Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (EMBJ)/.78

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.3% versus unch. in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Jan. is estimated unch. versus unch. in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Dec.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Feb. is estimated to fall to 55K versus 130K in Jan.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• The Unemployment Rate for Feb. is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Jan. is estimated to fall to $12.65B versus $24.045B in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +.2
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 20.7% of Issues Advancing, 78.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .79 -29.5%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$526.9M
  
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 61.2% (-4.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.3 -8.7

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 92.0% +5.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 30.0% -10.0 percentage points
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31st? 77.0% -4.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 97.1 -.7%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 529.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.63 +.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.71 +.13%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (FEAR) -6.0
• 1-Day Vix 21.0 +12.5%
  
• Vix 25.0 +18.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 +2.3%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 -1.75 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%. 
• Gold 5,192.0 USD/t oz. +1.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.84 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.84 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.0 +1.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.11% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.41% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.5 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminished Credit Angst, Crypto Bounce, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.9 -3.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.6 +.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .15 +10.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.4 -3.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 134.0 -3.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 82.8 -7.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.0 +4.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.0 +8.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(488 of 500 reporting) +13.1% +n/a percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 322.61 +n/a:  Growth Rate +16.2% +n/a percentage points, P/E 21.3 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.75% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +28.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 514.27 +n/a: Growth Rate +29.3% +n/a, P/E 28.9 +n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.1 +1.9% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.8% -.6 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.05 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 66.2%(+10.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,400 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.7% 2) Foods -.7% 3) Electric Vehicles -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AA, BF/B, AVTX, VG, FWONK, NN, STRA, ANF, COHR, MRX, DY, ALMU, RIGL, GTLB, AXTI, WBTN, TPB, DAKT and BATL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PPL 2) VISN 3) AEO 4) GTLB 5) SGML

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CSTE 2) CF 3) EYPT 4) FRMI 5) OXY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) PSI 3) XLV 4) XLC 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation +2.9% 2) Software +2.4% 3) Alt Energy +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BW, NPT, DAWN, ALOY, ACEL, ANAB, COIN, GLXY, SSRM, DNTH, RYAM, PBF, NBIS, WIX, STVN, EYE, MSTR, BOX, FTK, BKKT, BMNR, SRAD, AMPX, CRDO, SHEN, PARR, HOOD, ROST, INGM, BRCB, SKM, APP, FA, INNV, AFRM, KALV, AUPH, ASTH, BETA, FIGR, INNV, ZM, RIOT, ROIV, STNE, INTA, AMD, SMCI, LYB, SNDK, PAGS, SRRK, SGHC, ETOR, BBVA, M, VIA, DINO, ERII, AGX, CLMT, ELE, SAN, PAR, MBUU, APGE, PLTR, RUN, CECO, ALAB, CRCL, GPGI, VNET, HOG, MPC, HNGE, MBUU, LASR, MEOH, MITK, BCAX, SLG, BILI, SPOT, SUNB, KLAR, DEI, TSLA, SGRY, SBS, EEFT, CSTM, BSAC, TSLX, XYZ, FLYW, WD, CRWD and DV

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ETN 2) PBF 3) INV 4) SABR 5) BW 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EOLS 2) ACEL 3) SWIM 4) DAWN 5) ANAB

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) KRE 3) XLP 4) XLU 5) COPX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume