Wednesday, April 14, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,128.17 -.11%
NASDAQ 2,024.85 -.26%


Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +1.41%
Drugs +1.15%
Broadcasting +.89%

Lagging Sectors
HMO's -1.85%
Restaurants -2.22%
Hospitals -2.29%

Other
Crude Oil 36.73 +.03%
Natural Gas 5.76 +.23%
Gold 401.80 +.32%
Base Metals 111.63 +1.01%
U.S. Dollar 90.24 +.49%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.37% +.46%
VIX 15.62 -9.50%
Put/Call .80 -12.09%
NYSE Arms .62 -47.01%

After-hours Movers
SNDK -14.83% after beating 1Q estimates, investors disappointed in margins.
AAPL +9.31% after significantly beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
EXTR +7.64% after meeting 3Q estimates raising 4Q guidance.
PGTV -10.86% after DirectTV was awarded $51.5M from the company by a LA jury over a marketing agreement.
CNET -8.43% on profit-taking after beating 1Q, investors disappointed on guidance.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAC, WAG and LIZ. GS reiterated Underperform on CNET.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower as an above-expectations CPI report fueled concerns that the Fed is falling behind the curve on inflation. After the close, Amazon.com said it is testing a new internet search engine developed by its A9.com unit, the Wall Street Journal reported. Texas Instruments(TXN) said first-quarter net income more than tripled to $367M on the biggest sales increase in at least a decade, Bloomberg reported. Federated Department Stores said it is exploring the possible acquisition of the Marshall Field's department store group from Target Corporation, Bloomberg reported. Nokia, behind in phones with cameras, may lose lead to Samsung, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio rose slightly today as a few of my security-related shorts fell substantially and my longs were unchanged. It looks like the mania in the small/mid-cap security stocks has ended for now. I added a few shorts on the close, leaving the Portfolio with 50% net long market exposure. The new shorts are in the restaurant and retail sectors. Tough future comparisons, high energy prices, rising food prices, decelerating stimulus and rising interest rates will pressure these stocks in the intermediate-term. I am overweight cyclicals and technology on the long-side. Historically, these areas continue to outperform through multiple rate hikes.

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