Monday, April 26, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,135.28 -.47%
NASDAQ 2,035.91 -.67%


Leading Sectors
Biotech +3.32%
Oil Service +.96%
Energy +.82%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.55%
HMO's -2.25%
Semis -2.93%

Other
Crude Oil 36.92 +1.26%
Natural Gas 5.75 +3.3%
Gold 396.60 +.23%
Base Metals 107.50 +.14%
U.S. Dollar 90.76 -.35%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.43% -.63%
VIX 14.99 +7.0%
Put/Call .64 -4.48%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +32.50%

Market Movers
OSIP +127.0% after saying their experimental Tarceva drug improved survival for lung-cancer patients.
IGT -4.8% on profit-taking and concerns over slowing growth.
ABGX +19.0% as investors anticipate positive results on its cancer drug.
TXU +13.09% after agreeing to sell its Australian unit to Sinapore Power for $3.72B.
VALU +24.4% after saying it will pay a special, one-time dividend of $17.50 a share from retained earnings.
ONXX +16.4% as investors anticipate positive results on its cancer drug.
DNA +12.2% on partnership with OSIP.
SCSC +13.2% on continued rise after strong 3Q results and 4Q guidance.
FHCC -13.5% after cutting 1Q/04 guidance.

Economic Data
New Home Sales for March 1228K versus estimates of 1173K and 1128K prior month.

Recommendations
Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, had a positive column on cable stocks, favorites are CMCS/A, TWX and CHTR. Goldman Sachs think AMIS will report at high end of guidance. GS reiterated Outperform on DNA, AMR, SII, ADP, WMT, ALK, PFE, HD, BBY, SPLS, PETC, EBAY, KO and UTX. GS reiterated Underperform on PGL, FHCC, FISV, CR and HUM. GS upgraded gold industry to Outperform, sees 30% upside, favorites are NEM and PDG. GS upgraded PXD and XRX to Outperform. Citi SmithBarney reiterated view of Buying homebuilders on weakness. Citi reiterated Buy on CAT, target raised to $106. NSM and AKS rated Underperform at JP Morgan. MXIM, ISG, SIR and ADI rated Overweight at JP Morgan. HLT, LHO and HOT raised to Buy 2 at UBS. WC rated Outperform at CSFB, target $49. PPS cut to Sell at Bank of America. GM raised to Overweight at Lehman. HSY raised to Buy at Merrill, target $97. MTLG raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $28.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day as weakness in Semiconductors and HMO's is more than offsetting the very strong Biotechnology sector. Comcast is considering a shareholder dividend and may offer to buy back stock, the New York Post reported. Roche Holding, Genentech and OSI Pharmaceuticals said their experimental Tarceva medicine extended the lives of lung-cancer patients who no longer responded to other treatments in trials. "This is the first time that any drug in this class has shown a survival benefit," Bill Burns, head of Roche's drug division, said in an interview. U.S. sales of new homes rose to a record 1.228 million annual rate in March, exceeding forecasts, as cheap financing and an improving job market persuaded Americans to invest in real estate, Bloomberg reported. A "dangerous situation" is developing in the Iraqi city of Najaf, where insurgents are stockpiling weapons in schools and mosques, reported Bloomberg. President Bush urged Congress to pass measures that would help provide every community high-speed Internet access, give Americans online access to their medical records with 10 years and expand federal efforts to develop hydrogen as an alternative fuel source, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up slightly today as one of my long biotechnology positions is up substantially, offsetting losses in other longs. I rotated out of a few semiconductor long positions and into a couple of new biotech positions, leaving the Portfolio with 100% net long market exposure. While it is positive that the bond market is rising on the exceptionally strong housing report, it is negative that semis are breaking down again. I expect stocks to stabilize shortly and begin moving higher into the close. However, if the major indices weaken on the close, I will likely cut market exposure to 75% net long.

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