Monday, April 05, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimates
MTZ/.13
MBT/5.19

Splits
TACT 3-for-2

Economic Data
ISM Non-Manufacturing is estimated at 61.5 for March vs. 60.8 for February.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on ADP and mixed on HD, WMT. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on GE, WMT and EWH, mixed on TWX, TOL, UOPX, XOM, CHV and negative on CSCO and MCD. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on MICC and mixed on LUV, MRK. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on GE, MCK, AMGN, HPQ, MSFT, TXN, CKFR, IFIN, TECH, CSCO, XOM and negative on IR, SUNW, SEPR, PCS and BIIB. Byte and Switch has positive article on storage vendors. Barron's has positive columns on the LCD market, AIG(target $93), NTRT and negative columns on the U.S. dollar and REV. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX and CFC. GS raised estimates on broadlines retailers, favorites are TIF, FD and WMT. GS says that recent crude oil inventory builds points to increased likelihood of a continuation of the recent correction in crude oil and related equities.

Weekend News
GlaxoSmithKline(GSK) and Pfizer(PFE) are preparing bids of about $1.85B for Roche Holding's consumer health-care business, the Sunday Telegraph reported. Spanish police evacuated a building in the Madrid suburb of Lehanes after bombs were found, radio Cadena Ser reported. Red Bull and other energy drinks have surpassed bottled water as the fastest growing segment of the beverage industry, the NY Times reported. Microsoft's settlement with Sun Micro could help it overturn the European Commission's ruling, the Financial Times reported. Asian stocks are rising on optimism that the strongest U.S. jobs report since the stock market bubble burst will benefit exporters, reported Bloomberg.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +2.00% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ indicated -.03%.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week. U.S. stocks may rise in the morning on strength in Asia and what should be a strong ISM Non-manufacturing report. However, I think the major indices will consolidate this week, providing opportunities on both the long and short sides. I will continue to short homebuilders and oil service stocks on any short-term strength and will add technology stocks, specifically semis/equipment, on any weakness. I am keeping a close eye on software stocks as well. They will benefit disproportionately from an significant increase in employment.

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