Stocks Lower into Afternoon on AI Industry Disruption Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Rising Credit Angst, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAON)/.45
• (DAVE)/3.31
• (SEE)/.73
• (TPB)/.87 
• (SATS)/-.73
• (LIF)/.26 

After the Close: 

• (AES)/.62
• (ACHR)/-.24
• (ASTS)/-.17
• (CRDO)/.91
• (MDB)/1.48
• (RGR)/.25 

Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.6 in Jan.
• ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 60.8 versus 59.0 in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, Citi Property Conference, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, (DKNG) investor day and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Chinese technology stocks in Hong Kong are poised for their worst month in two years, weighed by weak earnings and a lack of buying by mainland investors.
• Anthropic rejected the Pentagon’s latest offer to defuse a standoff over conditions the company has sought governing the use of the its AI software by the military.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• "I know you are close with Hillary".
• Also, since Epstein's IT manager Jermaine Ruan installed most of his Pedo Island recording devices and now works as a tech guy for, oh... the US Government - can you bring him in for a few questions? 
• US Tariff Rates To Hit 15% Or More For Some Nations Under New Strategy.
• Researchers Identify Chinese Influence Network That Targeted Trump, Japan Elections
  .
• Bohemian Grove Membership List Leaked
  .
• Worlds most aggressive momentum chasers
  .
• Families Receive $1.5 Million After Supreme Court Victory Over LGBT Storytelling
  .
• When people talk about the "Emerging Market meltup", it's really just Korea (Japan's Weimar moment is entertaining too), where EPS are projected to rise 75% in 2026 because of two memory names: Samsung and SK Hynix. In other words, the EM trade is just a bet no DRAM price drop
  .    
• Photo of the day: Hillary under oath says she does not recall meeting Epstein and did not know about his crimes. Email of the day: Epstein arranging a secret meeting with Hillary for the Rothschilds. He writes “meetings with Hillary are not easily discreet. when?“ (pic)
   
• Iran Rushes To Load Oil Onto Ships In Anticipation Of US Strikes
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• Dorsey's Block Fires Nearly Half Of The Company In 'Massive' AI Bet, Sending Shares Soaring
  .
• Tech Bosses To Meet At White House, Pledge Their Data Centers Won't Boost Electricity Bills.
   
• Software Jumps, Momo Slumps, & AI Dumps Most Since 'DeepSeek'; Bonds & Bullion Bid
  .   

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Netflix bows out from Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia markets set to open lower after Wall Street pullback on Nvidia slump.
• Stock futures slide after S&P 500 closes lower; wholesale inflation reading looms: Live updates.
• Netflix is walking away from a deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets after the WBD board on Thursday deemed a revised bid by Paramount Skydance to be superior.   
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Block, Intuit, Dell Technologies & more. 

• @TheTranscript 

• Block CEO on why they're laying off ~4k staff. "The core thesis is simple. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build & run a company. We're already seeing it internally. A significantly smaller team, using the tools we're building, can do more and do it better." (pic)
• Dell CEO: "We closed more than $64 billion in AI-optimized server orders, shipped more than $25 billion throughout the year, and are entering FY27 with record backlog of $43 billion". $DELL: +10% AH. 
• CoreWeave CEO: "Demand continues to intensify as a broader set of customers adopt CoreWeave Cloud to run a diverse and growing set of workloads". CFO: "Our revenue backlog grew to $66.8 billion, more than 4x where we began the year". $CRWV: -11% AH. 

• @Kevinnbass

• BILL GATES'S PUBLIC CLAIMS VERSUS THE DOCUMENTS. Bill Gates and Jeffrey Epstein were not casual acquaintances who had "a few dinners." They were strategic partners. The evidence is overwhelming. I constructed two timelines proving it. In the attached Visit Timeline, I document each meeting, scoring it from 1 to 5, with 1 being planned and 5 being confirmed. Most meetings are confirmed. The size of the bubble indicates the number of documents establishing the existence of the meeting. In the attached Gift Timeline, the size of the bubble indicates the monetary value of the gift or favor.

