Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @Anc_Aesthetics
  • @RenzTom
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @DC_Draino
  • @Saul_Sadka
  • @iBankCoin4tw
  • @TonySeruga
  • @ABridgen
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @RepNancyMace
  • @MrSausageGet
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.05 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 92.5 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.38% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build Out Worries, Rising US/Venezuela Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.01 -.20%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.15% unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.62% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.9 -5.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.5 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +22.1% -19.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.42 +.10:  Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 21.9 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 516.92 +.29: Growth Rate +25.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.2 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 66.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.3% +.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 46.0% (unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.8%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -390 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -86 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -3.8% 2) Nuclear -3.3% 3) AI/Innovation -3.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PDD, CLS, ETN, PVLA, LOGI, AVGO, ORCL, HPP, TLRY, ARM, NRG, VOR, MOD, NVT, NKTR, GEV, EVCM, IMNM and HNRG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AVTR 2) ABR 3) EQNR 4) VTGN 5) GTM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LEN 2) AVGO 3) CAT 4) BYND 5) CVAC
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XBI 4) XLP 5) ARKK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.1% 2) Restaurants +1.0% 3) Oil Service +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DBVT, TWO, KOD, HYMC, HUT, TTC, AERO, AXGN, NRDS, VIA, QURE, SGML, CBRL, CLW, SQM, PI, BRZE, LENZ, ABM, NTNX, DXYZ, MSI, STAA, DRI, STAA, BWLP, BROS and OMCL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VLY 2) URNM 3) XHB 4) BIRK 5) ES 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MDLN 2) NTNX 3) UDMY 4) ICCM 5) RDDT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) GDX 3) XLI 4) IGF 5) IBB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BIRK)/.36
  • (KMX)/.33
  • (CTAS)/1.20
  • (DRI)/2.10
  • (FDS)/4.36 
  • (ACN)/3.74 
After the Close: 
  • (BB)/.04
  • (FDX)/4.12
  • (HEI)/1.22
  • (KBH)/1.79
  • (AVO)/.23
  • (NKE)/.37 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 225K versus 236K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1922K versus 1838K prior.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Nov.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Dec. is estimated to rise to 2.3 versus -1.7 in Nov.
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to fall to 6.0 versus 8.0 in Nov.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB Meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report and the (FDS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 +.2
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 46.9% of Issues Advancing, 50.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .82 -35.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$94.9M
  • 51 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 62.7% (+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 53.7 -2.7
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 28.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 35.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 33.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 93.5 +.1%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 442.0 +1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.2 -.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 156.6 -1.24%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (Moved to FEAR from NEUTRAL) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.8 +15.2%
  • Vix 17.1 +3.8%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +3.2%