Monday, April 19, 2004

Monday Close

S&P 500 1,135.82 +.11%
NASDAQ 2,020.43 +1.24%


Leading Sectors
Broadband +2.11%
Wireless +2.10%
Biotech +1.93%

Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -1.11%
Airlines -1.26%
Homebuilders -1.34%

Other
Crude Oil 37.42 unch.
Natural Gas 5.51 -.02%
Gold 400.90 -.07%
Base Metals 115.07 +1.89%
U.S. Dollar 89.80 -.16%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.37% +.83%
VIX 15.42 +3.21%
Put/Call .66 -14.29%
NYSE Arms .97 -32.64%

After-hours Movers
JCOM +10.34% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q and 04 forecast.
SPRT +9.36% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q and 04 forecast.
PXLW +6.80% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q forecast.
MGAM +5.65% after announcing it will replace Pacific Sunwear in S&P 600.
NTPA -41.32% after missing 2Q forecast substantially.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO, CCE, CEN and PEP. APH raised to Buy 2 at UBS.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mostly higher as the 1990-2000 support level held on the NASDAQ, providing the catalyst for tech and biotech stocks to strengthen throughout the day. After the close, Saudi Arabia said it was determined to stamp out terrorist groups, the country's leader Crown Prince Abdullah said, Reuters reported. The U.S. will lift economic sanctions on Libya this week after the country agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons program, the Financial Times reported. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed a year-over-year gain of 4.4%, the most since 1984.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio fell slightly today as I took some losses on a few shorts early in the morning. The unexpected and sustained strength in technology today led me to add a few new long positions in the afternoon. The Portfolio is now 75% net long. The 4.4% gain in the Leading Indicator Index is just another in a string of economic reports that show the best U.S. economic growth since the early 80's. The Federal Reserve has interest rates at emergency levels to combat the aftermath of the bursting stock market bubble, the ensuing recession, multiple corporate scandals, September 11th attacks and what appeared to be the beginnings of a deflationary spiral. Now that it is apparent that the U.S. economy has worked through most of these issues the Fed will likely raise rates from their current emergency levels at the June 28-30 meeting. This does not mean they are necessarily worried about inflation; rather rates should not be at emergency levels in the current vigorous economic climate. The quicker the Fed acts, the sooner stocks will resume their current bull run as it will sooth the concerns of investors that are overly concerned about an imminent and drastic rise in inflation.

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