• @MarioNawful

• Nest: the security cameras of choice for pedophile sex traffickers. Epstein requested the HD cameras be installed on his islands so he could monitor them remotely from anywhere in the world. Because Nest is cloud-based and owned by Google, the footage would have been stored on remote servers Epstein couldn't personally destroy, so where is it? Makes you wonder if those cameras developed “mysterious malfunctions” like the ones in the jail where Epstein allegedly died.
• Hillary Clinton testified under oath today that she never met Jeffrey Epstein. A 2011 email just surfaced of Epstein casually telling someone "Hey Hillary Clinton is much prettier in person." She's still under oath.
• Nancy Mace is forcing a vote to release every sexual misconduct report on members of Congress. She's doing it because a Republican congressman sent explicit texts to a staffer who later died by suicide. He refuses to resign. Congress has a slush fund specifically to pay off harassment victims with taxpayer money. Nobody told you about that part. 
• Someone identified as "C" emails Epstein: "I give you permission to kill him. He lied apparently to you and he lied to me." Epstein forwards the message with one word: "whoops." The reply: "No one will lie to you and get away with it from me. No one. Whoops is correct." The names are redacted. The DOJ knows exactly who sent these emails. 

• @EmeraldRobinson

• JUST IN: World Economic Forum President and CEO Borge Brende resigns after the forum opens investigation into his ties to Jeffery Epstein. Yes, a satanic pedophile gang rules the world. All the conspiracy theories are true.

• @AreOhEssEyeEe

• This is Ghislaine Maxwell's sister, Christine Maxwell. Christine founded a software company called Chiliad that connects FBI, CIA, NSA, etc. computers for data mining. Let that sink in. (pic) 

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Meanwhile in South Carolina. THE DEBATE IS OVER. All those trails you see daily in the sky left by Planes - they are NOT simply water vapour or condensation trails as many people claim. Listen to the Unrefutable science as to why. To all those that have continually called this out - you were right - you were always right and you always knew it. (video)

• @kevinnbass

• THE BILL GATES FILES, V2. A few days ago I dropped 275 documents about Bill Gates from the Epstein Files. I called it "pure dynamite." This version has 7 times more: 1,863 documents. 618 pages. Plus 402 orbit documents on the Boris Nikolic/Kathryn Ruemmler/Melanie Walker network. 2,265 docs total. Melanie Gates called Jeffrey Epstein "evil personified". She had nightmares about him. She cited her husband's relationship with the man as a reason for her divorce. She has said that Gates "has to answer for what's described in the documents."

• @RenzTom

• Did Cloud Seeding Cause the Devastating Floods? Let’s Talk About Cause and Effect. Two days before catastrophic flooding along the Guadalupe Corridor, a cloud seeding operation took place. Then came 16 hours of rain. Surges up to 30 feet above crest. Up to 40 feet in San Antonio. Bodies pulled from the water for weeks. Families still searching for answers. When questions are raised? “You’re a conspiracy theorist.” But here’s the uncomfortable reality: Cloud seeding is designed to make it rain. So when you seed clouds upstream… and it rains… and catastrophic flooding follows… Is it unreasonable to ask whether there’s a connection? (video)
• Breaking - Is THIS why the administration is fighting so hard to protect cancer-causing glyphosate? Bayer Pharmaceuticals has worked with both Ballard Partners and Mercury LLC. Susie Wiles, the President’s Chief of Staff, was a lobbyist for both companies and Pfizer. Pam Bondi was a lobbyist at Ballard Partners. This is profoundly important in understanding why the Administration would take such an unpopular position on an issue so important to MAHA in an election season. Trump’s CoS, Susie Wiles, and Pam Bondi both worked for Ballard Partners; Wiles was a managing partner at Mercury. It appears their lobbying didn’t end when they took their positions with the administration. (pic) 

• @WallStreetApes

• Head of the EPA Lee Zeldin tells Benny Johnson that spraying toxic chemicals into our skies is so unregulated they don’t even have widespread procedures to stop them (INSANE). Lee Zeldin warns against cloud seeding in America. “It has not been studied enough. It hasn't been researched enough. But absolutely nobody out there should take that answer as me advocating for more outdoor experiments. The problem is the concerns are too great — there is a lot of concern over a lack of current authority under current statute to be able to stop these activities”. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• Hillary Clinton doesn't know Epstein, but Bill and Hillary were FREQUENT guests at Epstein's New Mexico "Zorro" ranch after they left The White House. Bill was described as his "closest celebrity mate." The White House visitor logs also revealed 17x trips from Epstein to The White House, including a dozen times in 1994, and 2x in one day on 3x different occasions. Don't forget Epstein being one of the original founders of the Clinton Global Initiative, Bill flying 26x on the Lolita Express, or Maxwell at Chelsea's wedding. I'm sure Hillary never knew Epstein.

