Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
AVID/.36
CDWC/.59
C/.94
CY/.18
DECK/.46
DCLK/.05
DHI/.71
EMC/.06
FCS/.15
GTK/.67
IBM/.93
LEXR/.12
NFLX/-.03
PMCS/.04
SEBL/.05
LUV/.04
SUNW/-.07
UNH/.87
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for April estimated at 28.25 vs. 25.33 in March.
Initial Jobless Claims last week estimated at 335K vs. 328k prior week.
Continuing Claims estimated at 3000K vs. 3010K prior.
Philly Fed for April estimated at 26.1 vs. 24.2 in March.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on PGL and TFX. GS reiterated Outperform on STLD, ACS and SLR. GS reiterated Outperform on MERQ and said it will likely beat revenue estimates this quarter.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are lower, led by Japan, as invesotors take profits on fears of rising interest rates in the U.S. Motorola has been criticized by cable-tv operators for not including digital video recorders with its set-top boxes more quickly, the Wall Street Journal reported. Securities regulators are divided over a proposal to impose a 2 percent penalty on investors who sell fund shares within five days after buying them, Dow Jones reported. The Palestinian Hamas group said U.S. President Bush's support for Israel retaining any West Bank settlements is the end of any possible U.S.-backed peace plan. The Palestinians want Israel to evacuate all territory taken in the 1967 war, Haaretz reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -2.00% to unch.
S&P 500 indicated -.18%.
NASDAQ indicated -.13%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect stocks to follow bonds tomorrow as numerous economic and corporate reports are released. If the reports are strong and yields don't rise I will add market exposure. However, if yields rise I will likely add a few more shorts. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, April 15, 2004
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
Wednesday Close
S&P 500 1,128.17 -.11%
NASDAQ 2,024.85 -.26%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +1.41%
Drugs +1.15%
Broadcasting +.89%
Lagging Sectors
HMO's -1.85%
Restaurants -2.22%
Hospitals -2.29%
Other
Crude Oil 36.73 +.03%
Natural Gas 5.76 +.23%
Gold 401.80 +.32%
Base Metals 111.63 +1.01%
U.S. Dollar 90.24 +.49%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.37% +.46%
VIX 15.62 -9.50%
Put/Call .80 -12.09%
NYSE Arms .62 -47.01%
After-hours Movers
SNDK -14.83% after beating 1Q estimates, investors disappointed in margins.
AAPL +9.31% after significantly beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
EXTR +7.64% after meeting 3Q estimates raising 4Q guidance.
PGTV -10.86% after DirectTV was awarded $51.5M from the company by a LA jury over a marketing agreement.
CNET -8.43% on profit-taking after beating 1Q, investors disappointed on guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAC, WAG and LIZ. GS reiterated Underperform on CNET.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as an above-expectations CPI report fueled concerns that the Fed is falling behind the curve on inflation. After the close, Amazon.com said it is testing a new internet search engine developed by its A9.com unit, the Wall Street Journal reported. Texas Instruments(TXN) said first-quarter net income more than tripled to $367M on the biggest sales increase in at least a decade, Bloomberg reported. Federated Department Stores said it is exploring the possible acquisition of the Marshall Field's department store group from Target Corporation, Bloomberg reported. Nokia, behind in phones with cameras, may lose lead to Samsung, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio rose slightly today as a few of my security-related shorts fell substantially and my longs were unchanged. It looks like the mania in the small/mid-cap security stocks has ended for now. I added a few shorts on the close, leaving the Portfolio with 50% net long market exposure. The new shorts are in the restaurant and retail sectors. Tough future comparisons, high energy prices, rising food prices, decelerating stimulus and rising interest rates will pressure these stocks in the intermediate-term. I am overweight cyclicals and technology on the long-side. Historically, these areas continue to outperform through multiple rate hikes.
NASDAQ 2,024.85 -.26%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +1.41%
Drugs +1.15%
Broadcasting +.89%
Lagging Sectors
HMO's -1.85%
Restaurants -2.22%
Hospitals -2.29%
Other
Crude Oil 36.73 +.03%
Natural Gas 5.76 +.23%
Gold 401.80 +.32%
Base Metals 111.63 +1.01%
U.S. Dollar 90.24 +.49%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.37% +.46%
VIX 15.62 -9.50%
Put/Call .80 -12.09%
NYSE Arms .62 -47.01%
After-hours Movers
SNDK -14.83% after beating 1Q estimates, investors disappointed in margins.
