Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Week Ahead by TheStreet. 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, tax reform hopes and mostly positive earnings outlooks offset technical selling, profit-taking and geopolitical concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Hamburg Attack Puts Merkel Refugee Policy Back in Spotlight. An attack in the northern city of Hamburg thrust Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policy into the spotlight less than two months before Germany goes to the polls. Police were aware that the man suspected of a stabbing spree on Friday had shown of signs Islamic radicalization, Hamburg’s interior minister, Andy Grote, said in a press conference on Saturday. The attack in a supermarket in the Barmbek district left one man dead and six injured before bystanders overpowered the attacker. The 26-year-old suspect is a Palestinian citizen whose request for refugee status had been declined. He had been ordered out of the country but lacked the necessary documents to travel, Grote said, adding that a few hours before the attack the man had inquired whether his documents were ready. The suspect, who had shown signs of mental instability, is now in police custody.

• Australia Foils Plot to ‘Bring Down’ Plane, Prime Minister Says. Australian counter-terrorism agencies have foiled a plot to “bring down” a plane in a terrorist attack, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says. Four men were arrested on Saturday night by counter-terrorism officers in raids on four Sydney properties over an alleged plot to blow up an aircraft.

• U.K. Seeks Smoother Brexit to Keep ‘Life as Normal’ for Longer. (video) Prime Minister Theresa May is keeping Britain on track for a “hard” Brexit, but she wants the journey away from the European Union to be longer and smoother than initially planned. After weeks of wrangling since her Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority, May’s government still seems determined to leave the single market and customs union that give Britain free, frictionless trade with the bloc. What’s changed is that, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, there’s now a consensus among senior ministers that even if the U.K. will departs the EU in March 2019, nothing should change the next day. Instead, the cabinet wants the status quo to run for two or three years.

• Top German Automakers Sued in U.S. Over Two-Decade ‘Cartel’. German’s major automakers were accused in a U.S. lawsuit of acting as a cartel, colluding for nearly two decades to limit the pace of technological advances in their vehicles and stifle competition -- allegations that widen the scope of the latest scandal to hit the nation’s auto industry. BMW AG, Daimler AG, Volkswagen AG and its Audi and Porsche brands shared competitive information about vehicle technologies with one another from 1996 through at least 2015 in violation of antitrust laws, according to a complaint filed Friday in San Francisco federal court.

• OPEC, Non-OPEC Nations to Meet on Compliance With Oil Targets. Representatives of some OPEC and non-OPEC nations will meet in Abu Dhabi as soon as next week to discuss why some of them are falling behind in their pledges to cut production, people familiar with the matter said. The meeting, co-chaired by Kuwait and Russia, will examine reasons why some countries aren’t fully implementing their cuts, the people said. Some nations will argue that the independent sources used by OPEC to assess compliance overestimate their production, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump to Sign Russia Sanctions Bill. Measure includes provision to prevent president from removing sanctions without Congress’s consent.

• Donald Trump Threatens to Cancel Some Health-Care Benefits for Lawmakers. In tweet, president also targets insurance company payments.

• The Republican ObamaCare Crack Up. The party had a historic chance to act in the public interest. It failed.

• Tesla(TSLA) Model 3 Test Drive: Car Has Bite and Simple Interior. The $35,000 sedan has bare-bones interior, with a 15-inch video screen to control most functions. 

• Sprint(S) Proposes Merger With Charter Communications(CHTR). Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Son seeks to create media and communications giant controlled by SoftBank.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (C), (AAP), (COG) and (HON).

• Had bearish commentary on (TWTR), (AMZN) and (GOOGL).

CNBC:

• As Tesla(TSLA) goes mainstream, luxury carmakers plan rivals.

• 'The RV space is on fire': Millennials expected to push sales to record highs.

• There are no ‘expiration dates’ on bull markets - a new S&P 500 target really is just days away, says Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus. (video)

• Bucks from bricks: These retailers make the most money per square foot on their real estate.

• SoftBank is plowing billions into tech companies: Here's a list of investments so far.

• Treasury Secretary Mnuchin extends measure to hold off debt-limit default.

• GOP senators who blocked Obamacare repeal call for cooperation with Democrats. (video)

• Meet John F. Kelly, Donald Trump's new White House chief of staff.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Fires Priebus, Names Gen. Kelly New Chief Of Staff.

• Kim Jong Un: "The Entire US Territory Is Now Within Our ICBM Range".

• "Senate Republicans Look Like Fools" Trump Urges End To Filibuster, Claims Russia Was Against Him In 2016. 

• Trump Threatens To End Obamacare Payments And "Insurance Bailouts" Unless Repeal Passes.

• Trump Confirms He Will Sign Russia Sanctions Bill.

• Hermitage Capital Founder Testifies That Fusion GPS (Trump Dossier Creator) Worked For Russian Government.

• Gauntlet Thrown: House Judiciary Demands Special Counsel To Investigate Comey, Lynch, And Clinton.

• California Moves One Step Closer To Declaring Independence From US Government.

• Views From The Top Of The Skyscraper Index.

• With LIBOR Dead, $400 Trillion In Assets Are Stuck In Limbo.

• Demographic Dysphoria Looms As Doctors Discover Sperm Counts In Western Men Plummeted Nearly 60%.

• It's Your Money But You Can’t Have It: EU Proposes Account Freezes To Halt Bank Runs.

• Confirmed: NFL Fans Tuned Out Last Year Because Players Protested The National Anthem.

• The Empire Strikes Back: Japan Jacks Up US Beef Import Tariffs To 50%.

• Only 3% Of Germans Think The State Is Reacting Correctly To Extremism.

• House Intel. Chair Accuses Obama Staffers of "Hundreds Of Unmasking Requests".

• Anthony Scaramucci's Wife Has Filed For Divorce.

• Markets, Regulators Ignore Ticking Time Bomb Of Shadow Margin Loans.

• Latest North Korean ICBM Can Reach Los Angeles, Denver, Chicago.

• Weekend Reading: Vacation Head.

• Turmoil In Tech, Trannies, & Tobacco As Dollar Dumps To 2-Year Lows On Dismal Data. (graph)

Business Insider:

• South Korea's president made a move signaling a possible strike on North Korea.

• Apple(AAPL) is reportedly making a huge concession to the Chinese government.

Weekly Scoreboard*

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 

Indices

• S&P 500 2,470.96 -.1%

• DJIA 21,821.80 +1.1%

• NASDAQ 6,371.68 -.18%

• Russell 2000 1,428.22 -.53%

• S&P 500 High Beta 38.17 -.21%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 139.20 +1.36%

• Wilshire 5000 25,585.40 -.12%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,226.10 -.35%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,150.42 +.11%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 568.51 +.14%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3440 -.78%
  

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,526.51 -.74%

• Transports 9,225.45 -2.63%

• Utilities 723.01 -.32%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 102.0 +1.96%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 43.69 +.35%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,215.57 +.36%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.94 +.30%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 298,544 -.03%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 609-176

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 58.5 -9.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 396,459 +10.7%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,140,060 +.30%

• Total Put/Call .80 +8.1%

• OEX Put/Call .56 +16.7%

• ISE Sentiment 99.0 +65.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.39 +.7%

• Volatility(VIX) 10.53 +13.78%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.06 +4.95%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.09 +3.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.52 +.13%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,711.30 +.24%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.640 Trillion +.89%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.327 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 34.5 -2.9%

• AAII % Bears 24.3 -5.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 182.12 +3.09%

• Crude Oil 49.77 +9.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 167.84 +7.85%

• Natural Gas 2.94 -.44%

• Heating Oil 164.21 +8.33%

• Gold 1,269.10 +1.15%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 184.60 +2.94%

• Copper 287.90 +5.75%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 265.67 USD/Ton +.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 65.74 USD/Ton +4.68%

• Lumber 377.40 -2.78%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,091.06  -.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.8 +20.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.8% +20.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1253 -8.27% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 124.86 -4.43%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 138.96 +.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.50 +8.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.1 -10.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.70 +.7 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 84.0% chance of no change, 16.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/20

• US Dollar Index 93.41 -.70%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,622.64 +.27%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.80 +.53%

• Yield Curve 94.0 +4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.29% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.426 Trillion -.26%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.99 +13.2%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 370.0 -.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 4.52 +18.0%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 19.95 -4.36%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.41 -9.45%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.47 +3.06%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 57.10 +.23%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 163.79 +1.49%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 140.50 +.12%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82% +6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 23.5 +8.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 +1.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.50 -1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.85 +1.45%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 433.0 -1.79%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 50.22 +1.69%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 191.34 -.81%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 147.0 +.5 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.487 Trillion -1.35%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 977.8 +.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 244,000 unch.

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.92% +4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 418.50 +.43%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.60 +1.0 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.2% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.30/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 942.0 -3.58%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 874.38 -.34%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,289 +.06%

Best Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Value +.1%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth -.9%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +2.8%

• Energy +2.6%

• Gold & Silver +2.2%

• Retail +1.9%

• Oil Service +.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Tobacco -3.9% 

• Disk Drives -4.5%

• Airlines -5.3%

• Education -7.2%

• Hospitals -8.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• SGMS, PETS, IRBT, DDS, WBMD, IVC, GNC, HCCI, BA, SNC, NTGR, ADP, BCO, CAI, SYRS, FBC, CHCT, BMI, CTAS, RETA, CNCE, CDNS, CLGX and PAH

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (47)

• ASB, AI, MMI, POL, ANAB, MMM, FELE, ABG, ASTE, GOLF, DFRG, HAS, SXT, CSV, CR, FFBC, AAON, IART, ASGN, BWLD, MAN, USNA, TUP, UHS, HSTM, HAYN, AKAM, SANM, WNC, BLMN, HUBG, DPZ, WAB, DXPE, AFAM, IPG, STX, HSII, PCRX, AMED, CPLA, SAVE, HIBB, BPI, TGI, EGRX and TISI

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change