• @elonmusk

• A silent filibuster allows a 40-senator minority to block a bill *without even debating*. Literally, they can block a bill by sleeping. Luckily, @LeaderJohnThune can simply require debate (talking filibuster), and eventually the bill will go to a vote and pass. So, if he refuses to do this, he is co-signing defeat. Not just abstract defeat. Defeat of the will of 84% of Americans, and the demise of secure elections. This is unacceptable. There is no greater priority than secure elections. Exactly.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Unbelievable… Iowa Candidate Zach Lahn says Big Agricultural Giants, including Chinese-Owned Syngenta, are causing the Skyrocketing Cancer Rates and Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in the United States. • Syngenta is a wholly owned state enterprise of the Chinese Government — it is a 100% privately held company owned by Sinochem Holdings (also known as Sinochem Group), a massive Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE). • They control roughly 85% of all farm seeds and chemicals in Iowa (down from hundreds of companies decades ago), with Syngenta’s products used on roughly 5 million acres statewide. • Paraquat (originally formulated by Syngenta) is one of the most toxic pesticides on planet earth, and it is still approved by the EPA and used on ~300,000 acres in Iowa. • Exposure to Paraquat doubles the risk of Parkinson and is so potent it is used in laboratories to deliberately induce Parkinson’s in animals. - Iowa now has “the fastest rate of new cancer of anywhere in the history of human civilization,” with the top 10 highest-cancer counties all being rural ag-heavy areas. (video)
• Ex-CIA/NSA Analyst's "Follow the Money" Discusses Suspicious $350K Life Insurance Policy on Charlie Kirk Tied to TPUSA Finances. - Leah (theleahfiles on TikTok), a former career operative at the CIA and NSA who now runs her own corporate intelligence firm says eight days before Kirk's assassination, he announced Justin Strife as new COO and launched an internal due diligence assessment, expressing concerns that the organization was heading in the wrong direction and that he felt "left in the dark." Regarding the financials within TPUSA. (video) 

• @SamaHoole

• California grows 90% of American strawberries. To do it, they fumigate the soil with chloropicrin before every single planting. Not occasionally. Every planting cycle, every year, in 99% of California strawberry fields. Chloropicrin is a soil sterilant. You inject it into the ground to kill everything: fungi, bacteria, nematodes, insects, so the soil is chemically dead before you plant into it. You then grow strawberries in a sterile medium using synthetic inputs, because the natural soil ecosystem that would otherwise support the plant has been eliminated. It was also first used as a chemical weapon in World War One.

• @LaurenWitzkeDE

• Right before 9/11, a small group of investors made large bets that United and American Airlines stocks were about to fall…. One New York hedge fund reportedly bought up about a third of those bets. Federal investigators never publicly released the fund’s name. (thread)

• @JackUnheard

• I’m actually FURIOUS. Days after John Thune said there was “no time” to vote on the SAVE Act, senators held a dog parade in the chamber. They posed for photos with their PETS instead of moving the election bill forward to secure our elections. (video)

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Hillary Clinton ABRUPTLY ended her press conference after being asked why Ghislaine Maxwell was invited to Chelsea Clinton's wedding—even AFTER the conviction—and Virginia Giuffre's suits THOSE probably need to be focused on. They spooked Hillary big time. (video)

• @DataRepublican

• I already generated a dossier on Spanberger, but the most interesting part of it is that she is part of a cohort of 50+ military-intelligence veterans that have been recruited to run as Democratic candidates starting in 2018. @SomeBitchIIKnow first hypothesized this, but my new dossier pipeline independently captured them. A Democrat retires. A CIA member takes over. Spanberger is part of a much deeper, much more disturbing story here.

