BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday, March 16, 2026

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:57 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Coal -1.2% 2) Cybersecurity -.8% 3) Gambling -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

AZTA, FA, TECH, TGLS, BBW, HNRG, MOS, KLAR, VITL, KYIV, APEI, WBI, CF, NTR, NNE, VG, OMF, ALOY, IPI, UMAC, TXG, VIA and BETR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CARR 2) LW 3) PAYC 4) AMKR 5) TMC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) OMF 2) ZBIO 3) INO 4) WBI 5) CWH

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) XLK 2) XLC 3) GDX 4) SMH 5) OIH

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:35 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

1) AI/Innovation +3.2% 2) Semis +2.6% 3) Networking +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

NSA, BIOA, UAMY, NBIS, FPS, BMNR, ASST, WULF, OLMA, TSEM, WOLF, CPNG, WOLF, LASR, SYRE, ANRO, CRCL, DOCN, ATRO, SNDK, AEHR, AKTS, FTAI, IREN, GRPN, GPCR, GNK, NESR, DSGN, NVTS, TME, VICR, DLTR, FG, EMBJ, PSIX, LIND, LI, COGT, SEDG, AMPH, BWXT, MU, BWLP, COIN, NTRA, LBRX, ERIC, SMTC, BBWI, GLNG, ACAD, AXGN, FRO, COCO, SMA, GLXY, ELE, SSL, GFI, KSPI, ESTC, ELPC, INGM, CDRE, NAMS, SYK, ABX, INR, ADTN, SLDE and VIST

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ORBS 2) MVST 3) PAYC 4) CTMX 5) TEVA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) NBIS 2) DSGR 3) LBRA 4) BCRX 5) FPS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) IDEF 2) XLF 3) BAI 4) XLU 5) SHLD

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 1:57 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ASO)/2.05
(GDS)/-.26
(TME)/1.53
(HQY)/.90

After the Close:

(DOCU)/.95
(LULU)/4.78
(OKLO)/-.17
(ZTO)/3.14

Economic Release

8:15 am EST

The ADP Weekly Employment Change.

8:30 am EST

The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for March.

10:00 am EST

Pending Home Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.8% decline in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Evans speaking, 20Y T-Bond auction, API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, JPMorgan Industrials Conference, KeyBanc Healthcare Forum, BofA Industrials Conference, (TTC) annual meeting, (AFRM) investor meeting and the BNP Paribas Transforming Industrials/Materials/Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:41 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -5.7% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.0 +2.0
0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
79.9% of Issues Advancing, 18.4% Declining
TRIN/Arms .90 +32.4%
Non-Block Money Flow +$248.9M
47 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
51.1% (+5.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 36.6 +4.1

Polymarket:

How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 46.0% unch.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% unch.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 51.0% -9.0 percentage points

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.2 +2.5%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 93.0 -5.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 535.75 -8.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.8 +.6%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.6 +.8%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 24.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +5.0
1-Day Vix 14.2 -52.9%
Vix 23.7 -12.7%
Total Put/Call .93 +5.7%

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:04 PM

Around X:

@Business

President Donald Trump said he is “demanding” that other countries contribute to the defense of Strait of Hormuz as it remains effectively closed to oil tankers.
Donald Trump said he could delay his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing doesn’t help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported, citing an interview with the US president.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled the war with Iran may last several more weeks as the US and Israel seek to destroy Iranian military capabilities.
Iran is waging an economic war to try and survive US and Israel attacks. Global consumers will pay the price.
- Dubai temporarily suspends flights at its international airport. - Trump is “demanding” other countries help secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz. - Brent crude rises following earlier US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island.
The top executives of 10 US airlines and aviation companies asked Congress to end the government shutdown that is affecting passengers.
The US Treasury market has erased all its gains for the year as the war-driven surge in oil prices sets investors panicking about both inflation and growth risks.
A metal used in weapons and semiconductors finds itself the subject of geopolitical tensions as Chinese export limits and rising military demand squeeze supplies, sending prices to record highs.
Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
Here's what you need to know to start your day.