AAPL +9.31% after significantly beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
EXTR +7.64% after meeting 3Q estimates raising 4Q guidance.
PGTV -10.86% after DirectTV was awarded $51.5M from the company by a LA jury over a marketing agreement.
CNET -8.43% on profit-taking after beating 1Q, investors disappointed on guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAC, WAG and LIZ. GS reiterated Underperform on CNET.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as an above-expectations CPI report fueled concerns that the Fed is falling behind the curve on inflation. After the close, Amazon.com said it is testing a new internet search engine developed by its A9.com unit, the Wall Street Journal reported. Texas Instruments(TXN) said first-quarter net income more than tripled to $367M on the biggest sales increase in at least a decade, Bloomberg reported. Federated Department Stores said it is exploring the possible acquisition of the Marshall Field's department store group from Target Corporation, Bloomberg reported. Nokia, behind in phones with cameras, may lose lead to Samsung, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio rose slightly today as a few of my security-related shorts fell substantially and my longs were unchanged. It looks like the mania in the small/mid-cap security stocks has ended for now. I added a few shorts on the close, leaving the Portfolio with 50% net long market exposure. The new shorts are in the restaurant and retail sectors. Tough future comparisons, high energy prices, rising food prices, decelerating stimulus and rising interest rates will pressure these stocks in the intermediate-term. I am overweight cyclicals and technology on the long-side. Historically, these areas continue to outperform through multiple rate hikes.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,131.11 +.15%
NASDAQ 2,035.00 +.24%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.08%
Airlines +1.67%
Broadcasting +1.29%
Lagging Sectors
Fashion -.79%
Hospitals -1.64%
Restaurants -2.59%
Other
Crude Oil 36.56 -1.64%
Natural Gas 5.74 -.92%
Gold 401.80 -1.45%
Base Metals 110.88 +.33%
U.S. Dollar 90.40 +.66%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.39% +.92%
VIX 16.99 -1.39%
Put/Call .96 +5.49%
NYSE Arms .60 -48.72%
Market Movers
TTWO -13.09% after CEO resigned, delayed game releases and forecast an unexpected loss.
MCD -4.6% after reporting better-than-expected 1Q, CIBC downgrade.
HCA -5.0% after cutting 1Q and 04 forecast.
HDI +4.89% after beating 1Q estimates.
AUO +10.26% as investors anticipate strong flat-panel sales to Japanese companies.
SAFM -14.3% on rumors of an FDA warning letter.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for March +.5% vs. estimates of +.3%.
CPI Ex Food & Energy +.4% in March vs. estimates of +.2%.
Recommendations
NTIQ and KRI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. CBH rated Underperform at Keefe, Bruyette. JEF raised to Buy at Merrill, target $40. PRSF raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. X rated Outperform at CSFB, target $45. AIG raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $92. NXTP rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $17. ELX rated Underperform at RJ. Tom Kurlak, writing for TheStreet.com, is saying INTC is a very good buy right here on expected strength later in the year. Cramer, of TheStreet.com, says to buy tech and cyclicals through first 3 Fed hikes. He says homebuilders, retailers, banks, s&l, drugs, reits and insurers will underperform in this environment. TSC also recommending MIK and JBSS. Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on AMCC. GS reiterated Outperform on MO, TRMS, CAH and INTC. GS upgraded SRE to Outperform. Citi Smith Barney says to Buy CBH right now. Citi upgraded KPA to 1H. Citi thinks aluminum prices will continue to rise throughout year, favorite stocks AA and AL. Citi reiterated Buy on MCD, MER, COX and CMCSK.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising modestly mid-day as strong earnings reports offset a higher-than-expected CPI reading. A recent survey by Merrill Lynch says that 66% of investors are underweight bonds and inflation concerns are at a record high. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans for the first time ever to begin stockpiling influenza vaccine for children, the AP reported. The FDA approved the clinical testing of small sensors that can be placed beneath the skull of a paralyzed patient to help control computers just by thinking, the AP reported. al-Sadr has dropped all his conditions for talks with the U.S. on defusing the standoff and is ready to accept what the top Shiite clerics ask for, Agence France-Presse reported. Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose .5% in March, a fourth straight increase, boosted by rising energy, transportation and clothing costs. Excluding energy and food, core prices climbed the most in 2 years. Manhattan apartment prices rose to a record $998,905 in the first quarter as the city emerged from a recession and Wall Street bonuses fueled real estate purchases, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged on the day and I have not traded as of yet, leaving market exposure at 75% net long. I am surprised by today's strength considering the high CPI reading. Homebuilders, banks and I-banks all appear ready for a short-term bounce. If market strength persists throughout the day I will likely add exposure in the cyclical area. However, if the U.S. equity markets weaken this afternoon it will probably trigger sell signals in my short-term indicators, thus I will look to add a few shorts in the retail and restaurant sectors.
NASDAQ 2,035.00 +.24%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.08%
Airlines +1.67%
Broadcasting +1.29%
Lagging Sectors
Fashion -.79%
Hospitals -1.64%
Restaurants -2.59%
Other
Crude Oil 36.56 -1.64%
Natural Gas 5.74 -.92%
Gold 401.80 -1.45%
Base Metals 110.88 +.33%
U.S. Dollar 90.40 +.66%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.39% +.92%
VIX 16.99 -1.39%
Put/Call .96 +5.49%
NYSE Arms .60 -48.72%
Market Movers
TTWO -13.09% after CEO resigned, delayed game releases and forecast an unexpected loss.
MCD -4.6% after reporting better-than-expected 1Q, CIBC downgrade.
HCA -5.0% after cutting 1Q and 04 forecast.
HDI +4.89% after beating 1Q estimates.
AUO +10.26% as investors anticipate strong flat-panel sales to Japanese companies.
SAFM -14.3% on rumors of an FDA warning letter.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for March +.5% vs. estimates of +.3%.
CPI Ex Food & Energy +.4% in March vs. estimates of +.2%.
Recommendations
NTIQ and KRI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. CBH rated Underperform at Keefe, Bruyette. JEF raised to Buy at Merrill, target $40. PRSF raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. X rated Outperform at CSFB, target $45. AIG raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $92. NXTP rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $17. ELX rated Underperform at RJ. Tom Kurlak, writing for TheStreet.com, is saying INTC is a very good buy right here on expected strength later in the year. Cramer, of TheStreet.com, says to buy tech and cyclicals through first 3 Fed hikes. He says homebuilders, retailers, banks, s&l, drugs, reits and insurers will underperform in this environment. TSC also recommending MIK and JBSS. Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on AMCC. GS reiterated Outperform on MO, TRMS, CAH and INTC. GS upgraded SRE to Outperform. Citi Smith Barney says to Buy CBH right now. Citi upgraded KPA to 1H. Citi thinks aluminum prices will continue to rise throughout year, favorite stocks AA and AL. Citi reiterated Buy on MCD, MER, COX and CMCSK.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising modestly mid-day as strong earnings reports offset a higher-than-expected CPI reading. A recent survey by Merrill Lynch says that 66% of investors are underweight bonds and inflation concerns are at a record high. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plans for the first time ever to begin stockpiling influenza vaccine for children, the AP reported. The FDA approved the clinical testing of small sensors that can be placed beneath the skull of a paralyzed patient to help control computers just by thinking, the AP reported. al-Sadr has dropped all his conditions for talks with the U.S. on defusing the standoff and is ready to accept what the top Shiite clerics ask for, Agence France-Presse reported. Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose .5% in March, a fourth straight increase, boosted by rising energy, transportation and clothing costs. Excluding energy and food, core prices climbed the most in 2 years. Manhattan apartment prices rose to a record $998,905 in the first quarter as the city emerged from a recession and Wall Street bonuses fueled real estate purchases, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged on the day and I have not traded as of yet, leaving market exposure at 75% net long. I am surprised by today's strength considering the high CPI reading. Homebuilders, banks and I-banks all appear ready for a short-term bounce. If market strength persists throughout the day I will likely add exposure in the cyclical area. However, if the U.S. equity markets weaken this afternoon it will probably trigger sell signals in my short-term indicators, thus I will look to add a few shorts in the retail and restaurant sectors.
Wednesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
AMD/.033
AAPL/.10
BAC/1.80
CEC/.78
DAL/-3.02
ETN/.79
EXTR/-.01
HDI/.64
LRCX/.10
PGR/1.77
RMBS/.05
SNDK/.32
TXN/.21
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for March estimated up .3% vs. up .3% prior month.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for March estimated up .2% vs. up .2% prior month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PH.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly lower on U.S. inflation worries. New York Attorney General Spitzer wants regulators to require that new telecommunications technologies such as Internet telephone calls be monitored, the Wall Street Journal reported. President Bush said a free Iraq is necessary to thwart terrorism and promote peace in the Middle East, and Muslim militants won't prevent the June 30 transfer of power to a new Iraqi government, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -1.50% to +.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.06%.
NASDAQ indicated -.03%.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. stocks will likely rise or fall tomorrow on the CPI report. The market is very sensitive right now to any signs of inflation. Intel's report may lead to early weakness, however a benign CPI reading should result in a positive day for U.S. stocks. The Portfolio is 75% net long and I will make a decision after the CPI report on whether or not to increase exposure.
Company/Estimate
AMD/.033
AAPL/.10
BAC/1.80
CEC/.78
DAL/-3.02
ETN/.79
EXTR/-.01
HDI/.64
LRCX/.10
PGR/1.77
RMBS/.05
SNDK/.32
TXN/.21
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for March estimated up .3% vs. up .3% prior month.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for March estimated up .2% vs. up .2% prior month.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PH.
Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly lower on U.S. inflation worries. New York Attorney General Spitzer wants regulators to require that new telecommunications technologies such as Internet telephone calls be monitored, the Wall Street Journal reported. President Bush said a free Iraq is necessary to thwart terrorism and promote peace in the Middle East, and Muslim militants won't prevent the June 30 transfer of power to a new Iraqi government, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -1.50% to +.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.06%.
NASDAQ indicated -.03%.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. stocks will likely rise or fall tomorrow on the CPI report. The market is very sensitive right now to any signs of inflation. Intel's report may lead to early weakness, however a benign CPI reading should result in a positive day for U.S. stocks. The Portfolio is 75% net long and I will make a decision after the CPI report on whether or not to increase exposure.
Tuesday, April 13, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,129.44 -1.38%
NASDAQ 2,030.08 -1.71%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Transports -.78%
Drugs -.80%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -3.14%
Nanotechnology -3.23%
Iron/Steel -3.78%
Other
Crude Oil 37.21 unch.
Natural Gas 5.79 unch.
Gold 407.50 -.05%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.88 +.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.34% +2.68%
VIX 17.26 +12.96%
Put/Call .91 +21.33%
NYSE Arms 1.17 +44.44%
After-hours Movers
MWY +8.28% after Sumner Redstone, their biggest investor, said he may seek a board seat, boost his stake or take control of the company.
ADTN +6.72% after beating 4Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD, CLX and BBY. Cramer, of TheStreet.com is recommending cable stocks.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as a much stronger-than-expected retail sales report sparked inflation fears and sent interest rates higher. After the close, Blockbuster may pay a one-time dividend of $1B, or $4 to $6 a share, as part of a spin-off from Viacom, CNBC reported. Intel said its first-quarter net income almost doubled to $1.73B as the company boosted sales of its more profitable processors used in servers. Sales rose to $8.1B versus analysts' expectations of $8.16B.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today as my shorts fell substantially, offsetting most of the declines in my long positions. I did not trade today, leaving the Portfolio with 75% net long market exposure. I expect interest-rate sensitive stocks to remain under pressure for awhile.
NASDAQ 2,030.08 -1.71%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Transports -.78%
Drugs -.80%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -3.14%
Nanotechnology -3.23%
Iron/Steel -3.78%
Other
Crude Oil 37.21 unch.
Natural Gas 5.79 unch.
Gold 407.50 -.05%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.88 +.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.34% +2.68%
VIX 17.26 +12.96%
Put/Call .91 +21.33%
NYSE Arms 1.17 +44.44%
After-hours Movers
MWY +8.28% after Sumner Redstone, their biggest investor, said he may seek a board seat, boost his stake or take control of the company.
ADTN +6.72% after beating 4Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD, CLX and BBY. Cramer, of TheStreet.com is recommending cable stocks.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as a much stronger-than-expected retail sales report sparked inflation fears and sent interest rates higher. After the close, Blockbuster may pay a one-time dividend of $1B, or $4 to $6 a share, as part of a spin-off from Viacom, CNBC reported. Intel said its first-quarter net income almost doubled to $1.73B as the company boosted sales of its more profitable processors used in servers. Sales rose to $8.1B versus analysts' expectations of $8.16B.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today as my shorts fell substantially, offsetting most of the declines in my long positions. I did not trade today, leaving the Portfolio with 75% net long market exposure. I expect interest-rate sensitive stocks to remain under pressure for awhile.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,135.16 -.88%
NASDAQ 2,044.56 -1.01%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Computer Service -.11%
Papers -.24%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.10%
Utilities -2.22%
Iron/Steel -2.75%
Other
Crude Oil 37.37 -1.24%
Natural Gas 5.82 -3.23%
Gold 408.50 -2.95%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.91 +1.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.31% +1.88%
VIX 17.11 +11.98%
Put/Call .87 +16.0%
NYSE Arms .83 +2.47%
Market Movers
GSOF +37.42% on $380M acquisition by Pitney Bowes.
TSO +10.3% after significantly raising 1Q estimates.
LF +8.77% on Merrill upgrade to Buy.
NFI +17.5% on rebound from yesterday's fall after negative WSJ article.
PRX -9.66% after announcing $135M buyout of Kali Labs, lowering 1Q guidance.
Small/mid-cap security-related stocks down across the board on profit-taking after mania type runs.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March +1.8% vs. expectations of +.7%.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March +1.7% vs. expectations of .6%.
Business Inventories for February +.7% vs. expectations of +.5%.
Recommendations
DVN raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. KWK lowered to Sector Underperform by CIBC. TDS cut to Sell at Legg Mason. CCI raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. LF raised to Buy at Merrill, target $28. EYET rated new Buy at Merrill, target $45. ABT rated new Underperform at CSFB. MDT, GDT and BSX rated new Outperform at CSFB. WMGI rated new Buy at Bank of America. ESV rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $37. GSF rated Strong Buy at RJ, target $35. MXO and STX rated Underperform at RJ. TheStreet.com has a positive column on CUNO, saying it could be a buyout target. Cramer, of TheStreet.com, is recommending the April 30 calls on INTC for aggressive traders. TSC also has a positive column on RCKY. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on WMT, SPP, ROH, IGT, AGI and AYE. GS raised estimates on AMGN and BIIB, reiterating Outperform. Citi Smith Barney says to swap out of CPO and into BG. Citi reiterated 1H on CKFR, target $35. Citi rated PTV Buy, target $27. Citi rated SEE Buy, target $62. Citi says the pricing and lead-time environment in semis appears most positive for FCS, IRF, MXIM and LLTC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day as the exceptionally strong retail sales reports resulted in rising interest rates, a rising U.S. dollar and falling commodity prices. Krispy Kreme(KKD) may open doughnut shops in Japan under a joint agreement with Global Dining, Dow Jones reported. Google's new free email service is facing scrutiny from a California state senator who wants to block it because the services' advertising violates privacy, Reuters reported. The median sale price of a home in Los Angeles County rose 29% in March to a record $375,000 as concern about rising rates spurred buying, the LA Times reported. A 37-year-old man in Washington state was arrested by federal agents and charged with possessing ricin, a deadly biological agent, the AP reported. Phelps Dodge and other companies that dig copper, silver and other metals are hiring workers and reopening mines as prices rise and demand for copper booms in China, the LA Times reported. Merrill Lynch said first-quarter profit rose 95% as revenue from bond trading and underwriting soared and an improving economy boosted fees from stock sales and mergers. Sales at U.S. retailers rose 1.8% in March, the biggest increase in a year, led by purchases of autos, furniture and building materials. Sales at building materials and garden supply stores rose 10.6%, the largest gain ever recorded. Economists at Morgan Stanley raised their estimate for 1Q GDP growth to 5.0%, Bloomberg reported. Pornographic "spam" must be labeled as such starting May 19, or senders will face fines, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down today as my falling shorts are not enough to offset 75% net long market exposure. The yield on the 10-yr T-note broke through the top of its intermediate-term downtrend line at 4.22%. The top of the long-term downtrend line is around 5.75%. I still expect the Fed to begin raising rates at the June 29-30 meeting, while the market is expecting the first increase at the September 21 meeting. I also still expect a 1Q GDP number north of 5%, while current market expectations are for 4.6% growth. Finally, I expect the market to remain relatively weak throughout the day. I will likely add exposure into this weakness as I expect a bounce tomorrow on the President's speech, combined with falling energy prices and great earnings reports.
NASDAQ 2,044.56 -1.01%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.65%
Computer Service -.11%
Papers -.24%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -2.10%
Utilities -2.22%
Iron/Steel -2.75%
Other
Crude Oil 37.37 -1.24%
Natural Gas 5.82 -3.23%
Gold 408.50 -2.95%
Base Metals 110.51 -.91%
U.S. Dollar 89.91 +1.07%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.31% +1.88%
VIX 17.11 +11.98%
Put/Call .87 +16.0%
NYSE Arms .83 +2.47%
Market Movers
GSOF +37.42% on $380M acquisition by Pitney Bowes.
TSO +10.3% after significantly raising 1Q estimates.
LF +8.77% on Merrill upgrade to Buy.
NFI +17.5% on rebound from yesterday's fall after negative WSJ article.
PRX -9.66% after announcing $135M buyout of Kali Labs, lowering 1Q guidance.
Small/mid-cap security-related stocks down across the board on profit-taking after mania type runs.
Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March +1.8% vs. expectations of +.7%.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March +1.7% vs. expectations of .6%.
Business Inventories for February +.7% vs. expectations of +.5%.
Recommendations
DVN raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. KWK lowered to Sector Underperform by CIBC. TDS cut to Sell at Legg Mason. CCI raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. LF raised to Buy at Merrill, target $28. EYET rated new Buy at Merrill, target $45. ABT rated new Underperform at CSFB. MDT, GDT and BSX rated new Outperform at CSFB. WMGI rated new Buy at Bank of America. ESV rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $37. GSF rated Strong Buy at RJ, target $35. MXO and STX rated Underperform at RJ. TheStreet.com has a positive column on CUNO, saying it could be a buyout target. Cramer, of TheStreet.com, is recommending the April 30 calls on INTC for aggressive traders. TSC also has a positive column on RCKY. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on WMT, SPP, ROH, IGT, AGI and AYE. GS raised estimates on AMGN and BIIB, reiterating Outperform. Citi Smith Barney says to swap out of CPO and into BG. Citi reiterated 1H on CKFR, target $35. Citi rated PTV Buy, target $27. Citi rated SEE Buy, target $62. Citi says the pricing and lead-time environment in semis appears most positive for FCS, IRF, MXIM and LLTC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are falling mid-day as the exceptionally strong retail sales reports resulted in rising interest rates, a rising U.S. dollar and falling commodity prices. Krispy Kreme(KKD) may open doughnut shops in Japan under a joint agreement with Global Dining, Dow Jones reported. Google's new free email service is facing scrutiny from a California state senator who wants to block it because the services' advertising violates privacy, Reuters reported. The median sale price of a home in Los Angeles County rose 29% in March to a record $375,000 as concern about rising rates spurred buying, the LA Times reported. A 37-year-old man in Washington state was arrested by federal agents and charged with possessing ricin, a deadly biological agent, the AP reported. Phelps Dodge and other companies that dig copper, silver and other metals are hiring workers and reopening mines as prices rise and demand for copper booms in China, the LA Times reported. Merrill Lynch said first-quarter profit rose 95% as revenue from bond trading and underwriting soared and an improving economy boosted fees from stock sales and mergers. Sales at U.S. retailers rose 1.8% in March, the biggest increase in a year, led by purchases of autos, furniture and building materials. Sales at building materials and garden supply stores rose 10.6%, the largest gain ever recorded. Economists at Morgan Stanley raised their estimate for 1Q GDP growth to 5.0%, Bloomberg reported. Pornographic "spam" must be labeled as such starting May 19, or senders will face fines, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down today as my falling shorts are not enough to offset 75% net long market exposure. The yield on the 10-yr T-note broke through the top of its intermediate-term downtrend line at 4.22%. The top of the long-term downtrend line is around 5.75%. I still expect the Fed to begin raising rates at the June 29-30 meeting, while the market is expecting the first increase at the September 21 meeting. I also still expect a 1Q GDP number north of 5%, while current market expectations are for 4.6% growth. Finally, I expect the market to remain relatively weak throughout the day. I will likely add exposure into this weakness as I expect a bounce tomorrow on the President's speech, combined with falling energy prices and great earnings reports.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)