• @jack_schroder_

• Glyphosate/RoundUp is owned by Monsanto, and Bill Gates and other satanic "elites" own shares in their company. They want you sick, weak, and controllable. Glyphosate replaces glycine, and glycine is needed for glutathione, creatine, androgen receptors, heme iron synthesis for hemoglobin, catalase, mitochondrial ETC, and CYP450 enzymes, nitric oxide synthase, methylation buffering, collagen synthesis/formation, bile acid conjugation for detoxification/fat/vitamin absorption, RNA/DNA synthesis, inhibitory neurotransmission and sleep architecture, and driving healthy excitatory neurotransmission. It also displaces enzymes/proteins that contain copper, iron, cobalt/B12, manganese, magnesium, zinc, whilst also increasing aluminium toxicity, not only in plants, but also in your gut/body via ingestion, thus limiting your micronutrient intake, disrupting your biochemistry, and inducing further inflammation. It also limits gut production of beneficial tyrosine, tryptophan, phenylalanine, and histidine — potentially leading to lower levels of dopamine, serotonin, melatonin, thyroid hormone, adrenaline, noradrenaline, CoQ10, and melanin levels. It completely destroys your gut microbiome, minimizing beneficial strains whilst simultaneously promoting pathogenic strains.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 +1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.0 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Gold 5,199.2 USD/t oz. +.11%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.23%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.17 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.29 -1.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.0% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.36% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures -.30%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US/Iran War Uncertainty, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +2.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 75.68 -1.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.08 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.9 +1.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 129.4 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.2 +.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.2 +1.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -11.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.0 +.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +14.6% +2.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.65 -.01:  Growth Rate +15.4% -3.7 percentage points, P/E 21.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.51% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +28.0% +8.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.19 +.19: Growth Rate +23.9% unch., P/E 28.2 -.3 point
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 +10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.54 -.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.9% +.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.01% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.73 +8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 82.1% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 52.8%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -43 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -114 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my transport/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -3.5% 2) AI/Innovation -2.4% 3) Alt Energy -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• A, AEHR, FIHL, ACIW, FSLR, EE, A, PYPL, BLD, AMR, PZZA, NVDA, TGLS, SGML, THO, JEF, SGML, ARGX, GLW, ECG, BIDU, ODD, BMA, HEI/A, VCTR, PNTG, CIB, WHD, EME, NU, NVCR, ALKT, CLPT, ORA, FORM, ONC, PRM, HEI, SRPT, UCTT, SLNO, NOMD, VTS, INVX, PSTG, DCI, UHS, TNGX, ZM, MIRM, VITL, FOUR, FSK, PRCT, WD, METC, ACMR, QURE and ERII

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MLYS 2) EUFN 3) QURE 4) ARRY 5) IMAX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIDU 2) QURE 3) SOC 4) MNKD 5) JEF

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) PLDR 2) XLP 3) PFUT 4) KBWB 5) FDN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +2.7% 2) Road & Rail +2.2% 3) Airlines +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IBTA, SEZL, GCT, IONQ, OPRA, MEG, NVAX, SBGI, FA, VAC, FTDR, XNCR, IMAX, WRBY, LXU, LB, PENN, PVLA, PRMB, CBZ, WWW, ENOV, CHRM, MGNI, BSY, LUNR, SHAK, TTAN, PSKY, VERX, PRVA, RVLV, SJM, LSTR, DAVE, FIGS, WING, PCTY, TKO, NRDS, WIX, CRSP, TREE, HUBS, PHAT, MAN, EXLS, PPTA, FICO, EXLS, GDDY, NPKI, ACN, BAND, TEAM, SARO, KNTK, LNG, TWO, VECO, AXON, CELH, BL, FTAI, TIGO, BWIN, TFX, FVRR, JHG, MIDD, TYL, OUT, URBN, APPF, USAU, TFX, PATH, SONY, TTEK, FWRG, SSTK, ZS, MDB, EXPE, HAYW, AAL, CG, EPR, CTSH, NDAQ, XMTR, NXST, AAL, WK, GSHD, ESTC, DOX, TRMD, ACHC, LMND, CRGY, SAIL, SKYT, BRCB, TNET, SLM, SHOO, STN, DUOL, JOBY, PACS, PCOR, APA, FTRE, IQV, GOLF, KGS, INSW and XPO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRMB 2) ETN 3) BFLY 4) B 5) YPF 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CELH 2) SEZL 3) GCT 4) LMAT 5) VAC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) SMH 3) FTEC 4) KRE 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume