4.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 52.2 +3.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 238.75 +.47%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.5 +.24%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 579,961 +.92%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +123.8%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 2,114 +1,554
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.9 +2.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,428 -6.4%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,987,861 +3.94%
  • Total Put/Call .79 +8.3%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.22 -4.4%
  • ISE Sentiment 169.0 +11.0
  • NYSE Arms .72 -44.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.4 +4.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +8.0 basis points 
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -4.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .21 -84.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.5 -14.7%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.7 -4.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 -2.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 23,031.5 +2.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  86.1 +5.5
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.303 Trillion +.6%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$2.706 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 28.0 -14.4%
  • AAII % Bears 49.5 +14.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +3.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 300.3 -.01%
  • Crude Oil 62.62/bbl. +1.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 198.42 +.99%
  • Natural Gas 2.94 -2.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  • Heating Oil 228.99 -.05% 
  • Newcastle Coal 100.7 (1,000/metric ton) -7.0%
  • Gold 3,649.0 +1.7%
  • Silver 42.3 +3.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 474.2 +2.0%
  • Copper 465.5 +2.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 337.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,900.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
  • CME Lumber  587.0 +.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,393.9 +1.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% +.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1 -2.9 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.24 +2.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 353.0 -28.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -17.2%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $206.0 Billion($1,279.50 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$1.0 Billion
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.15 +1.9:  Growth Rate +11.5% +.7 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% +.5 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.62 +8.75: Growth Rate +18.8% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 32.9 +.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -8.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.5 -.4 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 92.5%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 9/17
  • US Dollar Index 97.61 -.15%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,842.7 +.33%
  • Bitcoin/USD 116,202.0 +4.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.6 +.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.2%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 50.5 -7.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.06% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.558 Trillion +.06%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.777 Billion +1.9%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.0 -.1%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 195.6 -1.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 81.0 -3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.7 -1.7%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.1 -7.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.8 -3.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.3 +2.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.7 -6.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.6 +.3%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.8% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% +30.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% -10.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.0% +5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.0% +16.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -36.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.25 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.25 +.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.9 -4.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 200.0 -1.6
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 221.0 +22.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.9 -6.7%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 120.5 -4.6%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.2 -2.9%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 589.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,400.8B -.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 240,500 +4.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.4 -1.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.54% -5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 297,700 +9.3%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.6% +50.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +6.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $92.0M -10.2%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,111.0 +6.7%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,043.6/40 ft Box -2.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,125.3 -2.1%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 +35.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 63.9 +3.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 253,497 -11.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,610,879 +35.8% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% unch.
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Disk Drives +10.7%
  • AI/Innovation +5.6%
  • Education +4.9%
  • Computer Hardware +4.9%
  • Gold & Silver +4.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Restaurants -1.8%
  • Foods -1.8%
  • Medical Equipment -1.9%
  • Homebuilding -2.3%
  • Gambling -3.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (33)
  • IONQ, QSG, WBD, RGTI, BTDR, KMTS, AMRK, DFDV, SERV, BKSY, RKLB, QBTS, QUBT, TSLA, DAKT, BMNR, INOD, CIFR, CENX, PGY, APLD, MARA, BILI, PSKY, MU, EH, JMIA, AA, SMCI, SLG, CAMT and JOBY
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • PFE, SNPS, DKNG, LULU, RH, RBRK, KALV, BMA, SLNO, TARS, RIVN, FERG, MRNA and BNTX
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Cut Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -183 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (HAIN)/.03
After the Close: 
  • (PLAY)/.91
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to fall to 4.5 versus 11.9 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BofA Financials CEO Conference, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference and the RBC Industrials Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST