Friday, April 23, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,139.02 -.08%
NASDAQ 2,043.26 +.56%


Leading Sectors
Fashion +1.32%
Semis +1.17%
Broadband +.84%

Lagging Sectors
Iron/Steel -1.78%
Tobacco -2.06%
Airlines -2.07%

Other
Crude Oil 36.27 -1.20%
Natural Gas 5.56 -1.12%
Gold 394.80 +.23%
Base Metals 107.35 +.14%
U.S. Dollar 91.13 +.34%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.42% +1.07%
VIX 14.10 -3.42%
Put/Call .63 unch.
NYSE Arms .72 -1.37%

Market Movers
MSFT +6.01% after beating 3Q estimates, raising 05 earnings and lowering 05 sales forecasts.
GLW +16.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
MCRL +14.1% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
MCHP +14.30% after beating 4Q estimates, raising 1Q forecast and announcing 2.5M buyback.
TESS +19.62% on better-than-expected 4Q and raised 05 guidance.
SYNA +20.64% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance.
CLS +16.6% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
PKTR +16.56% after beating 1Q estimates.
BWLD +15.38% after beating 1Q estimates, raising 2Q guidance and RBC upgrade to Outperform.
MTLG -19.2% after beating 1Q estimate, but lower 2Q guidance.
ABTL -23.83% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 04 forecast.
PLCM -13.15% after beating 1Q estimate, but gave disappointing guidance.
STE -12.43% after meeting 4Q estimate, lowering 1Q and 04 guidance.
RSYS -11.11% after meeting 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q guidance.

Economic Data
Durable Goods Orders for March +3.4% versus +.7% estimate and +3.8% prior month.
Durable Goods Oders Less Transportation +3.3% versus +1.4% estimate and +1.1% prior month.

Recommendations
KSS raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $52. PGR and PH cut to Reduce at UBS. AT and WC raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. CLS raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC, target $26. CELG raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel, target $70.00. NUE cut to Underweight at Prudential. HOT raised to Buy at Merrill, target $46. MCHP raised to Buy at Legg Mason, target $36. GBP rated Underperform at CSFB. ASN rated Outperform at CSFB, target $30. CNX raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns. BRCM rated Outperform by Raymond James, target $50. RYL raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $135. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MERQ, AA, GLW, BAX, PHCC, GDT, IGT, AMGN, GILD, AXP, TPX, and reiterated Underperform on EW, VRSN and T. Citi Smith Barney said to Buy NCX, target $32. Citi reiterated Buy on UPS, raised estimates, target $80. Citi reiterated Buy on MSFT, raised estimates and target to $34. Citi said AMGN is top biotech pick. Citi reiterated Buy on AXP, target $57. Citi upgraded FISV to Buy, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on DOX, target $34. Citi reiterated Buy on OHP, $70 target. TheStreet.com has a column saying Chinese ADRs are good for a long trade here.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as a much better-than-expected Durable Goods Report sent interest rates higher, the U.S. dollar higher and crude oil lower. The U.S. FDA is seeking reports of any problems encountered with Boston Scientific's Taxus stent, the NY Times said. Merrill Lynch ousted Deutsche Bank last quarter as the most accurate forecaster of foreign exchange rates, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Durable Goods Orders rose 3.4% in March, significantly beating estimates, as corporate spending accelerated on machinery, metals and computers. "Spending on software and equipment appears to be increasing quite strongly," Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said. "Today's report suggests business investment exceeded 10% for a third straight quarter," said Steven Wieting, an economist at Citi Smith Barney said. U.S. Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt today said a U.S. offensive on the city of Fallujah may resume shortly if the heavy weapons of foreign fighters aren't handed over to U.S.-led forces soon, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down slightly today, as most stocks are lower and my 125% market exposure is hurting performance. I have not traded as of yet and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. I expect stocks to improve this afternoon as investors anticipate the positive collateral effects from the recent good news by numerous bell-weather companies. Bears are selling on interest rate and Iraq fears, both of which are widely known.

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