@Zerohedge

What a crazy night in Tehran. Footage was received from Tehransar county few minutes ago.
At least 30 explosions reported in Tehran within the last hour. US and Israel are going all in.
*TRUMP: CUBA ALSO WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL. *TRUMP: SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN WITH CUBA PRETTY QUICKLY.
Slow Progress Pushes Trump Admin To Talk With Westinghouse Rivals.
*TRUMP ON IRAN: DONT THINK THEY'RE READY TO NEGOTIATE. *TRUMP: JUST LEFT ONE LITTLE AREA STANDING ON KHARG ISLAND.
Now They Are Actually Admitting That There Is A Massive "Gravity Hole" Underneath Antarctica?
*TRUMP SAYS EXPECTING CHINA TO HELP UNBLOCK HORMUZ: FT.
"It Still Makes Sense To Hedge" Warns Top Goldman Sachs Trader.
*TRUMP SAYS COULD DELAY SUMMIT WITH CHINA’S XI: FT.
China Open to Buying More US Agricultural Goods, Reuters Says.
After One Of The Largest Deleveraging Events Ever; Goldman Sees Week Ahead As 'Crucial' For Rates Market.
*US PLANS TO ANNOUNCE COALITION TO ESCORT SHIPS THRU HORMUZ: WSJ. *US PLANS HORMUZ COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT AS SOON AS THIS WEEK: WSJ. *US STILL DISCUSSING WHEN OPERATIONS WOULD BEGIN: WSJ.
Bessent Leads Trade Talks With China In Paris Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit.
Energy Secretary Directs Oil Company To Resume Operations In California, Citing National Security.
*IRAN WARNS RESIDENTS IN PARTS OF DUBAI, DOHA TO LEAVE: FARS. *IRAN:AREAS IN DUBAI, DOHA W/ US FORCES MAY BE HIT IN COMING HRS.
IDF DEFERIN ADDED THAT STRIKES ON IRAN'S BASIJ AND SECURITY FORCES WILL CONTINUE AND INTENSIFY, WHILE THE FUTURE OF IRAN ULTIMATELY RESTS IN THE HANDS OF ITS PEOPLE. - SOURCES.
Trump Administration Set To Receive $10 Billion Fee From TikTok U.S. Deal.
It's Not 2008: Morgan Stanley Counters Why Private Credit Risks Are Not Systemic
.
IRAN SAYS IT ARRESTED 500 PEOPLE ACCUSED OF SPYING FOR ENEMY. IRAN'S TASNIM CITES POLICE CHIEF AHMAD-REZA RADAN ON ARRESTS
.
Companies Are Starting To Enforce AI Use. Is That A Good Or Bad Thing
?
Anduril Lands $20 Billion Pentagon Contract For "Modern Battlefield" Hardware.
Reports of strikes on IRGC headquarters in Hamedan, Iran now.
Trump 'Not Ready' For Iran Deal; US Urges Citizens To Flee Iraq, Israel Reportedly 'Critically Low' On Interceptors.
“We welcome any regional initiative that leads to a fair end to the war,” Iran FM Abbas Araghchi told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, in a rare sign of a possible shift in stance from Iran, where officials have previously said they could sustain the conflict for months. "Ending the war is conditional on guarantees that it won’t be repeated and on the payment of compensation." Araghchi also said the strait was only shut to US ships and those of its allies.
*ARAGHCHI TO CBS: IRAN NEVER ASKED FOR CEASEFIRE OR NEGOTIATION. *ARAGHCHI: OPEN TO NATIONS WANTING TO DISCUSS SAFE HORMUZ PASSAGE. *ARAGHCHI: WE ARE READY TO DEFEND OURSELVES AS LONG AS IT TAKES.
*HASSETT: TRUMP TO CALL END TO WAR IF IRAN UNABLE TO 'BLACKMAIL'. *HASSETT: TOLD $12B SPENT ON IRAN WAR SO FAR.
Tucker Carlson Claims CIA Trying To Frame Him For FARA Violation; Loomer Celebrates.
Hormuz Chokepoint Claims Next Victim: World's Largest Aluminum Smelter Cuts Capacity.
"New Era" Begins In Venezuela As U.S. Flag Is Raised At Embassy For First Time In Years.
War, Oil And Debt: Which Threats To The US Economy Are Legit?
Over 3 Million Iranians Forcibly Displaced Under US-Israeli Bombardment.
Jet Fuel Prices Soar As War In Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation.
Iran War Exposes America's Unfixed Supply Chains.

@CNBC

Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as oil tops $100 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
Stock futures fall slightly as U.S. oil rises above $100 with S&P 500 on 3-week losing streak: Live updates.
U.S. oil prices top $100 as Trump administration threatens strikes on Iran's crude export facilities.
Global week ahead: Price pressure in the pipeline.
Restaurant stocks are struggling to start 2026. Where to find buying opportunities.

@MarioNawful

The Phantom MK1 is the first US humanoid robot built explicitly for combat. $150k per unit. Ballistic armor. Stealth coating that hides it from thermal sensors. Can carry 20kg of weapons or equipment. Reports claim two units are already being tested on the frontlines in Ukraine. War is about to look very different... (video)
80+ container ships were Gulf-bound before the war. Now they're diverting to Indian Ocean ports and congestion is building fast. The global supply chain is rerouting in real time, and every day it continues, the harder it is to undo.
Iranian-backed militia just used an FPV drone to strike Victory Base near Baghdad International Airport. First time this tech has been used in Iraq. Cheap, precise, and nearly impossible to stop. This changes the threat landscape completely. (video)
BREAKING: Satellite images of the Middle East are reportedly disappearing. Planet Labs, the world's largest commercial satellite fleet, just imposed a 2-week blackout on high-resolution imagery of the entire Middle East. Iran. Gulf states. Allied bases. All of it. Gone. Two weeks covers the entire war to date. This matters more than it sounds. For the past decade, commercial satellite imagery was how journalists, researchers, and citizens pierced the fog of war. It's how we knew Russian troops were massing before Ukraine. How we tracked damage at Aramco. How independent analysts counted craters at Dimona. That era just ended. Quietly. With a policy change on a usual day. When governments control the cameras, they control the story. You're no longer watching a war... you're watching their press release.
Sirens wailing across Bahrain as residents report explosions and interceptions over Manama. Sixteen days straight and the people of Bahrain still can't sleep through the night. (audio)

@WallStreetMav

The vote being setup in the Senate is designed to make us shutup and stop bothering them. The vote is designed to require 60 votes and fail. They won't force Senators to stay and debate. They can go home evenings and weekends. When the designated time runs out, they will have their "vote" to end debate and it won't get 60 votes. Then the Senators will say, "we tried" and hope we will stop bothering them. (video)

@OcrazioCornPop

SENATE BETRAYAL: GOP Majority under Thune is barely working this month while blocking Trump's recess appointments with sham pro forma sessions. In the 30 days after March 14, only 10 real workdays. Then recess March 30 – April 10, that's 12 straight days off plus weekends = ~2 weeks. During this long break they still run brief pro forma sessions every 3-4 days to keep the Senate technically "in session" and STOP Trump from using his constitutional recess appointment power for stalled nominees & judges. Zero Trump recess picks confirmed since this tactic ramped up in 2025. This is GOP sabotage of America First - ignoring the mandate while nominees rot. Call @LeaderJohnThune (202-224-2321). SHOULD @realDonaldTrump DEMAND NEW SENATE LEADERSHIP?

@WideAwake_Media

The United Nations wants you to forget that Ghislaine Maxwell was invited to speak as an "expert" at the UN on multiple occasions.

@Real_RobN

The Squad, There is nothing more dangerous than a Democrat calling itself a Republican. By the way, every single one of them supported the terrorist organization BLM in some shape or form. (pic)

@RenzTom

Congress—the most magical place on earth for sexual abusers. The US Congress is the only place in the world where you can sexually abuse men, women, and children, then legally cover it up while getting taxpayers to foot the bill. (video)

@BGatesIsaPsycho

Epstein email to Rothschild. “I’m visiting Zelensky this Thursday” “Epstein visited Zelensky multiple times and discussed how to overthrow Putin in Russia”. (video)

@peruvian_bull

Institutions most exposed to Private Credit. Wells Fargo is going to take a hit...

@officer_Lew

BREAKING: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna calls on House Republicans to PRIMARY Senate Republicans who refuse a talking filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act.

@JasonBassler1

You've heard of Palantir, what about Blueskeye AI? It’s a biometric-monitoring company and a likely contender for the 2027 vehicle monitoring mandate. Blueskeye AI specializes in: -Eye‑tracking. -Facial expression analysis. -Head‑position monitoring. -Drowsiness & distraction detection. -Behavioral pattern analysis using face + voice. The law requires the technology but doesn’t say which company has to provide it. This is the exact kind of “quiet infrastructure” that fuels surveillance creep: -No opt‑out. -Private vendor. -No public vote. -Biometric data collection normalized as “safety”. -Can be repurposed for control or behavioral scoring. Their tech could sit in millions of cars, tracking drivers while the company itself stays invisible to the public.

@Jihooncrypto

SOCIETY ISN'T COLLAPSING. IT'S BEING PUT TO SLEEP. AND YOU'RE WATCHING IT HAPPEN FROM YOUR COUCH. This isn't the fall of civilization. Falls are loud. Falls are violent. You'd notice a fall. This is something worse. This is the quiet, intentional pacification of the human spirit. Let that sink in. You're not tired — you're SEDATED. You're not informed — you're OVERSTIMULATED. You're not relaxing — you're NUMBED. You're not connected — you're ALGORITHMICALLY CONDITIONED. The outrage cycle. The endless scroll. The dopamine drip that never satisfies but never lets go. Average screen time: 7 hours a day — that's 106 DAYS per year staring at a screen. Attention span has dropped below 8 seconds — a goldfish holds focus longer 1 in 4 adults is on antidepressants — the most medicated generation in HUMAN HISTORY. Testosterone levels in men have dropped 50% since the 1980s. They're showing you "self-care" and "mental health awareness." They're NOT showing you that a comfortable population is a CONTROLLABLE population.
NO NAVY ON EARTH CAN FORCE OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HERE'S WHY. The U.S. and its allies are talking about sending warships to reopen Hormuz. It sounds powerful. It sounds decisive. It won't work.

@redpillb0t

Epstein Files: A warning to a reporter that he will be murdered if he doesn’t stop investigating Jeffery Epstein. It's followed by 24 pages that are all fully redacted. (pic)

@allenanalysis

THIS IS NOT GOOD: Reportedly, A factory in China is mass-producing Shahed drones for Iran and Russia. Let that land. The drone that costs $20,000 and forces America to fire a $4 million Patriot missile in response. The drone that struck a building in Bahrain housing Americans. The drone that has been launched in 44 waves against Israel and the Gulf neighbors. The drone is killing Ukrainian children tonight while the world watches Iran. Made in China. Beijing told the world it was neutral. Beijing is the supply chain for every adversary America is fighting simultaneously. (video)

@theGAnerds_Real

State of the union @GabrielSterling is running for SoS and @GaSecofState is running for Governor @Georgia_AG is running for Governor as well as @GaLtGov (Burt)and
@GoochForGeorgia is running for Lt Gov and they ALL KNOW and are SILENT on GA election fraud. Tim Fleming is running for SoS and thinks GA elections are fine. Kelvin King, running for SoS, doesn’t want to change the machines until after 2029…… It is a very sickening state of affairs. Buckle up.

@KevinMoncla

GEORGIA IS PLANNING TO DO IT AGAIN. THE GEORGIA TWO-STEP. The Georgia legislature is expecting to amend existing law (SB 189 (2024)) which requires the QR code to be removed from the ballot by July of 2026 and extend the deadline to 2027-ish. A classic "bait and switch". They passed it in early 2024 to take effect in 2026- which preserved its use for 2024, and now they're trying to do it again. This would preserve the 2020 status quo for 2026 - despite the very reasons they passed the law to remove it, and even while the DOJ is investigating criminal acts of election fraud that exploited some of those very vulnerabilities...

@FearlessGenXer

I’m so sick of these chemtrails. Can’t go one day, certainly not one full week, of clear blue skies and bright yellow sun. WE DO NOT AUTHORIZE OR CONSENT to this - why is it so difficult to MAKE IT STOP?! (video)

@HustleBitch_

WOMAN ASKS THE INTERNET: “WHY DOES NOBODY WANT TO LEAVE THE HOUSE ANYMORE?” — AND THE FLOODGATES BURST OPEN. A mom posted a video asking something that’s been bothering her. Why does nobody want to go out anymore? Not for work. Not for fun. Not even for simple things. She says unless it’s a trip somewhere, she just doesn’t feel like leaving the house at all. Then the floodgates opened. People started admitting they feel the exact same way. Some of the replies: (video)

@GenFlynn

This President(JFK) gave his life for reasons we now know and those reasons have only grown worse. Something has to give otherwise, the WH isn’t running the nation, instead a dark, covert group are running our homeland and foreign policy. (video)

@ValerieAnne1970

WEF World Economic Forum Dr. Matthew Liao: We can induce 'meat allergy' by using Lone Star Ticks to stop the consumption of meat and “help the planet.” (video)

@GeneralMCNews

BREAKING: Multiple journalists from Israel are saying that Tucker Carlson, an American, should be arrested for treason immediately.

@Clashreport

US tech billionaire Peter Thiel is holding secret lectures in Rome about the antichrist and technology, in tension with Pope Leo XIV, who warns about AI risks. Thiel says AI regulation could enable a global authoritarian system that halts scientific progress, while the Pope argues regulation is needed to manage AI’s dangers. The private talks, organised by a conservative Catholic group linked to the far right, have been criticised by Vatican figures and Catholic media.

@Electroversenet

Europe's official grid authority has released its report on the nationwide blackout that hit Spain last year. And while the report treads carefully politically, its data make the cause clear. Wind and solar triggered the collapse. Within the first 80 seconds, Spain lost 2.5 GW of generation, around 10% of its national supply, with every MW of that early loss coming from renewables. Gas and hydro remained stable until the cascade was already underway. (video)

@BobEUnlimited

The oil curve is now pricing in a far more extended oil shock than what we saw in '22. Dec contracts now pricing oil 40% higher to end '26 relative to the 60 bucks to start the year. (table)

@LeadingReport

BREAKING: Federal judges keep disqualifying Trump prosecutors, sparking concerns about judicial overreach.

Night Trading

Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 +1.0 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 48.0 +.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 107.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%.
Crude Oil 98.77/bbl. +.1%
Gold 5,021.1 USD/t oz. -.8%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 -.12%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.48 +.06%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.3 -.5%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.26% -2.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.54% +1.0 basis point.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.5 -1.2%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
S&P 500 futures +.41%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.41%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Top Menu